The recent international situation can be described in one sentence as "the mountain rain is about to come, and the wind is full of buildings". Both militarily and economically, the world seems to be preparing for a new round of "reshuffle".
Militarily, the risk of spillovers from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is becoming increasingly clear. At least three U.S. soldiers were killed and dozens injured when a drone fired by Iraqi militias hit a U.S. military base along the border between Jordan and Syria.
Biden named Iran responsible for the attack and vowed to retaliate. In the next few days, there is a high probability that the US military will make a lot of noise in the Middle East.
Biden
As of the early morning of January 31, a total of six NATO military aircraft in the Middle East had turned on ADS transponders, including the US Navy's C-2A, C-130T, KC130, and the British Royal Air Force's A400MMKC2 and C-17A. The next retaliation against Iran is likely to be the United States and Britain.
This round of retaliation will not necessarily bomb Iran itself, but the "Arc of Resistance" forces in Syria and Iraq will most likely become targets of the United States and Britain.
However, Israel's successive setbacks in the Gaza Strip and the US-British air strikes in Yemen have shown one thing, that is, in the Middle East, which has rich experience in struggle, it is unrealistic to simply rely on air strikes to "plow the court and sweep holes" and clear the enemy's firepower points. Therefore, the final result of this round of attacks by the United States and Britain is likely to provoke a new round of retaliation by the local militia.
American
And this surprise attack obviously undermined the US plan to withdraw from the Middle East as soon as possible.
Last week, the US media "Wall Street Journal" just broke the news that Biden decided to start high-level talks with Iraq because he did not want to get involved in the chaos in the Middle East, hoping to withdraw the so-called "coalition troops stationed there". It is said that it is a "coalition force", but in fact, the main body is the US military.
To put it bluntly, the United States wants to "cut through the mess quickly" and shift its strategic focus from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific and Eastern Europe as soon as possible. But this wishful thinking is obviously in vain now.
China and Russia
At the same time, in the Indo-Pacific direction, China and Russia have also stepped up pressure on the United States. A few days ago, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) organized military exercises in the Yellow Sea. In addition, Russia's Pacific Fleet also went deep into the South China Sea to conduct anti-submarine exercises. It is clear that this is a strong response to the United States to destabilize the situation in the Indo-Pacific.
Economically, Russia holds the rotating presidency of the BRICS this year. The Central Bank of Russia has made it clear that it will establish a new settlement system to replace SWIFT.
Considering that Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two major oil powers, have become new members of the BRICS, once completed, it will have a great impact on the petro-dollar hegemony. At present, some "allies" of the United States, such as Japan, which have a keen sense of smell, have begun to keenly change their tone and play a "two-headed bet" between the United States and China and Russia.
Fumio Kishida
A few days ago, when Fumio Kishida delivered a speech on the policy of the Diet, he not only proposed to establish stable and "constructive" relations with China, but also expressed Japan's intention to continue negotiations with Russia on the territorial issue and promote the implementation of the "peace agreement" between the two countries as soon as possible.
Of course, in addition to these beautiful words, Japan has also put a lot of nonsense, such as "the wicked sue first", making a fuss about the East China Sea and the South China Sea, trying to make excuses for its militarism, and at the same time saying that it wants to consolidate the US-Japan alliance and extend sanctions against Russia, and so on.
Japan is a country where US troops are stationed, and its sovereignty is incomplete, and it will be quite difficult to "jump back" before the frame of US hegemony has completely collapsed. However, Kishida's presentation of Sino-Japanese relations and the Japan-Russia "peace agreement" on paper is itself a kind of temptation, which is enough to prove that he has found that the situation is not good and wants to "leave a way out" for himself.
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