See you at the opening! The peripheral market has risen sharply, and the first A-share debut in the Year of the Dragon is coming

On February 19, A-shares will usher in the first trading day of the Year of the Dragon, and the debut of A-shares in the Year of the Dragon is highly anticipated against the backdrop of the three consecutive rises of the Shanghai Index before the holiday. It is worth mentioning that during the Spring Festival holiday, the peripheral market generally rose sharply, and Hong Kong stocks have also achieved three consecutive yangs since the opening of the market on February 14, and the market has a strong atmosphere of longing. According to the statistics of a reporter from Beijing Business Daily, in the decade from 2014 to 2023, A-shares have had a "good start" for six years after the Spring Festival, accounting for 60%. Industry experts said that it is expected that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will be able to continue the upward trend in the future, further carry out an upward offensive, and the post-holiday repair market is expected to continue.

The external market performed well

In the week of February 12-16, the external market performed better, which also made the performance of the first trading day of the Year of the Dragon of A-shares arouse investors' expectations.

Specifically, during the Spring Festival, most of the world's major stock indexes rose, such as the Nikkei 225 index, which rose by 4.41% in the past week, and reached 38487.24 points in the latest period. The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is the most eye-catching, since the opening of the market on February 14, has achieved three consecutive yang, of which the Hang Seng Index in February 14-16 these three trading days, the cumulative increase of 3.77%, the latest report of 16339.96 points, heavy on 16000 points.

In addition, the Hang Seng Technology Index also rose sharply, rising 0.79% and 3.71% on February 15 and 16, respectively, to close at 3,342.73 points as of February 16.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that the Hang Seng Index rose for three consecutive days at the beginning of the Year of the Dragon, mainly because it was driven by many favorable policies and the A-share market rose before the holiday, which led to the rebound of sentiment in the entire market. "Before the holiday, the market ushered in a series of favorable policies, the market was not extremely Tailai, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks bottomed out and rebounded, and rose together. The regulator punished several violations of laws and regulations during the Spring Festival, demonstrating the determination of the regulator to build a healthy capital market, crack down on illegal and criminal acts, create a 'three publics' market environment, and protect the interests of small and medium-sized investors. Yang Delong said.

Yang Delong further pointed out that the regulator's crackdown on all kinds of violations of laws and regulations will effectively improve the investability of the A-share market, and at the same time, it can also greatly boost the confidence of domestic and foreign investors in Chinese assets.

Six years of "good start" in the past ten years

Judging from historical data, in the past ten years, A-shares have had a "good start" after the holiday in six years.

According to a reporter from Beijing Business Daily, in the past ten years from 2014 to 2023, A-shares have had a "good start" after the Spring Festival in 2014, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023, and have had a "good start" for three consecutive years from 2021 to 2023.

According to the data, on the first trading day after the holiday in 2021-2023, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.55%, 2.03%, and 0.14% respectively.

In addition, from the perspective of the history of A-shares, there have been two years of the dragon, namely February 5, 2000 to January 23, 2001, January 23, 2012 to February 9, 2013.

In addition, the pre-holiday A-share repurchase and increase in holdings continued, and on the evening of February 18, the repurchase tide continued, among which Xili Technology, Duolun Technology, Yongxin Zhicheng, Xuantai Pharmaceutical, Nankuang Group and other shares have disclosed the announcement of the intention to repurchase shares.

Taking Nankuang Group as an example, the company disclosed that it intends to use its own funds or financial institution borrowings to repurchase the company's shares in a centralized bidding transaction to maintain the company's value and shareholders' rights, and the total amount of the repurchase is not less than 30 million yuan, not more than 60 million yuan, and the repurchase price is not more than 16 yuan per share.

Shareholders such as Chuanrun shares and bowling treasure plan to increase their shareholdings, among which Chuanrun shares announced on the evening of February 18 that on February 8, 2024, Luo Lihua, one of the company's controlling shareholders and actual controllers, and some directors, supervisors and senior executives increased their holdings of the company's shares by a total of 1.0115 million shares, accounting for 0.231% of the current total share capital, and Luo Lihua intends to continue to increase the amount of shares not less than 9 million yuan and not more than 15 million yuan (including the number and amount of increased holdings on February 8).

A person who did not want to be named told the Beijing Business Daily reporter that the channel for long-term funds to enter the market has been opened, with Huijin Company, social security funds, pensions, insurance funds taking the lead in the market, central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, and private enterprises have successively increased their holdings and repurchases, and the A-share market is expected to continue to rebound and adjust.

The restorative market is expected to continue

In the last three trading days of the Year of the Rabbit, A-shares showed a strong counteroffensive, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose three times in a row. Yang Delong pointed out that the A-share market is expected to continue the pre-holiday upward trend after the holiday, form a linkage with Hong Kong stocks, and start a spring offensive.

Before the holiday, A-shares showed a wide range of shocks, first in January 29 - February 5 There was a wave of sharp falls, the Shanghai Index fell below 2800 points and 2700 points one after another, and then the regulators spoke intensively, and A-shares in February 6 - 8 These three trading days appeared a big counteroffensive, and successfully stood on 2800 points before the holiday.

As of the latest closing day, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 2,865.9 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index were at 8,820.6 points and 1,726.86 points respectively. Yang Delong said that the continuous rise of the A-share market before the holiday has brought a strong money-making effect, and the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is lower than that of A-shares, and the price difference of many AH shares is relatively large, so the continuous rise of A-shares has driven a lot of funds to Hong Kong stocks to lay out some high-quality stocks. Now the Hang Seng Index has risen three times before the opening of A-shares, which also brings opportunities for the A-share market to open next week. "The performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this year is worth looking forward to, with the expectation of economic recovery and the increase in policies to stabilize economic growth, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to start a structural bull market in the Year of the Dragon, and the market's money-making effect is also expected to be much better than the Year of the Rabbit. Investors are advised to remain confident and patient, as the high-quality leading stocks that have been wrongly killed will usher in valuation repair opportunities. Yang Delong said.

Zhao Wei, chief market analyst of Founder Securities, said that there are three main conditions for A-shares to continue to maintain a reversal, one is that the hot spots can continue, that is, they will continue to be led by "double creation", the market is based on scientific and technological growth, new energy, biomedicine and brokers, and the market style is dominated by small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks;

Beijing Business Daily reporter Ma Changchang