Some time ago, the Chinese army conducted an unprecedented combat exercise on the border with Myanmar, which was seen as a serious warning to the warring parties in Myanmar. Considering that the Kachin army was fighting against the Burmese army at the time, and that it had captured the town of Leki, an important trading port on the border with Myanmar, and that the largest civilian army in northern Myanmar in pursuit of independence, which had sabotaged China-Myanmar cooperation projects many times in history, the Chinese maneuver's exercise was interpreted as a warning to the Kachin army to stop and not to bring the war to China's side, which is completely reasonable.
The reason why we believe that the Kachin army's offensive is not good for China's interests is mainly based on practical considerations and historical reasons.
From a practical point of view, the Kachin army's occupation of the important trade route between China and Myanmar not only has military strategic value, but also can obtain a large amount of financial benefits. By taxing passing goods, the Kachin forces have the potential to further increase their military strength. At about the same time, the Kachin Army's success would mean the defeat of the Burmese army, and Burma's security as a strategic energy corridor for China would be threatened. Why do you say that? It depends on the ugly things that the Kachin army has done in history, and it may also be related to the instigation of the United States. China's conflict with the Kachin Army stems mainly from several dam projects in Myanmar. The Myitsone power station project is a major Sino-Burmese cooperation project, and its dam site is under the jurisdiction of government forces, but the project was shelved due to the fact that the reservoir was inundated in an area controlled by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the fanning behind the back of the Americans. The Chinese side suffered losses of more than 7.3 billion yuan, as well as financial expenses and loan interest of 300 million yuan per year. Myanmar's Taipingjiang hydropower station is located in Kachin State, and the Kachin independence forces have been interfering with the construction and operation of the power station, repeatedly demanding huge sums of money from Chinese companies, and finally losing chicken feathers.
At present, in the context of China's promotion of peace in northern Myanmar, the Kachin armed forces have not actively cooperated, but have greatly expanded their sphere of influence, creating a more complicated situation. This is, of course, something we don't want to see. However, it is very interesting that the commander-in-chief of the Kachin Independence Army, Lieutenant General Nbhangla, recently made a speech: "If we can receive the same respect and equal treatment as your Dehong Prefecture, then we will willingly regard the Kachin region as a provincial-level administrative region within your territory." Those who are familiar with the reasons for the outbreak of the war in Ukraine should understand the meaning, of course, throwing an olive branch to China to expand its territory. Of course, we cannot be fooled, because this force not only has close ties with the United States and is currently undermining China's efforts to restore peace in northern Burma, but also has impure motives for making this statement.
One obvious strategy is to drive a wedge between China and the Burmese government. Myanmar's military junta has recently pushed ahead with economic cooperation projects with China, and has even arrested a deputy defense minister for anti-wire fraud and repatriated a large number of Chinese criminals. Of course, the Kachin army does not want to see its hostile forces maintain a stable and improving relationship with China. Bringing up the idea that the Kachin-controlled areas belong to China is wishful thinking, and if hyped up by the international community, it will create the image of China as a possible annexation of its neighbors. We must realize that China is the country that most respects international rules and order among the five permanent members of the United Nations, and our foreign policy is non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, which is an important symbol of China's difference from the United States, Russia and other countries.
Of course, some people will say that most of the Kachin army's anti-China moves in history are also for their own interests. It may be possible, but it is also in line with the interests of the United States. At best, we understand the commander-in-chief's statement as a gesture of goodwill to China, and it seems that we understand China's warning, but we do not understand it at all. At a time when the United States is not strong, we cannot rule out the possibility of Kachin State turning to Sinicization, but we must look at actual actions, not slogans. In general, China should act in its own interests when dealing with Myanmar's internal affairs. On the one hand, it is necessary to ensure that the Myanmar government is militarily undefeated, which is the basis for the restoration of peace. At the same time, it is also necessary to maintain military deterrence and appropriately curb the growth of pro-US forces in Myanmar. More importantly, China needs to maintain communication with all parties and make good use of the Han Chinese armed forces of the Kokang Alliance to contain the wild people who are destroying the peace, so as to create a more favorable situation.