Although it has been devastated for two years, shareholders still have great expectations for the new year.
The cruel truth is that a whole month has passed, and not only has the suffering not ended, but also refreshed everyone's perception of suffering.
The stock market is no longer measured by any broad-based index. The only indicator that can describe the personal feelings of investors is the number of gainers and losers. This is the palmares for January:
There is also a popular friendly description of A-shares - a "stock crash" bull market.
Because outside of this report card, the Shanghai Composite Index in January has been out of the bottom, the Shanghai Composite 50 only fell slightly by 3%, the central enterprise index rose by 3.5%, the central enterprise dividend index rose by nearly 5%, the banking sector index rose by 5.5%, and the five major banks hit a new high since 2018......
As a result, the authorities may face a dilemma: to save or not to save?
The "stock market crash" has been saved, but what about the "bull market"? If it is saved, it is equivalent to not recognizing the bull market and the stock market being "running in a healthy and steady manner."
If you are saved, why is it falling more and more when you are saved?
If the national team's funds are used as the standard for bailing out the market, then after the 7.24 meeting last year, the bailout operation can be regarded as the beginning.
These funds are mainly flowing into broad-based ETFs, which were led by the first wave of ETF mini-booms in August last year. Since then, the monthly net inflow data of equity ETFs can be used as an indirect indicator of the national team's capital bailout.
However, it can be clearly seen from historical data that after August last year, the obvious net inflow was only in December last year and January this year, and both were only more than 100 billion yuan.
Looking back at the bailout in 2015, it was 3 trillion at that time. If it weren't for the fact that there were internal ghosts frantically picking wool, there was a high probability that 3 trillion would be just enough at that time.
The number of listed companies is now about twice as large as in 2015, and the market capitalization is twice as large as it was then. Therefore, it is very easy to estimate that the reasonable scale of bailout funds is about 6 trillion.
A comparison will find that the scale of funds of more than 100 billion yuan per month for 3 months is just scratching the itch in the boots - if you don't pretend to save the market, then you haven't started to save the market at all.
No matter which possibility it is, the result can only be "the more you save and the more you fall".
To add insult to injury, even if it is really being rescued, it is only to focus on saving one's own assets. The small and medium-sized enterprises where the shareholders are located do not take a look. This kind of "rescue" method will only lead to two results: one is that the market is more desperate, and the other is speculation and speculation.
Again, either outcome will only exacerbate the "stock crash" bull market.
Some people are particularly considerate of the bailout funds, believing that this is due to the limited funds and the fact that they cannot be bought at all, so they can only concentrate their efforts.
Not to mention that hundreds of billions of yuan itself cannot be regarded as bailout funds, what is the cause of the problem of "not being able to buy them all at all"? Why can A-shares be so bloated today? The reason for planting oneself is that we have to bear it with tears in our eyes.
In the face of the positive, why doesn't the market buy it?
There is not only one form of bailout, in addition to real money, it can also be driven by favorable policies. The bailout in 2018 took the latter form.
In terms of the number of favorable policies, since the second half of last year, there is more than any previous year. But if you look at the stock market trend, you will find that the market is almost not buying it in the face of the positive, and it is becoming less and less popular.
There are two reasons for this:
On the one hand, there is inconsistency. For example, the top has relaxed the monetary system, but the money below has been deposited in the banking system for various reasons, and it cannot flow out at all; for example, the above has just stated that it wants to change the stock market's positioning of "emphasizing financing over investment," and the following localities have made a high-profile statement that "50 new listed companies will be added this year."
On the other hand, at the same time, I don't know if it is a coincidence, many policies have inadvertently left a back door for short-sellers and hollow-outs. As a result, hollowing out behaviors are endless, and they are repeatedly prohibited. There is no need to cite specific examples, the cancer of the stock market has been complained about for several months, and it is enough to explain that it is still complaining.
This kind of good news is even more detrimental to the stock market. Because with the overdraft of credibility, the market even panics as soon as it sees the good. Unfortunately, it has now entered this state.
The necessity of bailing out the market
If there is anything sadder than "making money on the index and not making money", it is that "the total market value of A-shares is bullish, and the index is stagnant".
From another perspective, you will be surprised to find that A-shares have been in a long bullish position, and the trend is particularly beautiful. The Shanghai Composite Index has to be convinced.
In previous years, at the end of the year, there were always some financial media that could quickly "summarize" the per capita profit of XX million yuan for shareholders that year. The statistical method is simple and crude, and it is particularly lacking, that is, the increase in the total market value of A-shares divided by the number of shareholders. This statistical method can often calculate a good positive return per capita in a year when investors are generally losing money.
It wasn't until the end of last year that they were finally embarrassed to "summarize" like this. If you still calculate it like this, although the per capita profit of shareholders last year was negative, it was only a slight loss of 2% per capita!
Civilians and high-level perspectives are often different.
Haitong recently had a research report that argued the need to revitalize the capital market. One of the core charts is to compare the gap between the proportion of property income between China and the United States, arguing that after the property market cools, the stock market should take over the burden of income generation and catch up with the United States.
However, the top management sees a completely different picture, and they see a major opportunity in another core set of charts: Chinese people only allocate 2% of their income to stocks and funds, far lower than the 35% in the United States, and even compared with about 10% in Germany and Japan, the market space for direct integration is extremely huge. (Note: This is 2019 data)
Then there was the take-off in the number of IPOs after 2019.
Blindly guess, the KPI in the village is not an index, not even the number of IPOs, not to mention the profit and loss of small and medium-sized shareholders, but the total market value of A-shares. The number of IPOs is just a means of "the market value is not enough, and the number of companies is made up". The role of the Shanghai Composite Index is only to satisfy the hope of the United States to "squeeze the bubble" in the mainland stock market on the one hand, and to maintain its international image on the other. As a result, there have been more than ten years of neither rise nor fall.
From the transfer of personnel, it can be seen that the KPI in the village has been completed very well, which is much more powerful than that of Yang Ma.
The speculation of the total market capitalization KPI also explains the choice of rescue timing in previous years:
Whether it was the bailout at the end of 2008, the bailout in the second half of 2015, or the bailout at the end of 2018, it was after a large drawdown in the total market capitalization. And the amplitude of this "larger drawdown" has obviously not been reached at present. Even though the shareholders and the people have been numb.
In other words, the need for a bailout has not yet been sufficient, let alone last year.
In addition, to put it objectively, it is not a good thing to save the market early.
In the past two years, many places still have money, and a lot of subsidies have been given to strategic industries such as photovoltaic and new energy, which has temporarily saved many enterprises. However, as a result, due to the obstruction of the normal elimination mechanism of the industry's clearance period, it has led to overcapacity, and there has been an industry involution that does not have to appear. Even because bad money drives out good money, it also hinders the progress of technological breakthroughs.
The same is true for the stock market bailout, a premature bailout will make the bear market longer, because it will hinder the normal liquidation of the bear market phase - not only the liquidation of chips, but more importantly, the liquidation of fraudulent issuance, illegal holdings and other mechanisms. As long as these things continue to be indulged, the stock market will not be able to be saved.
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