The volume of new energy vehicles continues, and the era of solid-state batteries is coming!
On March 28, the Xiaomi Auto SU7 was officially launched.
In 27 minutes, it broke 50,000 units, and Xiaomi easily achieved 110 "small goals" and successfully boarded the big ship of new energy vehicles.
The domestic new energy vehicle market will enter a period of suspension at the end of 2022. Is Xiaomi too late to enter the game at this time?
In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 9.587 million units and 9.595 million units, respectively, an increase of 35.8% and 37.9% year-on-year, respectively, and the market share will reach 31.6%, a year-on-year increase of 6 percentage points.
The expansion of the market itself is enough to offset the negative impact of the subsidy decline, and the suspension of subsidies has less impact on car companies.
From January to February 2024, the growth momentum of new energy vehicles continued, with production and sales reaching 1.252 million units and 1.207 million units, up 28.2% and 29.4% y/y, respectively. It is estimated that the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles will reach 13 million units in 2024, with a market share of more than 40%.
Xiaomi has more masters after it.
The SAIC Zhiji L6 will be officially unveiled on April 8.
The biggest attraction of the Zhiji L6 is that it will be equipped with the industry's first mass-produced ultra-fast charging solid-state battery, which means that domestic new energy vehicles are about to enter the era of solid-state batteries.
The industrialization of solid-state batteries has accelerated, further promoting the high prosperity of new energy vehicles.
So, the new energy vehicle market is stable and improving, what are the investment opportunities in the industrial chain?
Batteries are the heart of new energy vehicles, accounting for the highest proportion of the total vehicle cost, about 40%. Qingtao Energy is a leader in the industrialization of solid-state lithium batteries in China, and SAIC Zhiji L6 is equipped with its solid-state battery this time.
In addition, the NIO ET7 will be mass-produced and delivered in Q2 2024, and the battery supplier of the car is Weilan New Energy, another solid-state battery leader.
Both companies have the same supplier of cathode materials.
The cathode material is one of the core materials of the battery, taking ordinary batteries as an example, the cost of cathode materials accounts for as much as 51%, and the cost composition of solid-state batteries is roughly the same.
Dangsheng Technology is a leading enterprise in cathode materials, and maintains strategic cooperative relations with Qingtao Energy and Blue New Energy in solid-state lithium battery cathode materials.
So, what kind of company can make the two solid-state battery "unicorns" throw an olive branch, and when Sheng Technology is it?
Dangsheng Technology is the world's leading lithium battery cathode material, and the company's products are widely used in new energy vehicle power batteries, energy storage batteries and consumer lithium battery fields.
In 2022 and 2023, the company's cathode material revenue will account for more than 93%, of which multi-material revenue will account for about 90%. In 2023, the company's ternary materials will rank fourth in the global market share, overseas customers will account for 70%, and the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.924 billion, making it the most profitable ternary material company in China.
Dangsheng Technology has strong advantages in two aspects.
First, the product range is rich and the technology is advanced
From ultra-high nickel cobalt-free materials, solid-state lithium battery materials to sodium battery materials, the company's products comprehensively cover new material products and new battery routes.
Backed by the Mining Group, Dangsheng Technology has formed a full range of multi-material products, with a complete product layout in the field of multiple high nickel and ultra-high nickel, and is widely used in various power batteries such as 4680 large cylindrical batteries and prismatic batteries.
The company's lithium iron phosphate (manganese) and sodium electrocathode materials have entered the stage of large-scale production, and the sodium electrocathode has formed a 100-ton shipment.
Second, it is firmly in the global high-end supply chain, and the customer structure has obvious advantages
The world's top 10 lithium battery giants such as South Korea's LG New Energy, Japan's AESC, and BYD are all customers. The company is also the first supplier of head power battery customers such as Honeycomb Energy and EVE Lithium Energy. The company's products sell well at home and abroad, and overseas revenue accounts for about 30%.
At the same time, the company's lithium iron phosphate (manganese) materials continue to be sold in batches to domestic power and energy storage battery customers such as China Innovation Airlines, Kexin Juli, and Qingtao.
The company's solid-state lithium battery technology is leading in the industry, and the supply share of solid-state battery customers such as Huineng, Qingtao, Weilan New Energy, and Ganfeng Lithium Battery has been continuously increasing, and the products have been successfully used in solid-state models of global first-tier car companies such as SAIC and VinFast in Vietnam.
The die-cutting equipment in the smart device business has entered the supply chain of international first-line consumer electronics manufacturers, and the end customers include Samsung, Apple, Huawei, Xiaomi and other internationally renowned brands.
It is precisely because of this that the company can always be strong and cyclical in the cyclical pain of the lithium battery cathode material industry in 2023.
1. The performance is under pressure in the short term, and the profit is strong against the trend
From 2020 to 2022, the performance of Dangsheng Technology Company has increased steadily, with a compound annual growth rate of 88.33% in revenue and 80.36% in net profit.
In 2023, the price of lithium carbonate, the upstream raw material of lithium batteries, will fall sharply, reducing the shipment price of cathode material enterprises, and the profitability will decline sharply, and the cathode material industry will fall to a trough. Although Dangsheng Technology, which is mainly engaged in ternary cathode materials, was also affected, its performance was in line with the company's expectations.
Dangsheng Technology's revenue in 2023 will be 15.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.86%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15%.
Dangsheng Technology does not increase revenue but increases profits, and the profitability index is growing. In 2023, the company's gross profit margin will be 18.1%, a year-on-year increase of 0.66%, and the net profit margin will be 12.68%, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. Among them, the gross profit margin of ternary cathode materials business was 19.1%, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, making the largest contribution.
Under the circumstance that the average price of ternary cathode materials in China decreased by more than 25% year-on-year, the capacity utilization rate of Dangsheng Technology remained high, with the advantage of customer structure, and the company's gross profit margin rose against the trend.
2. Destocking is obvious
In 2023, cathode materials will face overcapacity, and various companies will even start a price war for destocking. The Matthew effect of the industry is highlighted, and the inventory of Dangsheng Technology will decrease from 2.865 billion in 2022 to 693 million in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 75.81%, with excellent inventory management.
Dangsheng Technology withstood the pressure of the cycle, fully demonstrating the leading strength of the industry.
The lithium battery cathode material industry is still in the growth period, and with the strong downstream demand and the acceleration of destocking, the price fluctuations of lithium battery raw materials are expected to return to a reasonable range in 2024, and even usher in a new round of upward movement. The high prosperity in the field of energy storage and new energy vehicles will continue to drive the continuous development of the cathode material industry.
There are two major points to see in the future development of Dangsheng Technology.
First, the forward-looking layout of solid-state batteries.
The era of solid-state batteries is coming, and solid-state batteries are expected to achieve large-scale installation in 2024, with an installed capacity of more than 5GWh.
The layout of solid-state lithium battery cathode materials of Dangsheng Technology is at the forefront of the industry. During the 2022-2025 period, the two leading solid-state battery companies, Qingtao Energy and Weilan New Energy, will purchase 30,000 tons and 25,000 tons of solid-state lithium battery materials from Dangsheng Technology respectively.
In 2023, the company's annual output will be 8.303 tons, and solid-state batteries will greatly increase the company's production and sales.
Second, cultivate new kinetic energy, and blossom at home and abroad
The global new energy vehicle and energy storage market is developing rapidly, and lithium iron phosphate (manganese) has huge development space in the field of energy storage and electric vehicles.
In 2023, the shipment of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials will reach 1.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 48.3%, and the market share will be 66%, an increase of nearly 7%.
In 2022, the company plans to invest in the construction of 300,000 tons/year of lithium iron phosphate (manganese) production capacity in Panzhihua, Sichuan, and the first phase of the 40,000-ton production capacity project in the first phase of the following year will enter the commissioning stage.
The company's overseas layout is progressing smoothly, and it is steadily advancing the European base project, which plans 200,000 tons of multi-material materials and 300,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate (manganese).
At present, the company's price-to-earnings ratio is only 11.47, which is far lower than the average of about 30 in the battery industry. At present, 345 institutions, including the social security fund, have rushed to raise.
As a leader in cathode materials, Dangsheng Technology has deepened its business layout at home and abroad, and has achieved positive results in technological upgrading and product innovation, strategic key customer development, international capacity construction, and corporate governance.
With the release of production capacity, Dangsheng Technology will move to a higher level, which is worth continuing to pay attention to!
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