The Qingming holiday has ended, and there is no need to say more about the wind and rain, and the answer is directly on: the flow of the main funds has become clear, and this direction is very likely to become the main line of the market in April, but unfortunately many people still don't know, and there will be a good show to be staged tomorrow!
During the holiday season, the non-farm payrolls data released in the United States was eye-catching, in stark contrast to the worse than expected forecasts of many experts at the end of March. Specific data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls increased by 303,000 in March, much higher than the market expectation of an increase of 214,000, and the previous value was revised from an increase of 275,000 to an increase of 270,000. The strong data cooled expectations for a rate cut in June. However, the market reacted unexpectedly, with the dollar index rising sharply, while gold and US stocks also rose in tandem, a phenomenon that contradicts conventional wisdom. It has been pointed out before the holiday that the heat of the gold market has not subsided from the fact that the main contract of the Shanghai Gold Exchange has exceeded 200 billion in a single day. Based on the above situation, it is expected that the pro-cyclical sector represented by precious metals and industrial metals is expected to start an upward trend again on Monday, which coincides with the direction of attention that Fengyu has repeatedly emphasized before.
Those who have not been able to participate in the pro-cyclical sector in time should not be too annoyed, because the current US stock market as a whole is still on an upward trend, and Nvidia, a leader in artificial intelligence, has also shown strong performance. In addition, the central bank once again sent timely rain, and launched a major policy during the festival, that is, to set up a re-lending line of 500 billion yuan specifically for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation enterprises, with an interest rate of only 1.75%, and allowed to be extended, which is undoubtedly a major positive for the development of scientific and technological innovation enterprises. You must know that even if the central bank implements a RRR cut, the scale of liquidity released is usually only about 500 billion yuan. The main funds originally had a positive attitude towards the new quality productivity sector, and with the dual blessing of the continued strength of the overseas technology sector and favorable domestic policies, the market is still full of expectations tomorrow.
Despite the current positive news in the market, the cooling of US interest rate cut expectations means a postponement of the global monetary easing environment, which will lead to a delay in the re-inflow of international funds into emerging economies, including A-shares. For most A-share sectors, this indicates that the expected recovery market needs to be patient. Therefore, despite the continuous positive news for the pro-cyclical and technology sectors, if the market direction is not accurately grasped, it may still face a situation of "making money on the index but not making money". In any case, keeping up with the pace of the main funds will always capture more investment opportunities.
To summarize the above, whether the market starts with a low or high opening tomorrow, the main line will still revolve around the theme of price increases and new quality productivity.
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