Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, made headlines around the world on Monday, and the bombing of the Iranian consulate amounted to a violation of Iran's sovereignty, which led to the death of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, who was a former military adviser to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria. In addition, the attack resulted in the death of his deputy commander and three military advisers.
This means that Israel's bombing campaign was targeted and aimed at high-ranking military commanders. Iran responded immediately: it would punish and retaliate for Israel's actions.
So why did Israel suddenly launch a bombing campaign against the Iranian consulate?
First, although the biggest obstacle to Israel's current military operations in the Gaza Strip comes from Hamas, Israel's peripheral security is all affected by Iran, especially in Lebanon and Syria.
The question is how Iran will retaliate? Once Iran attacks Israel itself, the United States will inevitably be involved, and although Iran has been very vocal in recent years, it still will not easily engage the United States in direct war, so Israel is relying on the United States behind it to do this; second, if Iran really retaliates directly against Israel, that is what Israel wants, and then the United States will have to be forced to get involved in this regional war.
Second, this shows that Israel still regards the threat of the Arab world as the biggest threat, and now Israel is facing Hamas, but the threat from the Syrian direction is regarded by Israel as a long-term threat, after all, Israel has robbed many of Syria's chassis and occupies the Golan Heights, and Israel naturally does not want Iranian forces to penetrate here.
As a country in the region that strongly supports Syria, Iran's military action against important commanders will inevitably affect Iran's influence in Syria, and the last time the United States hunted Soleimani was also to prevent the rise of Iranian power in the Middle East, Israel is the same this time, so in theory, it is also in the interests of the United States to do so.
Third, Israel is escalating the situation, because in the past, both the United States and Israel used the same terms as "Iranian-related forces" or "Iranian-backed forces" when the United States and Israel attacked Iran. Now that Israel is directly bombing the Iranian consulate, it has reached the point of directly using force against Iran. Israel is not stupid, and such a blow is intended to directly escalate the situation.
The purpose of escalating the situation is certainly what Israel wants, otherwise Israel would not do so. Because Iran and Iranian-backed forces are making slow but effective progress, Israel's actions this time are aimed at disrupting Iran's plans and rhythms. And Israel's response did not admit that it was an Iranian consulate, with IDF spokesman Daniel saying: "According to our intelligence, this is not a consulate and it is not an embassy." I repeat, this is not a consulate, and it is not an embassy. It was a military building of the Quds Army, disguised as a civilian building in Damascus. ”
Will Iran bomb Israel directly?
How will Iran retaliate? It has become a hot topic of global concern, and it is not easy to answer this question. Because before any country launches a military retaliation, it must carefully consider the price to pay only for the sake of venting emotions, that is to say, whether Iran will directly attack Israel itself will be based on reason rather than emotion, and the military aircraft try to believe that the possibility of Iran attacking Israel mainland is zero.
Because if Iran escalates the confrontation situation at this time, it will involve the United States in the first place, and second, it will completely provoke Israel, which has no shortage of weapons of mass destruction, and once Israel is attacked on its own territory, Israel has every reason to carry out a large-scale bombing of Iran's Tehran regardless of the attitude of the West, which is not a good thing for Iran.
But Iran's response should not be underestimated, and Iran is likely to provide more weapons in the Lebanese direction, and more in the Yemeni region, in short, Iran will retaliate, but will not directly attack Israel itself. However, the degree of reaction depends on a variety of factors, including the location and nature of the reaction.
More importantly, if Iran bombs Israel itself, it will not only mean Israel's retaliation, but also mean that a larger-scale Middle East war may break out. Syria is probably possible, but the strength of the two is not strong at present, and because of the United States, Iraq and Egypt are unlikely to participate, so the scale of this Middle East war is more concentrated in Lebanon and Syria, and the United States will not hesitate to bomb Iran whenever Iran takes a step beyond the minefield.
Therefore, Israel is not afraid, because of the embarrassment of the geopolitical struggle, Iran cannot expand the situation, because it has no strategic advantage for itself.