The chief of the five major brokerages: It is expected that there will be more upside space for A-shares after the holiday

China Fund News reporters Liu Ming, Yan Jingying, Cao Wenjing, Mo Lin

Since the beginning of 2024, the A-share market has continued to fluctuate, after the traditional Spring Festival holiday, how will the Year of the Dragon market be interpreted? What are the concerns of the upcoming National Two Sessions? Where are the investment opportunities in the Year of the Dragon? China Fund News reporter interviewed five chief strategy analysts of well-known securities firms to take the pulse of the market trend in the Year of the Dragon for investors.

The interviewed chief analysts are Qin Peijing, chief strategy analyst of CITIC Securities, Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of China Securities Construction Investment Securities, Fu Jingtao, co-director of Shenwan Hongyuan's total research department and chief analyst of A-share strategy, Yang Chao, chief strategy analyst of China Galaxy Securities, and Wang Kai, chief strategy analyst of Guosen Securities.

Qin Peijing, chief strategy analyst of CITIC Securities

Chen Guo, Chief Strategy Officer of China Securities Securities

Fu Jingtao, co-director of Shenwan Hongyuan's total research department and chief analyst of A-share strategy

Yang Chao, chief strategy analyst of China Galaxy Securities

Wang Kai, chief strategic analyst of Guosen Securities

The key points of the interviewed chief analysts are as follows:

Qin Peijing: Looking forward to 2024, it is expected that the market will continue to look for fundamentals and industrial catalysts in various environments, and tap the main line of growth in two aspects: industrial innovation and demand warming.

Chen Guo: With the support of a series of policy "gift packages", the market is expected to stabilize, and after the recent rapid rebound and repair, the post-holiday market is expected to usher in a series of structural opportunities.

Fu Jingtao: Before the third quarter of 2024, the market may still be in a volatile pattern, and it is still in the range of over-falling rebound, and in the fourth quarter of 2024, when the fundamental expectations switch to 2025, the market center may gradually rise.

Yang Chao: Although the market is in the bottoming stage in the short term, the overall low valuation and the gradual accumulation of positive factors such as policies and the Spring Festival are expected to make the overall upside of the market after the holiday, and the market sentiment is expected to gradually recover.

Wang Kai: Industrial transformation and upgrading is the core trend of the mainland's economic development, and high-tech and high-value-added industries represented by TMT, advanced manufacturing, and life sciences are expected to usher in a new round of development window.

One

The post-holiday market is expected to usher in a series of structural opportunities

China Fund News: After the beginning of 2024, the A-share market continues to fluctuate, and favorable policies are also frequent, what is your review and summary of the market for more than a month at the beginning of the year?

Fu Jingtao: Since the beginning of 2024, the market has had ups and downs, and instead of continuing the rebound in the last two trading days of 2023, it has turned towards a pullback.

Specifically, the outlook for the fundamental supply and demand pattern in 2024 is weak, the strong stimulus policy expected by the market in January has not yet been implemented, and the disturbance of some important verification nodes in the global election year has catalyzed the pessimistic expectations in terms of aggregate. In the process of market correction, although the cost performance has been adjusted in place, there is still the pressure of over-concentration of local positions, especially the high positions of relative income institutions, which are deeply contested by other investors. The style interpretation is extremely volatile, which in turn exacerbates the pressure on the capital side, and the market capital problem is highlighted in late January, and the market continues to pull back.

Since February 6, the expected policy of stabilizing the capital market has been increased, and the determination to control risks has been more directly expressed, and the financial strength to maintain stability has been more widely supported. And the style of attention is also more balanced, the rebound of growth + mid-cap style is conducive to the accelerated alleviation of the capital problem, and the effective resolution of the capital problem is the first opportunity to repair the risk appetite in the short term, and the short-term over-falling rebound has been logical.

Chen Guo: Since the beginning of the year, the market has mainly continued to be pessimistic about the economy, and the micro capital side has encountered passive selling pressure, while the market expects that the interest rate cut in January will not be realized, and the Fed will not pay attention to the interest rate cut in March. The market is expected to stabilize under the support of a series of policy "gift packages", and the market is expected to usher in a series of structural opportunities after the recent rapid rebound repair.

Qin Peijing: Overall, it is expected that the three major drivers will boost market confidence in 2024. First of all, the revival of the domestic economy and the steady recovery of the A-share earnings cycle are the fundamental foundation for the reunification of confidence. It is expected that the national economic growth target this year will be around 5%, and the recovery of demand and price improvement are expected to drive the earnings growth rate of all A-shares (CSI 800 caliber) to recover from 1% in 2023 to 6%.

Second, the end of the US dollar interest rate hike cycle and the opening of domestic monetary policy space are a favorable catalyst for the reunion of confidence. The timing of the Fed's first interest rate cut may be around the middle of the year, and the transition of the dollar cycle is conducive to opening up the domestic monetary policy space.

Finally, the capital market policy to stabilize liquidity expectations, and the investment-side reform represented by the introduction of long-term funds is the institutional guarantee for the reunion of confidence.

In addition, changes in the behavior of four types of investors have brought incremental funds, of which long-term allocation funds are the main force. It is expected that the active public offering will increase the allocation of low-valuation recovery sectors, and ETFs will undertake incremental funds to enter the market; there is more room for subjective long private placements to increase positions, and the supervision of quantitative private placements will continue to be optimized; the marginal turn of transactional foreign capital will turn positive, and the allocation of foreign capital is still waiting for the opportunity to enter the market; and the steady entry of medium and long-term funds such as insurance will become the ballast stone.

Yang Chao: Since 2024, the A-share market has weakened periodically, mainly due to the continued sluggish sentiment of small and medium-sized caps. Since 2023, the economic fundamentals need to be boosted, the major changes in the relationship between real estate supply and demand, the transformation of old and new momentum, and domestic demand still need to be boosted, which have also affected market sentiment and investor confidence.

Although the market is in the bottoming stage in the short term, the overall low valuation and the gradual accumulation of positive factors such as policies and the Spring Festival are expected to make the overall upside of the market after the holiday larger, and the market sentiment is also expected to gradually recover.

Wang Kai: Since the beginning of 2024, the stock market has continued to fluctuate, and from an external point of view, the escalation of overseas geopolitical conflicts has exacerbated the uncertainty of the global market, resulting in increased risk aversion in the market and a slowdown in the pace of foreign capital inflows. From an internal point of view, after nearly three years of volatility in the A-share market, investors' confidence has been affected to a certain extent, the market sentiment is cautious, and it will take some time to repair. Under the combined effect of internal and external factors, the market has shown a trend of phased weakening.

During the period of market pressure, the high-dividend and medium-special valuation sectors have become the preferred strategy to deal with market risks by virtue of their high margin of safety and strong investment attributes, and at the same time, the intensive introduction of aggregate policies and capital market policies has played a role in maintaining market confidence.

Two

Optimistic about the A-share market in the Year of the Dragon

It is expected to show a modest increase

China Fund News: Looking forward to the Year of the Dragon, what is your overall judgment on the A-share market, and how will the follow-up market perform?

Chen Guo: We are optimistic about the start of the A-share market in the Year of the Dragon, we believe that the A-share market will open lower and move higher, and the market will gradually realize that China's economy has no risk of stalling, and the policy will be quite flexible and flexible. After the risk-free rate continues to fall, the stock market will eventually receive capital inflows due to attractive valuations, and the supply pressure of A-shares in the Year of the Dragon will be greatly eased, and the relationship between supply and demand will be significantly improved.

Wang Kai: We are optimistic about the A-share market and expect it to show moderate growth. From an external perspective, the Fed is expected to release interest rate cuts, and the global economy is expected to benefit from the recovery of loose liquidity, and the pressure on foreign capital outflows has also eased.

However, it should still be noted that the current pace of recovery of real sector demand is slow, which has formed a certain constraint on the upward trend of risk sentiment. Therefore, while we are optimistic about the A-share market this year, we are cautiously optimistic about the expectation of gains.

Fu Jingtao: The first three quarters of 2024 will still be a volatile market, focusing on structural opportunities, and in the fourth quarter of 2024, the market center is expected to rise. Specifically, the overall pattern of fundamentals in 2024 is "inelastic on the demand side and pressure on the supply side":

1. China's economy was resilient at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, but the market is still observing the follow-up sustainability. Real estate investment and the U.S.-China inventory cycle have supported the economy from high to low. The market ferments and the optimistic expectations of the economy are highly dependent on the fulfillment of strong policy stimulus.

2. The supply pressure of some industries is widespread, and both the upstream cycle and midstream manufacturing will rise before the third quarter of 2024. The intensification of competition in new consumption and consumer science and technology is also the result of excess capital and concentrated investment in the primary market. In 2025, the supply and demand pattern is likely to improve marginally. Then before the third quarter of 2024, the market may still be in a volatile pattern, and the current rebound after the chip structure is cleared is still in the category of over-falling rebound. In the fourth quarter of 2024, when the fundamental expectations switch to 2025, the market pivot may gradually rise.

Yang Chao: Looking ahead, a new round of equipment renewal cycle and inventory cycle is expected to open in 2024, but under the pressure of real estate destocking, the opening time may be delayed, and the upward slope may be limited. With the high probability of the economy continuing to improve, the marginal improvement in corporate performance, coupled with the overall low market valuation, provides support for the upward trend of A-shares. It is judged that the probability of A-share shock and upward movement in 2024 is relatively large, and with the shift of overseas monetary policy, the upward momentum in the second half of the year may be more obvious.

At present, the risk aversion in the market is strong, and the market value management assessment policy of central enterprises is catalyzed, and the market and value style are expected to continue to prevail. The results of the 2023 annual report are gradually disclosed, looking at the performance in the short term, the forecast rate is nearly half, the negative impact is greatly weakened, the market fundamentals tend to be stable, and the trading volume is expected to continue to increase. Approaching the March two sessions policy expectations to heat up, funds began to start a new layout, market risk appetite may be expected to improve.

Three

domestic policy strength and economic recovery,

Changes in the Fed's interest rate and the global election are important variables

China Fund News: What are the key variables that will affect the trend of the A-share market in 2024?

Yang Chao: At present, many factors at home and abroad affect the trend of the A-share market. Overseas factors mainly include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and geopolitical factors. At present, inflation has gradually fallen, but inflation is still sticky, and the timing of interest rate cuts is uncertain. Geopolitical factors will also have a greater impact on commodity prices and trade environment.

Domestic factors, the performance of the mainland economy is one of the key variables affecting the trend of the A-share market. In 2024, the domestic economy is still in a period of transition between old and new drivers, and as the effect of the steady growth policy continues to appear, the mainland economy is expected to continue to improve, driving the A-share market upward. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the pressure of real estate destocking.

In addition, the introduction of relevant policies in mainland China will also significantly affect the A-share market. Since the central government proposed to "activate the capital market and boost investor confidence", the mainland has successively introduced a number of favorable policies, and the follow-up policies have been gradually implemented, which is expected to become a greater driving force for the A-share market.

Fu Jingtao: The outlook for the subsequent economic and policy mix is still the most critical variable, including whether the domestic economy can continue to recover effectively, the assessment of the effect of domestic policies, the outlook for the end of the Fed's interest rate hikes, and the clues of the US economic recession. In addition, the promotion of the construction of the domestic capital market, the progress of the technology industry trend at home and abroad, and the key verification of the global election year are also factors worth paying attention to.

Wang Kai: On the one hand, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations will help ease the pressure on foreign capital outflows, and with the prospect of improving global liquidity pressures, the repair of the denominator is expected to be structurally positive for the technology sector, thereby enhancing the market attractiveness of the growth sector supported by performance.

On the other hand, 2024 is a global election year, with elections held in nearly 60% of global GDP, and the uncertainty contained in this election boom and the reshaping of the global future pattern may lead to certain pressure on market risk sentiment in the short term, exacerbating short-term volatility in the stock market.

Chen Guo: Overall, the Fed's start of the interest rate cut cycle will be beneficial to the valuation of A-shares, although the Fed's interest rate cut is slightly later than the market's optimistic expectations, but over time, the liquidity environment of A-shares will continue to improve.

Qin Peijing: Domestically, the capital market reform is expected to shift from the "financing side" to the "investment side" reform that pays more attention to the investor experience.

It is expected that one of the highlights is to increase the introduction of medium and long-term funds, including optimizing accounting treatment, establishing a long-term assessment mechanism, and expanding the coverage of the second and third pillars of pension through tax incentives;

In addition, in terms of economic reform, the Third Plenum of the CPC Central Committee often plays the role of a new round of reform charge, and we can pay attention to the blueprint for reform in the new era proposed in the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee.

Overseas, the U.S. election may have a certain impact on Sino-US relations. The second quarter of 2024 to the end of 2024 may be a period of disruption in the U.S. election, and given the low suspense of the party's primary election results, the head-to-head showdown between the two parties is expected to gradually start in the second quarter of 2024, and the resulting external disturbances may become more frequent.

Four

There are many opportunities for growth in science and technology

The reform of state-owned enterprises is also worth paying attention to

China Fund News: Since the beginning of 2024, the market style has switched rapidly, what kind of style and sector do you think will have stronger performance this year?

Qin Peijing: Looking forward to 2024, it is expected that the market will still look for fundamentals and industrial catalysts in various environments, and explore the main line of growth in two aspects: industrial innovation and demand warming, among which the technology sector includes the wave of the AI industry (computing power, applications, large models, etc.), the independent and controllable semiconductor (AI chip design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, equipment, etc.), the warming of terminal consumption (Android chain recovery, data elements, operators), and the pharmaceutical sector focuses on innovation (drugs, devices) and overseas varieties.

In addition, before and after the two sessions of the National People's Congress is an important decision-making window for the layout of the white horse faucet. Since the beginning of 2021, the valuation of the traditional value investment strategy with high ROE strategy and growth pricing GARP strategy has been under pressure, and it has been adjusted for nearly three years. In this context, taking the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress as an opportunity, there may be a rapid reversal of investors' expectations, which will promote the valuation repair of consumption, new energy, Internet and other white horse varieties.

In the second half of 2024, as the economic operation returns to normal, and the interest rate level in China and the United States decreases, we can pay attention to the direction of independent and controllable science and technology and high-end manufacturing corresponding to the high-quality development of the economy.

Fu Jingtao: In terms of structural selection, we suggest focusing on two main lines:

1) In the context of medium-term demand, supply, going overseas, and investment opportunities in technological innovation are not easy to spread, high dividends will benefit from the decline in the risk-free rate in the medium term. Among them, the medium-term real benefit from the decline of the risk-free interest rate is the steady state high dividend (stable dividend expectations are not easily affected by fundamental cycle fluctuations, typical industries include electricity, coal, railways and highways, operators, etc.; there may be overlooked steady state high dividends in consumer goods, including textiles and apparel, food processing, beverages and dairy products, etc.) and dynamic high dividends (dividend yield from low to high, stable dividend expectations from scratch, the focus of follow-up target mining is midstream manufacturing).

2) In 2024, the interest rate environment will improve, and structural opportunities will emerge in the growth area, and we will actively grasp the industrial trend. Focus on AI applications (Huawei Ascend, AIPC industry chain), semiconductors (TSMC's performance supports the inflection point of the consumer electronics boom, and the domestic semiconductor process will eventually benefit), Huawei operating system, robotics, and national defense and military industry (aviation OEMs).

Chen Guo: Overall, from the perspective of earnings valuation, cost performance, incremental capital inflow direction and market risk appetite, we believe that large-cap value stocks will prevail this year, and high-quality state-owned enterprise revaluation and resource stocks are worth paying attention to. In the growth track, the progress of wearable devices, robots and AI applications is worth tracking.

Yang Chao: At present, the risk aversion in the market is strong, and the market value management assessment policy of central enterprises is catalyzed, and the market and value style are expected to continue to prevail. Approaching the policy expectations of the two sessions in March, the market risk appetite may be expected to improve, and funds will start a new layout.

First of all, in terms of theme style, the first is the large and small market game, under the stock game, the small market is relatively dominant, and when the incremental capital accelerates the entry, the large market is more likely to prevail. Once they enter the rebound channel, small-cap stocks may be stronger, but in the second half of the year, the U.S. monetary policy ushered in an inflection point, and the possibility of local dominance of large-cap stocks gradually increased. The second is the game of growth and value, the growth value style in the first half of 2024 may be relatively balanced, but with the shift of overseas monetary policy, the possibility of growth stocks dominating in the second half of the year will gradually increase.

Secondly, in terms of structural allocation, the three main lines of the reform theme of central state-owned enterprises, domestic substitution of scientific and technological innovation, and large consumption segments with excellent performance are preferred. First, with the continuous promotion of policies, the main line of state-owned enterprise reform can continue to be concerned. The second is domestic substitution of scientific and technological innovation. It can mainly focus on semiconductors (semiconductor equipment), communication services (operators), games, film and television theaters and other sectors. The third is the consumption segmentation with excellent performance, such as food and beverage (liquor), medicine and biology (traditional Chinese medicine), tourism, transportation, etc. Fourth, the field of security, including food security, information security (digital economy), national defense and military industry, etc. Fifth, grasp some transactional opportunities: upstream energy products, financial real estate industry chain, green and low-carbon related fields, etc.

Wang Kai: First of all, industrial transformation and upgrading is the core trend of the mainland's economic development, and high-tech and high-value-added industries represented by TMT, advanced manufacturing, and life sciences are expected to usher in a new round of development window period.

Secondly, in the context of Sino-US trade frictions, industries that have a comparative advantage in technology and can break through overseas trade sanctions and technological blockades, including: nanomaterials and manufacturing in the field of advanced materials and manufacturing, coatings, advanced radio frequency communications in the field of artificial intelligence, computing and communications, hydrogen and ammonia for power in the field of energy and environment, supercapacitors and batteries, synthetic biology in the field of biotechnology and gene technology, optoelectronic sensors in the field of sensing, timing and navigation, defense, space, Optoelectronic sensors in robotics and transportation.

Five

It is expected to increase countercyclical adjustment

It is expected that the two sessions will strengthen monetary and fiscal policies

China Fund News: The two sessions of the National People's Congress are about to be held, what are the expectations for this year's two sessions, and what are the predictions for the policy side of the whole year?

Fu Jingtao: For this year's National People's Congress and the National People's Congress, we recommend paying attention to the following highlights:

1. From the perspective of the local two sessions, the structural problems of China's economy (real estate, chemical debt) have brought obvious pressure to the local government, and the growth rate of real estate investment will likely fall in 2024.

2. The central bank has emphasized that "the monetary policy gap between China and the United States tends to converge", providing clues for further easing in the future, and the two sessions of the National People's Congress will pay attention to the specific implementation of monetary policy in 2024;

3. The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "incorporating non-economic policies into the consistency assessment of macro policy orientation", and the two sessions of the National People's Congress focused on how to implement them;

4. "Reform" and "opening up" are the key task titles of the Central Economic Work Conference, and the pace of short-term active opening up has begun.

In 2024, the policy force will be more active, and the management will have a clearer understanding of the potential economic pressure for the whole year, while emphasizing that in 2024, "focusing on the central work of economic construction and the primary task of high-quality development", the policy force is still worth looking forward to.

Chen Guo: Considering the base effect, it will be significantly more difficult for the economy to achieve the ideal growth rate this year than last year, and it is expected that the two sessions of the National People's Congress will further strengthen the tone of monetary and fiscal policy to ensure the completion of this year's goals on the basis of the Central Economic Work Conference's "seeking progress while maintaining stability and promoting stability through progress". In the field of risk prevention, we will strengthen the promotion of real estate delivery guarantees, strengthen the support for the liquidity risk of high-quality real estate enterprises, and ensure risk control in the real estate field.

Qin Peijing: In 2024, the policy level needs to face the balance between short-term economic stabilization and long-term transformation, counter-cyclical adjustment is expected to increase, and the reform blueprint for the new era will eventually be launched.

On the one hand, it is expected that the policy will move with the times, and macroeconomic control and industrial policies need to continue to exert efforts to ensure that the economic situation is stable and improving.

On the other hand, the policy will be planned for the long term, and the urgency of reform and transformation is becoming more and more obvious. At present, the constraints on China's economic growth have increased, the room for policy maneuver has narrowed, and the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations has not been fundamentally resolved.

Yang Chao: The National People's Congress and the National People's Congress are about to be held, and investors' expectations for policy increases are gradually increasing. It is expected that the national economic growth target for 2024 may be based on a 5% benchmark. The two sessions of the National People's Congress are expected to continue to focus on high-quality development. As the main focus of the steady growth policy, many places have clearly mentioned expanding effective investment and moderately advancing major infrastructure construction, of which infrastructure, old city renovation and affordable housing are the three major force points.

Wang Kai: The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference proposed to lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, and the leading role of scientific and technological innovation is becoming more and more important.

In terms of industrial policy, "establish first and then break down", strengthen innovation and guidance, accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system, and pay attention to the transformation and development of traditional industries; in terms of monetary policy, "seeking progress while maintaining stability" is expected to maintain an accommodative posture, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, promote the steady and moderate reduction of comprehensive social financing costs, and further strengthen the support for scientific and technological innovation, green transformation, inclusive small and micro enterprises, and digital economy; in terms of fiscal policy, fiscal policy will be implemented precisely.

Six

What are the potential risk factors to look out for?

China Fund News: What are the potential risks in the market in 2024 and how to avoid them in investment?

Wang Kai: First of all, the security of industrial and supply chains is becoming increasingly prominent. With the continuous escalation of global geopolitical conflicts and the wave of deglobalization that may be triggered by the global election again this year, the stability of the international trade environment and the security of industrial and supply chains are facing unprecedented challenges.

Second, the sector rotation dominated by thematic investment is accelerating, and sector volatility is also intensifying. In the current stage of transformation and development, a large number of structural themes have emerged in the market, which makes some sectors more volatile, which in turn increases the complexity and difficulty of investment.

Finally, the outlook for the pace of recovery in the overseas inventory cycle is not clear. Due to the possible delay in the pull of external demand brought about by overseas inventory replenishment, coupled with the persistence of anti-globalization risks, the stimulating effect of external demand on the domestic manufacturing industry may face a series of impacts such as overseas economic recovery twists and turns, overseas geopolitical problems, etc.

In terms of response, the first is to select safe assets through global investment to diversify portfolio risks, the second is to rationally arrange the ratio of stocks and bonds, and appropriately increase the asset allocation weight of the portfolio with low correlation with traditional assets such as stocks and bonds, and the third is to continue the barbell strategy to build a bottom position with low valuation, good prosperity and high dividends, while focusing on growth themes to increase returns.

Fu Jingtao: The potential downside risks in 2024 are: 1) international geopolitical factors disrupting risk appetite, 2) U.S. Treasury yields have remained high for too long, and the speed and magnitude of the decline are not as fast as expected, and 3) Japan's monetary policy shift will affect global liquidity.

In terms of countermeasures, we suggest: 1. Pay attention to the progress of important macro events: verification of U.S. employment and inflation data, U.S. elections, international geopolitical conflicts, Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, etc.; 2. Continue to pay attention to market funds, beware of liquidity risks, and strengthen monitoring and management of stock positions.

Chen Guo: The risks brought about by the adjustment of China's real estate in 2024 are still worth paying attention to, while the impact of the overseas economic downturn and the stock market adjustment, as well as the impact of the US election, is also worth watching. In investing, more attention needs to be paid to the direction of earnings volatility, which is less affected by real estate and overseas and has reasonable valuations.

Qin Peijing: Possible risks include: the risk resolution in the domestic real estate sector is less than expected, and the further escalation of geopolitical issues such as the "Russia-Ukraine conflict" and the "Palestinian-Israeli conflict" overseas.

Yang Chao: Overseas, first, geopolitical factors may disrupt the capital market and may push up global inflation expectations; second, the uncertainty of the U.S. election, we should continue to pay attention to the impact of the U.S. election on the global asset allocation, and at the same time, we should also pay attention to the rise of market risk aversion; third, the downside risk of the global economy.

Domestically, it is expected that the domestic economy will still be in a period of transition between old and new drivers in 2024, as the effect of the steady growth policy continues to appear, domestic demand will gradually recover, and exports will bottom out, and the mainland economy is expected to continue to improve, but it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of high-frequency real estate data on domestic demand;

In investment, we should make reasonable strategic allocation, closely combine the current economic environment, adhere to fundamental analysis, and pay attention to risk control and hedging to better avoid market risks.

Editor: Joey

Review: Xu Wen

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