The national team, the next batch of houses has been collected!

Archimedes has an old saying: Give me a fulcrum, and I can pry the whole earth.

For many cities today, this sentence can be changed to:

Give me a policy, I can leverage the entire property market!

In the price reduction, the abolition of purchase restrictions, the issuance of housing subsidies, and the encouragement of farmers to buy houses in the city...... After failing to save the property market, he finally broke a new way-

The national team went directly to the field and bought second-hand houses in batches!

Two days ago, two state-owned enterprises in Xuancheng City, Anhui Province made a fancy job.

Xuancheng Urban Construction Group and Xuancheng State Holding Group jointly issued an announcement that residents can use second-hand houses in the designated area of the main urban area of Xuancheng City to exchange for new houses in multiple communities developed and built by the two companies.

To put it bluntly, it is the "old for new" second-hand housing.

In fact, since last year, there have been a large number of cities in the country that have played the name of "trade-in" for second-hand housing.

For example, Qingdao, Dongying, Weihai, Linyi, Rizhao, Zibo, and Jining in Shandong;

Nanjing, Suzhou, Nantong and Yangzhou in Jiangsu;

Ningbo, Haining, Zhejiang......

But Xuancheng's "trade-in" this time is different, whether it is the way of exchange, or the screening conditions for exchanging houses, it is not done in other cities.

First of all, the way of exchange is direct enough and sincere enough.

The company will directly buy the second-hand house in the hands of the buyer, and the purchase price will be "88% off" according to the average valuation of the three appraisal companies.

The first batch will give you the down payment for the new house, and the rest of the old payment will be paid to the buyer after the new home loan is successfully disbursed.

What's more, the nine new housing projects participating in the exchange are also in the specified area, that is, the area enclosed by Shuiyangjiang Avenue.

Secondly, the restrictions on participating in the "trade-in" second-hand housing are broad enough.

As long as it is a residential house within a limited range, with a construction area of less than 144 square meters, the loan is paid off, there is an independent real estate certificate, and it is not an illegal and dangerous house, you can participate in the exchange.

In fact, since the emergence of the "trade-in" policy for second-hand housing, there are no more than two models followed.

One is the help-sale model, that is, the buyer, the developer, and the intermediary sign a tripartite agreement, the buyer pays a deposit to lock in the new house, and the intermediary helps the buyer sell the house first.

The house was sold within the specified period, and everyone was happy. The house was not sold and the deposit was returned.

This "old for new" model can only be said to be more form than result, and the final test is the success of the second-hand housing market.

The second is a direct acquisition model like Xuancheng.

Jinan's Greenland Lanting Mansion has been done once before, but the replacement conditions given are:

The age of the old house is controlled within 10 years, and the total price of the old house cannot exceed 60% of the total price of the new house.

In contrast, Xuancheng has no limit on the age of the building, and the price can be given at 88% off, but there is more conscience.

The original purpose of the "trade-in" was actually very simple, which was to destock.

Judging from the cities that are currently implementing the "old for new" policy, there is one count, and the generalized digestion cycle of housing is either ridiculously long or growing rapidly.

For example, in Qingdao and Nantong, the generalized inventory digestion cycle of residential buildings in 2022 will be 8-9 years.

This is still the situation of first- and second-tier cities, and the inventory of third- and fourth-tier cities is not visible at all.

According to CRIC statistics, the digestion cycle of residential inventory in third- and fourth-tier cities can reach 8 years on average.

Moreover, there is another extremely obvious feature in third- and fourth-tier cities, that is, a large amount of inventory is actually backlogged in the hands of state-owned enterprises.

Since the centralized land supply in 2021, the main force of the land auction market has become the state-owned urban investment companies in various places.

According to CRIC statistics, in the past three years, the number of local state-owned enterprises and urban investment companies participating in land acquisition has accounted for more than 6 percent!

Source: CRIC

Among them, the first- and second-tier core cities are a little better, and there will be central enterprises and strong private enterprises to support the field.

However, for third- and fourth-tier cities, local state-owned assets and urban investment are already the main force in the land market and the commercial housing market.

Take Anhui Xuancheng, the protagonist of this incident, as an example.

There are a total of 21 new properties for sale in the city, and I probably checked them, and 8 of them have state-owned enterprise backgrounds.

Among them, except for the central enterprise such as Zhonghai Construction standing behind Xuancheng Peach Blossom Garden, the other 7 real estate projects are all from local state-owned enterprises in Xuancheng.

Xuancheng Urban Construction Group and Xuancheng State Holding Group, which initiated the "old for new" activity, are among the leaders, and the five projects in the urban area are theirs.

And these 5 projects are also in the list of "trade-in" for new houses.

A relevant person in charge of Xuancheng Urban Construction Group also bluntly said that their group undertook a large number of resettlement housing and commercial housing development tasks in the early stage, but the market situation has been relatively sluggish since 2021.

It can be seen that the third- and fourth-tier state-owned assets are really under great pressure at the moment.

So many cities are counting on the "trade-in" to achieve decentralization, so what is the actual effect?

Judging from the cities that are already implementing the "old for the new", the cities that have implemented the gang sales model have basically no effect.

For example, Nanjing implemented the "new purchase" last year, and there were still many real estate companies that participated at the beginning, but either the real estate projects taken out by the real estate companies were too partial and too poor, or the houses of buyers were really difficult to sell, and the market enthusiasm was not high.

Where direct acquisitions are adopted, the effect in the short term is still obvious.

For example, as mentioned at the beginning, Jinan Greenland Lanting Mansion, which has relatively harsh replacement conditions, has sold more than 30 sets in the two months after the implementation of "trade-in" last year.

But it's just a gust of wind, and now this plate is still working hard to promote......

It can be found that compared with the effort required to implement the "old for the new", the return brought by this policy is actually not high.

Then why do the two state-owned enterprises in Xuancheng continue to follow up? Two key points:

The first is to reduce debt, and the other is to explore a long-term real estate operation model.

For the whole year of last year, the real estate investment in Xuancheng City was 13.82 billion yuan, down 32.3% year-on-year, the sales area of commercial housing was 1.582 million square meters, down 33.8% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial housing decreased by 36% year-on-year.

The real estate market in Xuancheng as a whole has shrunk by a third.

However, the government debt ratio of Xuancheng City is in a relatively high position, and it is still rising year by year.

In this case, it is unrealistic to expect to make money by selling land and houses, so how to revitalize the entire real estate market and better resolve debts?

"Trade-in" is a good idea.

There are 9 new housing projects that can be used for exchange in Xuancheng, of which 5 are in the core area of the city center, and 3 are in the Caijin Lake section of Xuancheng's new district.

I took a closer look at the new homes and found that there were some things in common.

First of all, these new projects are all properties with higher prices in the local area.

The average listing price of second-hand houses in Xuancheng in March this year was 7,236 yuan/㎡, and if it was acquired according to the "88% discount", it would be 6,367 yuan/㎡.

The average price of these new projects is basically around 7,500 yuan/㎡, and the average price of many real estate projects even exceeds 8,000 yuan/㎡.

Roughly calculated, the local purchase of one square meter can earn 1,133 yuan/㎡.

Secondly, the area of these new housing projects is very large.

I took a look at it, and the area of these properties is basically more than 110 square meters, and there are almost no two-bedroom apartments.

However, there are few second-hand houses in the center of third- and fourth-tier cities with such a large area.

According to the "trade-in" plan announced by two state-owned enterprises in Xuancheng City, the second-hand house is "88% off" according to the appraisal price, and the new house is sold at the original price.

That is to say, people who change houses either use two or more sets for one set, or they need to make up the difference.

Isn't that the money flowing?

What about the repossessed second-hand house?

It is indeed difficult for private enterprises to acquire so many second-hand houses, but state-owned enterprises are different.

According to the relevant person in charge of Xuancheng Urban Construction Group, the second-hand houses acquired will be used as affordable housing or talent housing, and can also be market-oriented as long-term rental housing.

In the past, the construction of affordable housing was basically concentrated in some remote areas, which is acceptable for large cities with high urbanization rates, but the suburbs of many third- and fourth-tier cities are really blown away, and even low-income groups do not look down on these houses.

Now, there are many second-hand houses in the city center, which greatly increases the attractiveness for many migrant workers.

This is also in line with the new urbanization concept proposed by the two sessions this year, which can retain more migrant workers to settle down.

At the moment of "housing by people, land by housing, and money by housing", this means the right to development for third- and fourth-tier cities.

In addition, the affordable housing, talent housing and long-term rental housing in the city center are also more conducive to the needs of the long-term development of the city.

The renovation of stock housing is the mainstream of real estate at present, which also means that more support can be received from above.

In this process, second-hand houses, which were originally extremely difficult to circulate in third- and fourth-tier cities, have been integrated into liquid assets instead of being cumbersome.

It can be said that Xuancheng finally understood the "old for new" this time.

So can this model be widely promoted?

Bold third- and fourth-tier cities can learn, but core first- and second-tier cities are difficult to copy.

The reason is also very simple, housing prices are different, how many real estate companies in core cities can afford this?

What's more, the local government recycles second-hand housing at a discounted price, which is extremely damaging to regional housing prices.

Whether it is to buy a second-hand house at a 6% discount or a second-hand house at an 88% discount, this is equivalent to the government pricing the second-hand house, which is similar to the reference price of the second-hand house.

However, for friends in third- and fourth-tier cities, if you do not plan to replace with higher-level cities, the direct acquisition of the "old for the new" is indeed an excellent opportunity for you to improve your housing conditions.

Even if you exchange multiple sets for one set, even if you have to make up the difference, it is much better than holding a bunch of three or four lines of old and broken ones.