Daily Telegraph article by Paul Nuki, April 15
Iran's direct attack on Israel late Saturday night was a high-risk gamble at its worst.
The attack itself had been sent in detail in advance, and despite the large number of projectiles involved, it was a rush. It would seem that this is not a country that is going to wage a full-scale war, or at least not yet.
If Tehran really wants to inflict huge losses on its old enemy, then there will be no warning, and its proxies and Allah in the region will receive an order to launch a blitzkrieg from Lebanon at the same time.
This terrorist group makes Hamas look like a small fish, and it is said that more than 100,000 missiles are aimed at Israel, a large portion of which are precision-guided missiles.
Rather, Iran is sending a message that enough is enough, and Iran will no longer allow its respected members of its Revolutionary Guards to be killed without direct retaliation.
The scale of the attack, which involved more than 300 drones and missiles, also made it clear to Israel that it needed to rely on the support of the United States and other Western countries for protection. Israel's Iron Dome air defense system, while good, still seems vulnerable.
Iran's attack also poses a conundrum for the West: is it better to risk a full-scale war in the region, or is it better to contain Israel?
Finally, Iran is showing its own people that it is not powerless in the face of Israeli aggression. This is important for a regime that is struggling to maintain its domestic legitimacy in the face of a severe economic recession and growing civil strife.
The mullahs hope that the drone swarm will be enough to show its might without triggering a terrible counterattack on Iran itself.
However, it will not be easy to prevent the escalation of the war and the start of a full-scale war.
Iran's mission to the United Nations said on Sunday that the attack was a legitimate act of self-defense under the UN Charter and that "the matter can be considered closed."
On the other hand, Israel has characterized Iran's actions as a "major escalation" and Israel has reportedly informed the United States and other countries in the Middle East that it will have to respond.
There is no doubt that Western countries will try to prevent a counterattack, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not an easily beholder.
Like Iran's leader, his position at home is precarious, and if he fails to respond, he risks being ousted by the religious fanatics on whom his coalition government depends.
It sounds like the Americans will certainly try their best to prevent the escalation of the conflict.
Almost as the Israeli skies fell silent on Sunday morning, US President Joe Biden said he would seek a diplomatic solution.
He said he would "coordinate a coherent diplomatic response to Iran's outrageous attacks," while warning Iran that the United States is "vigilant for all threats in the region."
This message was quickly echoed by London, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said to be "interested in de-escalating the crisis".
"All our current efforts are aimed at de-escalating the situation". Asked about the government's position, Health Secretary Victoria Atkins said: "We don't want miscalculations or escalations because we know it's going to take a cost".
The same message was sent by different countries such as Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, France, and the United Arab Emirates.
Russia, which has close ties to Iran, urged Iran to exercise restraint and expressed "extreme concern about yet another dangerous escalation in the region".
China added: "The conflict must end immediately. China calls on the international community, especially influential countries, to play a constructive role for peace and stability in the region."
These are not empty words. Diplomats around the world can see the risks. If a full-scale war breaks out between Israel and Iran, it will almost certainly drag much of the rest of the world into the water, with devastating consequences.
But will Mr. Netanyahu and the IDF be able to restrain themselves?
The Iranian military is already luring them, with the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claiming on Sunday that the Iranian attack was "more successful than expected".
He also claimed that the attack was "deliberately limited and commensurate with the scale of aggression shown by the Zionist regime".
Israel is also posturing.
A senior Israeli intelligence agent told The Telegraph that the Iranian operation was a major setback for Tehran.
"They didn't expect a coalition of British, French, American and Jordanians to come against them, intercept missiles," he said. This is a major strategic blow to the Iranians and a setback for the Iranian axis".
If there is any hope, it is that the large number of projectiles fired by Iran on Saturday were shot down by Western military assets rather than the IDF.
Experts say this should give Biden and other Western leaders real influence over Israel.
Israeli intelligence officers told The Telegraph: "It will come at a price. From now on, the Americans will dictate everything to us in this region, and personally, I fear that the US government will prevent the war".
Many hope that he is right, even though they have very different views on the ongoing conflict in Gaza.