Earn 1% more, is it safe to deposit money in small banks?

Good evening, I'm a satellite of Jian Qi's editorial department~

Last week, the central mother announced a mortgage interest rate cut, which is a challenge for the bank's already small net interest margin.

Sure enough, many banks have started a new round of deposit interest rate cuts. The deposit interest rate has to fall again.

Some friends asked: Can I buy deposits from small banks?

First, even if the interest rate of small banks falls, it is still higher than that of large banks, and even 1%+ more;

Second, a single bank deposit of less than 500,000 yuan is protected by deposit insurance, which is also quite safe.

Today, I would like to talk to you about this topic carefully, calculate the risks and benefits clearly, and then make a decision.

Now there is such a game:

Someone holds a gun to your temple and bets you that the gun has a magazine of 1 million rounds, one of which is a real bullet.

For each pull of the trigger, you can get 100 million. Will you get involved?

In 1998, Warren Buffett came up with this interesting thought experiment while giving a lecture at the University of Florida.

His answer is also very decisive: whether I pull the trigger to give 100 million or 10 billion, I will not play.

Because if he wins, he doesn't need the 100 million, he still eats McDonald's and drinks Coke, and once he loses, everyone knows what the result will be.

"But in finance, people often do this thing without going through their brains. 」

The background of Buffett's remarks coincided with the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management (LTMC) and he was approached for help.

This fund company is managed by a group of mathematical geniuses -

Including Nobel laureates in economics and top figures in finance and academia, the team has more than 300 years of investment experience.

They extrapolate probabilities based on historical data, and if the probability of winning is high, they increase their leverage and earn a little more.

From 1994 to 1998, the annualized rate of return of long-term capital companies was 41%.

Not surprisingly, accidents always happen.

Description: Long-term Capital Management (blue line) net value trend 1994-1998

In 1998, Russian government bonds defaulted, a small probability event that caused long-term capital management companies that bet on bonds of emerging countries to suffer heavy losses.

The fund's assets fell by 90% in 150 days, and the Fed finally stepped in to quell the bond sell-off.

Warren Buffett left a piece of advice for this: "Never risk losing what you have and is important to pursue what you don't have and don't need." 」

Source: Warren Buffett's 1998 speech at the University of Florida

In my opinion, this sentence applies to any investment analysis: first determine whether there are bullets in the pistol, and then calculate the consequences of the bullets.

Returning to the topic of deposits, the reason why everyone hesitates is because small banks do have risk events.

In the past 22 years, seven village and town banks in Henan and Anhui have difficulty withdrawing money, and a large number of depositors are panicking.

The police opened a case for investigation and found that the major shareholder had absorbed funds in the name of "deposits" and misappropriated the funds raised, which was illegal fundraising.

That is, the money is not a bank deposit at all and is not covered by deposit insurance.

However, it is obviously too difficult for ordinary people to judge whether the deposit is real and whether it has been misappropriated.

Fortunately, after several months of recovery of stolen money, the deposit of less than 500,000 yuan was finally cashed.

Let's talk about the consequences of bullets.

Some friends probably think, whether it is a deposit insurance payment or a police recovery, wouldn't it be good to get the money back?

In addition to the economic account, we also need to consider the psychological account.

One is that the time to get back the funds is unknown.

Referring to the processing process of P2P and trust "thunderstorm", the fast may be able to get back the principal in a few months, and the slow one may not be able to wait for a few years, disrupting the next funding arrangement.

Second, during the waiting period for repayment, the emotional collapse may have a negative impact on work and life.

Of course, this is an extreme case, and we don't have to worry too much about the safety of the bank.

At the end of last year, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) released a "China Financial Stability Report (2023)", ranking 3,992 banks according to the security level of green, yellow and red, from high to low.

*Rated from lowest to highest on a scale of 11 (1-10 and D), 1 is the safest, 10 is the most dangerous, and D is out of business.

The overall is quite stable, where-

Large banks are rated well, all within the safety line (green zone + yellow zone);

Foreign (95% green), private and direct banks* (76% green) are also rated as good and no high-risk banks;

*Direct banking: "Internet banking" without offline outlets, such as online merchants and WeBank

67% of city commercial banks are in the green zone, and 11.5% are high-risk banks;

Rural cooperative institutions (rural commercial banks, rural cooperative banks, rural credit cooperatives) and village and township banks are the "high-risk" areas.

191 of the 2,140 rural cooperative institutions are at high risk, and 132 of the 1,643 village and township banks are at high risk.

At present, the supervision is also actively clearing and dismantling mines. In the past year, small and medium-sized banks have set off a wave of mergers to resist potential risks with a larger volume.

After talking about the possibility and consequences of the risk, the pistol question at the beginning can be concretely as:

Suppose you have a deposit of 500,000 yuan, are you willing to bear the psychological burden caused by a small probability of thunderstorms, in exchange for an extra 5,000 yuan (1%) a year.

Because everyone's risk appetite and understanding of local banks are different, everyone will have different judgments.

Here is my opinion: the most important thing in deposit is safety and peace of mind.

To paraphrase Warren Buffett's words, the principal of 500,000 yuan is something that I "own and are important", and whether the interest can be more than 5,000 yuan is "something that is not needed".

So, judging by the current situation, I tend to put my money in the big banks.

As a tip, the country updates a list of systemically important banks every year, and the higher the group, the higher the importance.

When we deposit and invest, we can also refer to this list of "high-quality" banks and choose the best ones.

Source: Central Bank, updated September 2023

In addition, think about it another way, if you save more than 5,000 yuan a year, you don't have to rely on deposits to earn, you can use the idea of "open source + throttling" -

Open source:

1) Participate in the event

Large banks (such as CCB and ICBC) will hold welfare activities (such as asset increases) from time to time to give away points, which can also be used as money.

For banks that have been active, you may wish to carefully study and study the rules~

2) Asset allocation

Swap some of your savings for bonds and stocks.

For example, buy some bond funds

to trade low volatility for more gains, or allocate a small portion of your money to the stock market

and enjoy the value of the company's growth.

Throttling:

Saving 5,000 yuan a year is equivalent to saving 14 yuan per day and 416 yuan per month.

We can find daily "latte factors", such as milk tea and coffee, and cut off these addictive and unnecessary expenses, and the body can be healthier~

Or buy one less piece of clothing and use a few more second-hand items every month, and what you save is what you earn.

Over the weekend, Warren Buffett released his latest shareholder letter, emphasizing Berkshire's "extreme fiscal conservatism":

Never risk losing your capital to invest permanently;

In most cases, our caution may be considered unnecessary, as is buying insurance for a fire-rated fortress building. However, we firmly believe that such caution is key to protecting the interests of our shareholders;

We never want to cause permanent financial loss to anyone who trusts us... Berkshire Hathaway was created to stay in business.

Although it is unlikely that ordinary people will accumulate wealth of such a size, the idea of steady and far-reaching development is in the same vein. If you go slower, you can go further.

Well, that's all for the topic of bank deposits, good night

Resources:

The People's Bank of China's People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration of the People's Bank of China released the list of systemically important banks in the mainland; the central bank's China Financial Stability Report (2023); Station B "Warren Buffett's 1998 University of Florida Speech", Wall Street News "Buffett's 2024 Letter to Shareholders"

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255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);-- weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark], body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]), body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, .1); --weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body: not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .. 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

Earn 1% more, is it safe to deposit money in small banks?

Earn 1% more, is it safe to deposit money in small banks?

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