Chinanews.com, April 7 (Reporter He Luman, Zhang Aolin, Chen Caixia) expelled the ambassador, broke into the embassy to arrest people, and suspended diplomatic relations...... In just two days, the situation between Mexico and Ecuador has changed dramatically.
Immediately afterward, Nicaragua also announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Ecuador. Colombia, Honduras, Venezuela and other governments and international organizations have commented on the severance of diplomatic relations between Mexico and Erese, calling on every country to abide by the "principles of international law and the democratic compact".
On April 5, local time, Ecuadorian police tried to enter the Mexican Embassy in Ecuador.
Why did the relations between Mexico, Nicaragua, and Ecuador deteriorate sharply, and how will this incident affect the regional situation? Chinanews specially invited Cui Shoujun, professor of the School of International Relations and director of the Institute of International Development of the Chinese University, and Xu Shicheng, a researcher at the Institute of Latin American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, to give an in-depth interpretation.
Diplomatic relations have been established for nearly 200 years
The contradiction between the left and right wings of Meah led to confrontation
Talking about the relationship between Mexico and Ecuador, Cui Shoujun said that the two countries had established diplomatic relations as early as 1830, and Mexico also opened a consulate in Guayaquil in 1837, which was also Mexico's first diplomatic mission in South America, and the two countries have a deep relationship.
In December 2018, then-Ecuadorian President Moreno personally traveled to Mexico City to attend the inauguration ceremony of Mexico's current President Andrés López.
However, Cui Shoujun pointed out that due to the different governing concepts of the left and right wings, the relationship between Mexico and Era has undergone significant changes in recent years.
Cui Shoujun said that due to the new crown epidemic and other reasons, former Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso encountered public health or economic challenges after coming to power in 2021, which led to a more serious political crisis and civil strife, and Lasso had to dissolve the parliament in May 2023 ahead of schedule.
Ecuadorian President Noboa, who will come to power in the 2023 election, belongs to the right-wing camp, while Mexican President Andrés López López is a left-wing politician. Cui Shoujun pointed out that there is a big difference between the two concepts of values and governing concepts.
In December 2023, relations between the two countries took a sharp turn for the worse. Earlier that month, former Ecuadorian vice president Jorge Grass, who had been sentenced by the Ecuadorian government for corruption, entered the Mexican embassy in Ecuador to ask for asylum because of what he said was a "political persecution," while Ecuadorian authorities denied Glass's claims. Since then, Glass has been residing at the Mexican Embassy.
On the evening of April 5, 2024, Ecuadorian security forces entered the Mexican embassy in Ecuador and arrested Grass, who was in the embassy, which was also one of the triggers of the diplomatic crisis.
As for why Mexico wants to protect Grass, Cui Shoujun believes that the main reason is that López has a good relationship with Ecuador's previous left-wing ruling party, and Glass served as vice president of Ecuador's left-wing government from 2013 to 2017.
Xu Shicheng pointed out that the key point of dispute between the two sides is whether the Ecuadorian side has the right to enter the Mexican embassy to "arrest people".
On the one hand, Mexico believes that its embassy in Ecuador, which is equivalent to an area under Mexican sovereignty, is protected by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (Vienna Convention), and that Ecuador cannot send security forces into the embassy to arrest "political prisoners".
Ecuador, on the other hand, argues that Grasse is not a "political prisoner" but a "criminal offender" suspected of corruption, so it is not protected by the Vienna Convention, and the Ecuadorian police have the right to arrest him.
Data map: Mexican President Manuel López.
Mexico's general election is approaching
Can relations between the two countries turn around?
In addition to Ecuador's "arrest" operation to break into the embassy, another trigger for this diplomatic crisis is López recently pointed out that there was "fraud" in Ecuador's 2023 presidential election, and referred to the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, one of the Ecuadorian presidential candidates at the time, before the election, saying that some Ecuadorian media "unjustly" identified another candidate, Luisa González, as related to this matter, thus affecting the election.
According to foreign media analysis, the reason why López suddenly pointed the finger at Ecuador is because Mexico is scheduled to hold a general election in June 2024, and López intends to use Ecuador's issue to compare the violence in which several local candidates have been assassinated and killed in Mexico's current election season, and to warn Mexico that "media platform owners and those involved in such election activities should be responsible".
Given that Mexico's economy and society are still in the "fourth transformation" phase proposed by the current President Andrés López, whether López's National Regeneration Movement party can continue to win an absolute majority in the House of Representatives and thus better advance his reform agenda will be a key point in Mexico's election.
Cui Shoujun pointed out that there are also cases of assassinations of candidates in the general election in Mexico, so López believes that this may be influenced by right-wing forces, "so he mentioned the Ecuadorian election issue at this time, which is a point."
It should be said that López wants to express his views and opinions through this matter. Cui Shoujun believes that López wants Claudia Huinbaum, the presidential candidate of the National Regeneration Movement Party, to win because Hinbaum shares López's political views.
Xu Shicheng also pointed out that among the three current presidential candidates in Mexico, Hinbaum, the presidential candidate of the National Regeneration Movement Party and the former mayor of Mexico City, is more likely to be elected, and Hinbaum is also a leftist.
Regarding whether there will be a turnaround in the relations between the two countries in the near future, Cui Shoujun believes that "because the Ecuadorian side went directly to the Mexican embassy in Ecuador to arrest the former vice president, this matter has a great impact and is also contrary to the basic principles of international law. ”
The severance of diplomatic relations continues to ferment
Latin America may be united or affected
As the diplomatic turmoil in Mexico and Era continues to trigger strong reactions in Latin American society, on April 6, local time, the Nicaraguan government also announced that it will sever diplomatic relations with Ecuador with immediate effect.
In addition, the governments of Cuba, Venezuela, Honduras, Colombia and other countries commented on this, calling for respect for the basic right of asylum agreed upon by international history, and expressing opposition to the actions of the Ecuadorian security agencies in the Mexican embassy in Eritrea.
The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) has planned an emergency meeting on 8 April to discuss the matter.
According to Cui Shoujun's analysis, Mexico has a high influence among left-wing regimes in Latin America. The announcement of the severance of diplomatic relations between the left-wing government of Nicaragua and Ecuador at this time responds to and expresses the unified political voice of the left-wing camp to a certain extent, and is a kind of resistance to the right-wing forces.
Data map: Argentine President Milley.
"In recent years, far-right forces have been on the rise again, and the political situation in Latin America has undergone great changes. Xu Shicheng explained that since the inauguration of Argentine right-wing Milley as president in 2023, internal contradictions in Latin America have been escalating.
Xu Shicheng pointed out that on March 27, Colombia expelled Argentine diplomats in protest of Milley's "inappropriate remarks". Milley recently met with General Laura Richardson, commander of the US South, and stressed the need to "strengthen the strategic alliance with the United States" and allow the United States to establish military bases in its southern ......" This series of events is bound to have an impact on the integration and unity of Latin American countries. ”
Cui Shoujun also said that after Argentine President Milley came to power, the right-wing forces in Latin America have recovered, and the United States is happy to see right-wing parties occupy a dominant position in the region. (ENDS)