Rectification Jiugua financial circle
International gold prices maintained their upward trend due to a variety of factors, including market bets on the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, as well as speculative purchases and central bank purchases. On April 5, local time, as of the close of the day, the price of gold futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up 1.60% to close at $2,345.40 per ounce, hitting a new record closing high. From this week's perspective, the international gold price rose 4.78%.
On April 5, local time, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, as of the close, the Dow rose 0.80%, the S&P 500 rose 1.11%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.24%. All three major stock indexes recorded losses this week, with the Dow falling 2.27%, its worst weekly performance since 2024.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest non-farm payrolls report on Friday, showing that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 303,000 in March, the largest increase since May last year, exceeding market expectations of 200,000, and the unemployment rate in March was 3.8%, in line with expectations.
The price of gold has gone crazy!
According to a report by Mi Basket Investment, the price of gold is now one day a day, which is outrageous and amazing, and the more it rises, the more it buys, the more it buys, the more it rises! Gold jewelry stores have all risen above the 700 yuan mark!
On March 27, the gold price of Chow Tai Fook's pure gold jewelry was 650 yuan/gram, and on April 3, it rose to 703 yuan/gram, an increase of 53 yuan/gram in just one week.
If you bought a pound of gold jewelry last week, you have already made a net profit of 5,300 yuan this week!
Moreover, not only Chow Tai Fook, but also other brands such as Lao Fengxiang, Liuliufu, and Chow Sang Sang have also broken through the 700 yuan/gram mark.
In terms of soaring prices and rush to buy, the current gold market is similar to the real estate market in 2016 and 2017.
Last spring, I bought it at 530, and this spring it directly rose above 700, with a premium rate of up to 30% a year.
Not only gold jewellery stores have exploded, but some financial institutions and gold banks, which are more focused on investment in gold beans and gold bars, have also become a hot mess, and many banks have begun to adjust the starting point of accumulation of accumulation funds.
Seeing the sharp rise in gold prices, a lady in Hangzhou directly sold more than 600,000 shares and exchanged them for gold bars.
There are also a group of outsiders, who are envious of the market while watching the market soar, and on the other hand, they are worried that they will buy at the highest point when they enter the market, so they repeat themselves over and over again, and the more they look at it, the more panicked they become.
After all, this kind of rally may not have been experienced by many people in their lives!
Will gold hit new highs?
Let's take a look at the international gold price, London gold and New York gold rose by more than $40 in a day, both of which refreshed record highs. Among them, spot gold in London rose 1.77% to $2,329.57 per ounce, and COMEX gold rose 1.76% to $2,349.1 per ounce.
Affected by this, gold stocks rose sharply, Jintian rose more than 4%, and Harmony Gold and Barrick Gold rose more than 2.5%.
On the news, institutional traders said that CME Group raised the margin for gold futures by 6.8% and silver futures by 11.8%.
In addition, spot silver also followed the rise, up more than 2%; COMEX silver rose more than 1%, and SHEE silver rose nearly 5%.
Johan Palmberg, senior quantitative analyst at the World Gold Council, said the gold OTC and futures markets have been active, with volume estimated to have increased by 40%. "The gold options market is exceptionally active compared to equities and bonds, which means there is a particular interest in gold at the moment. He said.
There are also many analysts who expect gold prices to hit new highs once the Fed starts cutting its benchmark interest rate, which stimulates demand from investors who are still on the sidelines, such as physical-backed gold ETFs.
It is worth mentioning that billionaire investor David Einhorn, head of the US hedge fund Greenlight Capital, is increasing his bets on gold, arguing that the Fed will not be able to control inflation and will be forced to maintain its restrictive monetary policy for longer than expected. It is understood that Greenlight Capital has been actively buying the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund - SPRDGoldShares (GLD).
Einhorn said: "We hold much more gold than just our position in GLD. We also hold physical gold bars, which is one of the most important investments. There are problems with overall monetary and fiscal policy in the United States, and if both policies are too accommodative, I think the deficit will eventually become a real problem. Investing in gold is a way for us to hedge against possible adverse situations in the future. ”
Large-scale gold raw material repurchase! "Big gold hoarders" have sold off!
How has the soaring gold price affected the market?
According to CCTV Finance and Economics, with the rise in gold prices, many gold jewelry wholesalers have gathered in Zhaoyuan, Shandong Province recently. In the terminal sales stores, the purchaser is particularly "cautious" about the purchase of gold jewelry, in terms of choosing the style, the buyer's choice from the traditional craft to the national tide culture as the element of fashion jewelry, and in some offline gold jewelry sales stores, exquisite craftsmanship, colorful enamel gold jewelry has also won the favor of consumers.
As the price of gold continues to rise, the repurchase of large quantities of gold raw materials offline has become the "highlight", and many "big gold hoarders" have chosen to sell at the high price of gold.
While offline gold raw material repurchase is hot, many gold stores have also opened an online repurchase model.
Lin Yu, the person in charge of an online gold repurchase business: We allow consumers to realize the rapid realization of gold by using subsidized coupons, free mailing, and preferential handling fees, among which the maximum amount of online gold recovered in a single day has reached more than 3,000 grams.
The gold price of jewelry broke the 700 yuan/gram mark
According to the Daily Economic News, the price of mainstream brand gold on the market exceeded 700 yuan/gram.
The reporter visited Chow Tai Fook, Chow Sang Sang, Chao Hongji and other brand counters selling "fixed price" gold and learned that although the current price has not been adjusted, it is expected that the brands will adjust the price of "fixed price" gold jewelry within a week.
"The email has been sent, and the label is about to be changed when it arrives. The Chaohongji teller made it clear that the price adjustment was imminent. "The price will be adjusted on April 12, and an internal notice has been issued. "Zhou Shengsheng has notified the specific price adjustment time. The staff of a Chow Tai Fook store confirmed to reporters that the price tag of "fixed price" gold jewelry will be changed on April 10.
As for the magnitude of the price adjustment, the brands are not consistent. Chaohongji staff told reporters that after the price adjustment, the "fixed price" goods were raised by about 400 yuan/gram-800 yuan/gram per piece. Chow Tai Fook's shopping guide said that the price increase level of each piece is different, with an increase of at least 10%, such as a wedding phoenix hairpin, the current price is 45,600 yuan, and the price increase is 50,800 yuan, and the current price of a gold bracelet is 18,800 yuan, and the price increase is 238,000 yuan. Zhou Shengsheng's April 12 "fixed price" commodity increase of 8%-10%, these days of small holiday "fixed price" activities are 88% off, two 85% off.
In fact, in recent years, "fixed-price" gold has attracted much attention, because of the special process of 5D, this type of gold is often not counted in grams. "Of course, the most cost-effective is gold by grams, and the price of 'fixed price' converted by gram weight is relatively high. A staff member of a gold brand in Hankyu told reporters.
Most of the "fixed price" gold jewelry prices in many stores are around 1,000 yuan. Generally, a pendant of a little more than 1 gram costs about 1,300 yuan, while the price of a little more than 2 grams is about 2,300 yuan, and so on. The shopping guide said that because most of the "fixed price" uses hard gold technology, the technical difficulty is relatively high, so the cost of production has been spread into the goods, and the unit price per gram is indeed higher, but in addition to gold bars, almost all gold jewelry has to be costed.
As the price of gold continues to rise, gold assets are also favored, and the price has also been rising. On the one hand, the net value of gold ETFs tracking domestic gold spot trends has hit a record high, and on the other hand, gold stocks have also performed well recently.
People in the banking industry said that the current gold price is indeed high, should not be too much to chase up, for family asset allocation, gold prices can be considered when the pullback, at the same time, gold investment is not to pursue high yields as the goal, we should maintain long-term investment thinking.
International predators are betting that gold can still rise in the future?
In the context of the continuous rise in international gold prices, central banks have frantically increased gold strategic reserves and become absolute bulls in the international market.
According to the data, as of the end of March 2024, the gold reserves of the top ten countries in the world (the United States, Germany, Italy, France, Russia, China, Switzerland, Japan, India, and the Netherlands) were 24,260.63 tons, an increase of 15.58 tons from February, an increase for 17 consecutive months, and the main countries with increased holdings were China and India.
In addition to the world's major central banks increasing their allocation of gold reserves, there are also international predators who are gambling.
Billionaire investor David Einhorn, head of US hedge fund Greenlight, is increasing his bets on gold, arguing that the Federal Reserve will not be able to control inflation and will be forced to maintain its restrictive monetary policy for longer than expected.
Einhorn said: "We hold much more gold than just our position in GLD. We also hold physical gold bars, which is one of the most important investments. There are problems with overall monetary and fiscal policy in the United States, and if both policies are too accommodative, I think the deficit will eventually become a real problem. Investing in gold is a way for us to hedge against possible adverse situations in the future. ”
Historically, the emergence of each round of gold bull market is inseparable from the strengthening of gold currency, reflecting the strength of all parties in the international monetary system. Since 2018, the international geopolitical situation has become increasingly complex, with the Sino-US game, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Palestinian-Israeli issue continuing to emerge, and the world has entered a process of "de-dollarization", which is manifested in the decline of US dollar foreign exchange reserves and the rise of gold reserves. Looking ahead, gold prices remain in an upward channel.
1. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates
It is only a matter of time before the Fed cuts interest rates, and in the short term, the downward trend of U.S. Treasury interest rates is strong, which will provide upward support to gold prices. The most critical factors affecting the trend of U.S. Treasury interest rates in 2024 are the U.S. economy, inflation issues, and the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
2. Global election year geopolitical disturbances catalyze central bank gold purchases
2024 could be the biggest election year ever. According to incomplete statistics, elections will be held in more than 70 countries and regions around the world in 2024, covering nearly half of the world's population and nearly 50% of the world's total economy, among which elections in the United States, Russia, Ukraine, India and other places are particularly eye-catching. The change of regime and policy adjustment in these countries will bring great uncertainty and geopolitical friction may increase. As a result, the increase in safe-haven demand in election years has also continued to catalyze central bank purchases.
3. The economic trend is good for gold
Inflation: Gold is often seen as a store of value in a high-inflation environment, so rising levels of inflation tend to push gold prices higher.
Economic growth: When global economic growth slows or uncertainty increases, investors may seek gold as a safe asset, pushing gold prices higher.
Monetary policy: The current world context is the over-issuance of currency, the de-dollarization of the great power strife (the beginning of the US confiscation of Russian overseas assets), the unstable old order, the uncertainty of the new pattern, and the uncertainty driving the demand for gold.