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Source: Hawkeye Sees the World 2023 Author: Hawkeye Defence
According to "Chinanews.com", on March 21, local time, after more than 40 days, Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, was once again hit by a "long-range precision strike" by the Russian army.
"RBC Ukraine" quoted the Kyiv Military Administration as saying that the air raid siren lasted for nearly 3 hours, and Kyiv Mayor Klychko claimed on social media that the debris of the downed missile fell in the Svyatoshin district, Podolsk district and Shevchenkovsky district of Kyiv City, and some buildings and vehicles including churches, businesses, kindergartens, and high-rise residences were damaged, and at least 13 Ukrainian civilians have died in this round of air strikes, including 1 child.
The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshuk, declared on the "X" that the Russian army used 11 Tu-95MS "Bear" strategic bombers in this round of air strikes, launched more than 29 KH-101 or KH-555 air-launched cruise missiles, and also launched two "Dagger" air-launched ballistic missiles or "Iskander-M" or KN-23 ballistic missiles, "The missiles came from the north, and the main direction of attack was Kyiv", " As a result of the success of the operation of the air defense forces, all enemy missiles in the Kyiv region were shot down. ”
The day before, that is, on March 20, local time, Kharkiv was also attacked by Russian missiles, according to the "Xinhua News Agency" report, in the missile attack that day, the Russian missile hit an industrial area in Kharkiv, causing at least 5 deaths, 8 injuries, and at least 10 people were buried under the rubble, rescue work is being carried out intensively.
As of now, we do not know the details of the current round of missile attacks by the Russian army, but according to the pictures and videos, the Russian missile attacks on Kyiv hit a large number of civilian facilities and caused casualties among innocent civilians.
And just a day before the Russian missile attack on Kyiv, a number of Russian state media, including the "Russian Satellite News Agency", reported the news that "Russian President: Russia can respond to the attack on civilian facilities, but Russia has its own plan", Russian President Putin declared: "We can also respond in the same way, also attack civilian infrastructure, and attack all such facilities attacked by the enemy, but we have our own views and plans for this." "We don't know for the time being whether the Russian army's missile attack on Kyiv is related to President Putin's statement.
The Russian bomber that attacked Kyiv on the 21st took off from the Engels airbase in Saratov Oblast, Russia, which was attacked by Ukrainian drones the day before, on March 20, and the Ukrainian General Intelligence Service has declared responsibility for the attack, "the effect of the attack is being clarified."
Despite Russian officials, including the governor of the Saratov region, Roman Busatin, claiming that Russian air defenses shot down all the incoming drones without any casualties or damage to infrastructure, local populations claimed to have heard at least four explosions. Relevant satellite pictures have appeared on the Internet, but for the time being, we have not seen the relevant results of the Ukrainian army's attack, perhaps hitting an important target, or perhaps the Ukrainian drone was all shot down.
Engels airbase has been repeatedly attacked by Ukrainian drones, and public reports show that the base is equipped with Tu-121M "Corsair" strategic bombers belonging to the 160th Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment of the Russian Army and Tu-95MS "Xiong" belonging to the 184th Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment Satellite photos of strategic bombers, which are also home to the 22nd Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Division of the Russian army, show that there were 11 Russian military aircraft at Engels Air Base at that time, including 9 strategic bombers: 6 Tu-95MS "Bear" (1 of which has been decommissioned) and 3 Tu-160M "Corsair".
With the development of the Ukrainian drone industry, a large number of drones have been supplied to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and we can see that the Ukrainian army is launching a strategic strike against Russia to undermine Russia's war capabilities. According to the Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine Alexander Kameshin, at present, Ukraine can produce 150,000 drones per month, and this year a total of 2 million drones will be produced.
Most of these drones are multi-rotor drones that can be assembled at home, but there are also thousands of suicide drones with a range of hundreds or even thousands of kilometers, and these suicide drones have become the main force of the Ukrainian army's strategic strike against Russia. There is information that the Ukrainian army is now firing dozens of suicide drones into Russian territory every night, and from public reports, this news is quite credible.
Ukrainian-made drones have shown themselves well in real combat and have already gained market recognition. According to a report by Yahoo News, Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair said that the Canadian government wants to buy Ukrainian-made drones, and Canada and its allies should learn from Ukraine's experience in using drones in the two-year war, and the purchase of Ukrainian drones can be a good investment in the Ukrainian drone industry.
And in addition to drones, the Ukrainian army also has more powerful and penetrating long-range missiles, which include not only the "Storm Shadow", "Scarp-EG" and ATACMS provided by Western supporters, but also Ukraine's self-developed missiles, which can attack targets in Russia without restrictions: the Ukrainian government has promised not to attack targets in Russia with Western weapons, of course, excluding occupied territories such as Crimea.
According to the Washington Post, Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industries Alexander Kamysin said that the Ukrainian army has deployed domestic missiles with a range of more than 640 kilometers, although Alexander Kameshin did not disclose more information, but analysts believe that this missile with a range of more than 640 kilometers is likely to be the "Thunder-2" developed by Ukraine for a long time and the same source as Russia's "Iskander-M" BALLISTIC MISSILES, AND UNCONFIRMED INFORMATION INDICATES THAT THE KORSHUN ("KITE") CRUISE MISSILE WITH A RANGE OF 1,000 KILOMETERS HAS BEEN DEVELOPED.
What is certain is that as far as the current situation is concerned, the Ukrainian army's strategic strikes against Russia will continue and further intensify, although it is still inferior to the Russian army, but at least in terms of "long-range precision strikes" has weakened the asymmetric advantage of the Russian army: the Russian army still has the ability to carry out precision strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine, and Ukraine is no longer only beaten and does not fight back.
It is worth noting that although Ukraine has fewer air defense systems, it is also not large, and its air defense density is relatively high, while Russia has a large number of air defense systems, but they are mainly used to protect the front line, Crimea, Moscow and other places, and even St. Petersburg is difficult to provide adequate air defense protection, which has created many loopholes for the Ukrainian army's long-range strikes, and the Ukrainian army obviously did not release these opportunities.
Bloomberg's report shows that the Ukrainian army's drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have opened a new phase of the war, with Bloomberg estimating that 11% of Russia's refining capacity has been paralyzed, a dismissal that affects the Kremlin's ability to fight the war, and that the refinery supplies not only fuel for the Russian armed forces, but also petrodollars for the Russian government, "which has become a new direction for Ukraine's defense, both in terms of symbolism and strategic objectives."
Tobiang Tonqvist, CEO of Gunvor, the world's top oil trader, has a similar view, arguing that drone strikes by Ukrainian forces have severely affected Russia's refining capacity, with Russia estimated to have lost about 600,000 barrels per day of refining capacity, which has led to a halt to the export of gasoline and futures prices for refined products such as Russian gasoline and diesel that have risen for several days.
The head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Vasily Malyuk, declared that "our attacks are not limited to the front line, but also carry out tasks at sea and behind enemy lines, and we will not stop". In addition to drones, Ukrainian forces are also using suicide drones to attack the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet and may expand the range of the attack.
In a recent intelligence briefing, the British Ministry of Defense released a satellite photo of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, in the satellite photo, a Russian submarine is berthed at the pier in Novorossiysk, and a submarine is drawn on the ground of the pier, it is obvious that the Russian army is trying to use this method to deceive the Ukrainian army's air attack.
This is also a tradition of the Russian army, which places great emphasis on using camouflage to deceive to protect important targets and hide true intentions, and one of the main factors that the Russian army suffered in the early stages of this war was the ineffective use of deception and camouflage tactics known as "masks". And now, in addition to the naval base, the Russian army is also using this camouflage in large quantities in places such as air bases, drawing a large number of shadows of aircraft silhouettes, and at the same time drawing the side profiles of ships on the docks, trying to mislead the Ukrainian army's suicide drones.
Notably, the Krymskyi Veter monitoring team, citing satellite data, claimed that Russian ships heading to Novorossiysk were drastically changing course and clinging to the Turkish coast, which Krimskyvet believed were doing so to avoid attacks by Ukrainian suicide drones.
We can't confirm the speculation, but it should be noted that Novorossiysk is not only the main base of the Black Sea Fleet on the eastern shore of the Black Sea, but also one of the most important oil ports in Russia.
And the Black Sea Fleet, which was beaten to the point that it had almost nowhere to hide, was soon able to catch its breath. Multiple sources, including the "Ukrainian front", indicate that the military port of Russian troops in the occupied Georgian territory of Abkhazia Ochamchire is nearing completion, at which point the Black Sea Fleet can hide there to further evade the attacks of Ukrainian forces.
In response, the Georgian Foreign Ministry strongly objected, claiming that Russia's move was a "flagrant violation of Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity", fearing that Moscow would drag Georgia into the war, and once the Russian ships anchored in the military port of Ochamchire, it would become a legitimate target for Ukrainian forces.
The military port in Ochamchire is only 30 kilometers from the territory controlled by the Georgian government, and the so-called "Republic of Abkhazia" is not only under the de facto control of Russia, but also constantly declares that it wants a "referendum" to annex to Russia, and the Georgian government, although pro-Russian, cannot stand it.
After the Russo-Georgian war in 2008, most Georgians were anti-Russian, but the Georgian government was pro-Russian. The Russian government has protected and actually controlled the two so-called "republics" of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and it is also a Kremlin tradition to annex the lands of neighboring countries and interfere in the internal affairs of neighboring countries under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians. ”