#记录我的2024#让大家心心念念的中国茶饮第二股茶百道终于千呼万唤始出来, Chabaidao successfully broke out of the encirclement and finally achieved listing, but what is a little surprising is that on the first day of listing, Chabaidao broke at the opening, fell sharply on the first day of listing, and even fell by 30% intraday.
First, the first day of the listing of tea Baidao fell sharply
According to the surging news report, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd., the parent company of the new tea drink brand "Tea Baidao", was officially listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the "first share of franchised tea drinks" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and also the "second share of new tea drinks" after "Nai Xue's tea".
In 2008, the first tea Baidao was born in Chengdu. In February 2017, Chabaidao Catering was established. At the beginning of 2021, Chabaidao began to reorganize the company's structure, centralize and integrate store management, and now Chabaidao has formed a product matrix composed of classic tea, seasonal tea and regional tea.
The IPO price of Chabaidao is HK$17.5 per share, with a total share capital of 1.478 billion shares, and about 148 million shares are planned to be offered globally, with an estimated fundraising scale of HK$2.586 billion, making it the largest IPO of Hong Kong stocks in 2024 so far.
However, Chabaidao broke on the first day of listing, falling more than 20% at the opening, and the intraday decline once expanded to 38%. As of the close of trading on April 23, Chabaidao was quoted at HK$12.8 per share, down 26.86%, with a market value of HK$18.9 billion.
According to the prospectus, the profit in the past three years totaled 2.895 billion yuan, and from 2021 to 2023, it was 779 million yuan, 965 million yuan, and 1.151 billion yuan respectively. Based on this calculation, the market value of Chabaidao evaporated nearly HK $7 billion on the first day of listing, more than twice the total profit of the previous three years.
On the first day of listing on June 30, 2021, the share price of Nai Xue's tea, the first share of the "new tea drink", also fell by more than 13%, and the cumulative decline since its listing has exceeded 88%.
Second, what happened when the market broke at the opening?
Chabaidao, a tea brand that once attracted a large number of consumers with its unique tea culture and taste, recently encountered an embarrassing situation of a sharp drop in stock prices on the first day of listing, and even lost three years of profits in just one hour, which can not help but make people have deep doubts about its future prospects. So, what happened to Cha Baidao, and why did it encounter such a dilemma at the beginning of the listing?
First of all, the sluggish performance on the first day of tea Baidao's listing was not an accident, and it echoed the similar difficulties encountered by the previously listed new tea giant, Nai Xue's tea, in the early days of its listing. As the "predecessor" of the tea industry, Nai Xue's tea also experienced the embarrassing situation of breaking the opening when it was listed on the Hong Kong stock market, which shows that although tea companies are growing in scale expansion and brand influence, they are facing challenges in the recognition of the capital market. Investors are cautious about the profitability and sustainable growth potential of these emerging consumer brands, especially in the context of an increasingly challenging and homogeneous market environment, and investors are skeptical about whether they can achieve a rebound in earnings in the short term and whether the long-term business model is robust.
Secondly, there are huge problems in the tea track itself. The threshold for this industry is relatively low, and the market competition is extremely fierce. As consumers demand more and more tea quality and taste, the number of tea brands on the market is also increasing, from high-end customization to affordable and people-friendly, various types of tea brands are emerging in an endless stream. However, the saturation of the market and the lack of user stickiness make it difficult for tea brands to stand out from the competition. Due to the easy replication of product production technology and the rapid change of consumer taste preferences, users are relatively weak in stickiness to a single brand, and the competition for market share is extremely fierce. Chabaidao has achieved rapid store opening in the past few years, but as the growth of the market size slows, the average revenue per store may be squeezed, which in turn affects the overall profitability. Although Chabaidao has its own characteristics and advantages, it is not easy to maintain sustainable growth and profitability in such a fierce market competition.
Third, at present, the milk tea market has shown a high degree of saturation, whether it is a bustling business district or a community street, all kinds of milk tea shops are dotted, including many head brands such as Michelle Bingcheng and other strong competitors. In such a fierce competitive environment, tea companies not only need to attract and maintain consumer loyalty through innovative product lines, but also must show differentiated advantages in terms of price positioning, quality control and service experience. However, the market capacity is limited, and the mutual squeezing effect between the top brands is obvious, and the imagination space has been significantly limited in the short term.
Fourth, in the long run, the core of competition in the tea track is gradually shifting from pure marketing strategy to a more bottom-level supply chain capability competition. Although Chabaidao has rapidly expanded thousands of stores in a short period of time, its prospectus reflects that its revenue scale still lags behind major competitors such as Mixue Bingcheng, and the higher net profit margin is partly due to the model of purchasing raw materials and reselling them to franchisees. This means that in the future, if Chabaidao wants to achieve sustainable and stable development, in addition to continuing to strengthen brand building, it also needs to make great efforts in supply chain integration, cost control, standardized production processes and food safety management, so as to enhance its competitiveness and ability to resist market risks.