Chinanews.com, April 7 (Wei Chenxi) A few days ago, 77-year-old U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen flew to Guangzhou Baiyun Airport - this is her second visit to China after July 2023, and she has also become a cabinet official who has visited China twice during the Biden administration.
China's Ministry of Finance announced on the 3rd that as agreed by China and the United States, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will visit China from April 4 to 9, 2024.
Wang Yong, a professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University and director of the Center for American Studies, pointed out in an exclusive interview with Chinanews that Yellen's visit to China after nine months has sent multiple signals that the dialogue will help the two countries enhance understanding, reduce miscalculations, and promote the stability of China-US relations.
Data map: Yellen. Photo by China News Service reporter Deng Min
What is the difference between the two visits?
"The current atmosphere in Sino-US relations has changed to a certain extent. Wang Yong analyzed that Yellen, during her last visit, took the initiative to propose that China-US economic and trade relations are very important, and that "economic decoupling" with China will have a disastrous impact on the United States, and this statement has played a role in improving the atmosphere of Sino-US relations within the US government.
Regarding Yellen's second visit to China, Wang Yong said that the focus will be on holding a dialogue with China on macroeconomic policies and understanding the future direction of relevant policies.
"This builds on the last visit, where the two countries have established a macroeconomic policy dialogue mechanism in various areas such as fiscal and monetary policies. Wang Yong said.
On the other hand, the timing of Yellen's visit to China is rather special.
First of all, the 2024 U.S. election is getting closer and closer, and the competition between the two parties is getting hotter.
Wang Yong said that in the increasingly complex domestic election political environment in the United States, whether it is Yellen or US Secretary of Commerce Raimondo, who visited China before, they represent the interests of the US business community that advocates maintaining economic cooperation between the United States and China.
Data map: The White House. Photo by China News Service reporter Chen Mengtong
Second, recently, the domestic economic problems in the United States have become prominent, such as high inflation and the US debt crisis, and the US government has a relatively strong demand for economic cooperation.
Wang Yong pointed out that the US macroeconomic policy is currently in a "dilemma": on the one hand, inflation in the United States is under control on the surface, but in fact the public does not feel it obviously, and the United States is still facing pressure to maintain interest rate hikes; on the other hand, the high-cost borrowing environment in the United States has greatly increased the bankruptcy rate of American companies and aggravated the US debt crisis.
Yellen's trip comes as the Biden administration tries to "balance" its tough stance on China, including restricting access to U.S. technology and retaining tariffs on billions of Chinese exports, while keeping regular communication channels open and avoiding economic war, according to a New York Times analysis.
Wang Yong further pointed out that Yellen's visit to China using trade as a "cover" and accusing China of so-called "unfair trade practices" is actually a rhetoric of the US side. The United States expects China to help it solve its macroeconomic problems, and hopes that China will increase its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, or at least not reduce its holdings of U.S. bonds, which will help stabilize the U.S. economy. "I think that's the essence of Yellen's visit to China. ”
"Small courtyard" becomes "large courtyard"?
Yellen's visit to China has attracted much attention, and a high-frequency word has appeared in foreign media reports - "overcapacity".
Some media observed that on April 5, when Yellen spoke at an event hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China in Guangzhou, the term "overcapacity" was mentioned five times.
Wang Yong believes that Yellen's trip has an obvious purpose, which is to convey to China on behalf of the Biden administration the so-called concern of the United States about the "overcapacity" of China's industry and the "unfair treatment" of American workers and enterprises, and to put pressure on China to make adjustments in relevant policies.
In fact, not long before her visit to China, Yellen had just encountered a "rollover" in the field of public opinion.
During a visit to a photovoltaic cell factory in Georgia, she called China's new energy industry "overcapacity," which she said "upsets global prices and hurts American businesses and workers." As soon as this remark came out, many international netizens choked up, and some accused the United States of being "very hypocritical" and "engaging in double standards."
Wang Yong said that behind the so-called "fair treatment" of the United States is unfair trade practices, which violate the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), disrupt global supply chains, and lead to economic instability in many countries.
In fact, under the guise of "threatening U.S. national security", the U.S. government has taken a series of measures: suppressing TikTok, restricting overseas investment in Chinese companies, imposing sanctions on China's advanced chipmakers, and planning to impose tariffs on Chinese imports of green energy technology......
Just a few days ago, the U.S. government revised its semiconductor export control order to China, further tightening restrictions on China's access to U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) chips and chip-making tools.
Data map: chip.
Wang Yong believes that behind the so-called "small courtyard and high wall" policy pursued by the United States against China, the "small courtyard" is gradually turning into a "large courtyard."
He pointed out that the United States has carried out unlimited suppression of China in artificial intelligence chip manufacturing, and these measures have caused a certain negative impact on bilateral relations, and in the long run, Sino-US relations may become a "naked power contest relationship", and the two countries have fallen into a state of vicious competition.
In Wang Yong's view, the game between China and the United States has now entered the stage of "strategic stalemate". On the one hand, the United States has adopted a rather proactive posture in an attempt to suppress China in all directions, but on the other hand, it has found that its game with China is quite difficult, and it believes that China is a "difficult bone to gnaw."
"The United States has found that China has strong economic and technological strength, and it is politically united. Wang Yong said that although the US government still maintains a state of competition with China and tries to contain China's development, it is only afraid that it will backfire.
What is the future of relations between the two countries?
Some people have pointed out that Yellen's visit to China is the latest move by the two sides to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state after the phone call between the Chinese and US heads of state on April 2. Wang Yong believes that recently, there have been frequent high-level interactions between China and the United States, and multiple signals have been released behind them.
First, the U.S. message is that U.S.-China relations need to be stable.
Wang Yong explained that such "stability" means, on the one hand, that there should be no war between China and the United States. On the other hand, on the basis of a high degree of competition, the two countries should also cooperate in some common and mutually beneficial fields to maintain the basic stability of bilateral relations.
Second, he pointed out that Sino-US relations are very complex, and there is both competition and a stake, and the two countries will continue to maintain such a state.
According to an analysis by the New York Times, the potential of Sino-US trade has not yet been fully realized due to the US crackdown on China. Just before her visit to China, Yellen herself mentioned that the U.S. economy faces a "recession risk" and that mutually beneficial cooperation between the two sides can achieve mutual success.
Finally, for the future development of bilateral relations, Wang Yong summarized the "two key points".
First, the power gap between China and the United States has changed.
Wang Yong pointed out that if China's economy continues to develop, especially in the high-tech sector, the basis of the United States' power to suppress China will be greatly weakened, and the United States will turn more to China to seek a cooperative relationship, "and this momentum is continuing," Wang said.
Second, exchanges and interactions between China and the United States.
"Through this dialogue, the U.S. should understand China's views on some issues, especially on the unfair treatment of Chinese companies by the United States. Wang Yong said that there may be many problems in Sino-US relations today, and dialogue will help understand each other's situation and reduce miscalculations caused by suspicion.
He suggested that China and the United States should continue to increase exchanges and cooperation between leaders, officials at all levels, non-governmental organizations, academics, and the general public.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on April 3 that China-US economic relations are rooted in the common interests of the two countries and are essentially mutually beneficial and win-win in nature. We hope that the US will work with China in the same direction, properly handle differences, build consensus, deepen cooperation, and promote the steady development of China-US economic relations. (ENDS)