A few days ago, the US military base in Jordan was attacked by a local armed group, resulting in the death of three US soldiers and the wounding of more than 40 people, which was the first attack on the US military since October last year, and also the first time that a US soldier was killed as a result. The U.S. government claims that this move has touched the bottom line, and the United States will definitely retaliate against it.
[The Biden administration says it will retaliate against Iran]
But who is the target of retaliation? The United States targeted Iran, and the United States claimed that after an assessment, it confirmed that the drone that killed three American troops and injured more than 40 others was Iranian-made. Although Iranian officials have denied this, the US side does not believe it, and according to senior US officials, US President Joe Biden has approved the launch of attacks on targets including "Iranian personnel and facilities" in Iraq and Syria.
Previously, the US media analyzed the way the White House punished Iran and gave three plans, one of which is to crack down on Iran's proxy organizations or overseas personnel. Analysts say the U.S. can retaliate by striking Iran's so-called "axis of resistance," that is, armed forces that are funded by Iranian money and weapons, such as the Houthis in Yemen and militia groups in Syria and Iraq. It also cites a U.S. intelligence adviser who claims that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies in Syria are the primary targets of U.S. strikes, which is in line with current U.S. statements.
The second type of attack is financial and economic sanctions. This is a common tactic used by the United States, which for a long time has besieged Iran's economy in order to force Tehran to compromise on its nuclear program, such as freezing its overseas funds, seizing its oil tankers, and blocking its natural gas and energy sales.
[Iranian oil tanker seized by the United States]
However, it should be mentioned that in recent years, Iran has joined the SCO and BRICS one after another, which has given it a better room for relief in the face of US economic sanctions: on the one hand, these two organizations provide Iran with a platform to make its voice heard on the international stage, and on the other hand, by strengthening economic and trade relations with the BRICS countries, Iran is expected to gain more economic resources and technology transfer. In particular, with the help of China and Russia, Iran has enough confidence and advantages to get rid of US sanctions
The third option is much more straightforward, that is, a direct attack on Iran itself. Recently, US Admiral Stavridis publicly suggested that the US military launch a direct attack on Iranian territory.
At the top of the U.S. administration, there are not a few voices that have attacked Iran like this, and most of them are Republicans. But because the idea is so radical, many people think that the idea is unlikely to come true, after all, the White House has previously revealed that it does not seek war with Iran.
But you must know that the United States is currently in a critical period of the election, if the Biden administration cannot make a strong response to the death of US military personnel, it will be interpreted by the outside world as a weakness to Iran. If Biden loses because of this, his dream of re-election will undoubtedly be shattered in advance. This also means that if Iran and the armed forces it supports continue to "go toe-to-toe" with the United States, the United States is likely to target Iran itself with artillery shells in order to show its determination to the people.
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For Iran, although it is not afraid of conflict with the United States, once the conflict does occur, the negative impact on Iran is still very large:
From a military point of view, although Iran has a strong army and multiple proxy forces, there is a clear gap between its military capabilities and that of the United States. a military conflict with the United States, which could lead to significant losses for Iran, including the destruction of military facilities and infrastructure, as well as casualties;
From the perspective of international relations, a conflict with the United States could weaken Iran's relations with other countries, especially those that want to maintain good relations with the United States, may distance themselves from Iran and exacerbate Iran's international isolation.
Judging from the domestic situation, the long-term economic difficulties and external conflicts have already generated strong discontent in Iran, and if a conflict occurs, it will undoubtedly increase Iran's military spending, and social problems such as people's livelihood problems and employment problems may increase, thus exacerbating its social unrest.
[Khamenei says to avoid conflict with the United States]
In terms of the balance of the situation in the Middle East, Iran has its own strategic interests and influence in the Middle East, including a network of proxies in countries such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. A direct conflict with the United States may deal a serious blow to Iran's "winged forces," which in turn will affect Iran's strategic position and interests in the Middle East.
A few days ago, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei issued an order to avoid direct war with the United States and to keep Iran at a distance from the militias that killed Americans. Although it is not directly singled out, the militia mentioned here is indispensable for the Houthis who are fighting the United States in the Red Sea.
Iran's current situation, to put it bluntly, is dancing in shackles, although it will stimulate the United States from time to time, but basically it can only be carried out secretly poked behind the back, and will not be put on the table, after all, the instability of its own domestic situation and the limitations of the general environment in the Middle East have formed great restrictions on Iran. Under such circumstances, if it rashly starts a war with the United States, it is obviously betting on the security and interests of its own people, and if it loses the bet, it will be difficult for Iran to turn over.