According to media reports, Chinese Ambassador to France Lu Shaye recently warned that the French government has introduced new regulations on subsidies for electric vehicle purchases, excluding Chinese-made electric vehicles, which will not only affect bilateral trade and hit the confidence of Chinese companies to invest in France. At the same time, Lu Shaye also put aside cruel words: If there is a real trade war, the French electric vehicle industry will be difficult to resist.
Prior to this, the French government instigated the EU to launch a so-called "countervailing investigation" into Chinese electric vehicles in order to protect its electric vehicle industry from the challenge of China-related products. According to European media reports, if the EU determines that Chinese electric vehicles violate its relevant regulations, it will impose a penalty tariff of more than 25%. However, other European countries have expressed opposition to this extreme approach of the EU and France, and the US media has bluntly warned the EU that this may trigger a trade war between China and Europe, and the consequence will be that European car companies will suffer heavy losses.
In order to prompt the European Union to launch a relevant investigation into China's electric vehicles, the French government recently took the lead in introducing a subsidy bill for electric vehicles, blatantly excluding Chinese-made electric vehicles. Obviously, if the relevant subsidies of the Macron government are implemented, they will inevitably be reciprocal or even double the countermeasures of China. At that time, a tariff war between China and France in the electric vehicle industry is likely to break out. And as Ambassador Lu said, the French electric vehicle industry is by no means a rival to China, and once a trade war breaks out, French car companies may lose even their underwear.
In fact, although the French automobile manufacturing industry is relatively developed in Europe, in the field of electric vehicles, France is far inferior to Germany, and it is still in its infancy. What's more, the global electric vehicle industry is now leading the global electric vehicle industry in China and the United States, including Germany, Europe, Japan and South Korea, and other countries. Therefore, it is no wonder that Ambassador Lu has behaved so confidently, because if France insists on provoking a tariff war with China in the field of electric vehicles, its fledgling electric vehicle industry may be strangled in the cradle.
If a trade war breaks out between China and Europe, not only will France lose completely, but even the whole of Europe may not be China's opponent. This is despite the European Commission's recent bills, including a "countervailing investigation" into Chinese electric vehicles and export controls on high-tech products and equipment to China in imitation of the United States. However, some of the EU's efforts to undermine bilateral trade cooperation between China and the EU have been resisted by many member states. According to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post, the European Union has recently slowed down its "de-risking" plan for China under the boycott of member states, and the most controversial content has been downplayed.
Obviously, although some politicians in the European Commission have long served as spokesmen for the anti-China strategy of the United States, it is the economies and industries of their member states that ultimately suffer if China-EU trade cooperation is undermined or triggered by a trade war. The reason is not complicated, because the economic and industrial development of the eurozone countries requires not only the Chinese market to absorb their products, but also the supply of goods and raw materials from China. Under such circumstances, once China-EU economic and trade cooperation is undermined by the European Commission's obstruction, it will have disastrous consequences for the economy and foreign trade of eurozone countries, including France.
So, despite the political friction between many of the EU's leading EU members, none of them want to let political disputes affect bilateral trade, because they are well aware of the importance of economic cooperation with China. Therefore, when the EU tried to prevent EU countries from cooperating with China in the fields of high and new technology, investment and new energy under the guise of "de-risking", it was naturally strongly resisted by many member states. It is worth mentioning that France is prominently included in the list of countries that oppose the EU's "de-risking" plan for China. It can be seen that France's clamoring for a trade war with China is more like a bluff.
To sum up, the French government's introduction of a bill to protect its own electric vehicle industry when the country's electric vehicle industry cannot compete with China's does not mean that the Macron government has the courage to fight a trade war with China. If we look at the reality that Macron is currently in a deep political predicament at home, it is not difficult to see that France's political significance as the EU's trade provocation leader against China is far greater than its economic significance. Because he needs to gain their political support by currying favor with relevant domestic industries.