In 2024, the sales volume of new energy will exceed 10 million, and the catfish has changed from Tesla to Huawei?

In 2024, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will exceed 10 million, and most new energy vehicle companies have given sales targets for this year, and we have counted 11 car companies, with a total target of 4.28 million. Coupled with BYD's sales target of about 4 million this year, as speculated by some institutions, and other brands that have not been counted, if the sales of new energy vehicles this year go as planned, it is a sure thing to break through 10 million.

At the beginning of 2023, experts predicted that the annual sales of new energy passenger vehicles would be around 8.5 million to 9 million, but the wholesale number of 8.86 million announced by the Passenger Car Association at the end of the year was really predicted by experts. This year, experts predict that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 13 million, and originally saw the sales estimates of various car companies this year, and there is a radical feeling, combined with the estimates of experts, it seems that the car companies are still conservative.

Who to see in 2024, in addition to BYD, is still the four "Wei Xiaoli Wen" that are the most noteworthy. In addition, although Aion set this year's target at 800,000 after completing the annual sales of 480,000 last year, as long as it does not get rid of the "online car-hailing" attribute for a day, such sales have a lot of moisture. Leapmotor completed sales of less than 150,000 last year, and this year set the sales target to a maximum of 400,000, which seems to be sure that there is room for continuous increase in range-extender affordable cars. After completing 137,000 sales last year, Deep Blue has set a target of 450,000 this year, which seems to be the same idea as Zerorun.

The reality is that in the face of the news of the upcoming launch of Tesla's affordable cars, as well as the pursuit of popular models such as the BMW 5 Series, which have opened the same price of gasoline and electricity, new energy vehicle companies will see if the sales target they have set in the New Year can still be so calm, and the market will respond in a few months.

Ideals, the world is positive and rigid

The ideal target is 800,000 units, the Wenjie target is 600,000 units, Xpeng 280,000 units, and NIO 230,000 units. The goals of each company reflect the current market trend, and the new forces selling pure electric vehicles are not very good, and the new forces with oil are still increasing.

After all, the market share of new cars last year was still above 60%, and 30% of the remaining 30 percent of new energy vehicles were PHEV models. It can also be seen from the sales trend chart of new energy models compiled by the Passenger Association that the performance of PHEV models in the overall new energy market is very stable, with a slight increase trend, which also sets the tone for this year's new energy market.

The current market performance, ideal is the highest overcompletion rate of new energy vehicle companies, no one, 376,000 new car delivery, as well as the expected ideal L6, MEGA and other models, as well as follow-up pure electric models have also been planned, coupled with the steady increase in production capacity, so that the ideal has the confidence, this year to hit 800,000, that is, the monthly sales must reach 67,000.

However, after making every effort to complete the milestone of 50,000 delivery months in December last year, the ideal in January this year will not be able to replicate the results of last month, as of the third week of January, the ideal has completed the delivery of 18,700 new cars, and the delivery volume in January can exceed 25,000, which is already a good result. Now it depends on whether the ideal in January can recover the "lost" sales in the promotion mode after the year.

The first test is the production capacity. The Changzhou plant completed the expansion in October last year, and optimized the parts production capacity, the current production capacity of the Beijing plant of 100,000, the future or will be put into the production of pure electric models, Chongqing 430 million land to wait, so how to expand the production capacity to 67,000 vehicles per week, is the first problem faced.

The second is user increment. Previously, Ideal shouted that it was mainly in the first-line luxury market, and Ideal did make a name for itself in the 300,000 to 500,000 market. But the reality is that instead of achieving its ideals, BBA has achieved sales growth last year. Cadillac and Lexus will both decline in sales in China in 2023, but the decline is not large, both have completed sales of more than 180,000 units, Volvo has completed 170,000 sales, and achieved year-on-year growth, Infiniti and other second-tier luxury can be ignored for a long time.

From this point of view, the ideal has been playing with the market gap, but how big is the market gap, how big is the more than 300,000 automobile consumer groups in China, and whether it can support the ideal increment. At least for now, judging from a series of price cuts, as well as the current performance in January, there is room for such an increase, but it is very small, and it should be noted that it used to be an ideal family playing, and since the end of last year, the pattern has changed.

This variable is Huawei, whose sales in the first week of January this year amazed everyone, overpowering the ideal to become the new new power boss. However, this trend lasted only a week, and it was overtaken by ideals.

The confidence of the question lies in the fact that the production capacity layout, vehicle upgrades and cost control are all faster than the ideal action. At present, the three major factories of Wenjie can ensure that there is nearly one million vehicle production capacity per year, although with the current sales growth rate of Huawei, there is a problem of overcapacity, but Huawei has expanded sales channels, as well as the new M7 and M5 effect, it is very likely that Wenjie will replicate the ideal sales growth rate this year, and it will be an ideal sales space.

In other words, the ideal is most afraid of asking the world, not that the world will snatch the sales space of the luxury brand that the ideal wants to grab, but that the world will directly grab the market blank space that the ideal has laid before.

The sales target of 600,000 is an average of 50,000 per month, judging from the current trend of the world, the weekly sales trend of the world in January is also rising, and the ideal is different, not surprisingly, the sales volume of the world in January will continue to grow month-on-month, coupled with the production capacity of "horror" and the remaining Dading in hand, it is expected that the world will continue to advance all the way after the year.

Overall, it is difficult to achieve a win-win situation in the relationship between the ideal and the question world this year, and it should be a trend of eliminating one and the other, unless there is a situation, the two continue to reduce the price, down to 200,000 or even break through the price range of 200,000, in order to achieve a win-win situation. However, judging from the current profit situation of the two companies, even if the ideal profit margin is considerable, the above phenomenon will basically not appear, and in 2024, it will not be far from Weimar and Aiways if you don't make money from selling cars. 800,000 and 600,000, see who can grab whom.

Does the turnaround of NIO Xpeng help sell cars?

The turnaround of NIO, the battery swap alliance. Xiaopeng's turnaround, the public entered. It's 2024, how much can it help the two families?

Brand tonality and market, Li Bin chose the latter, after all, he needs to save face and ensure that he can make a comeback by surviving. NIO's sales target for 2024 is set at 230,000, which is 20,000 lower than in 2023.

In this way, the estimated target of 230,000 is the rational performance of Wei's self-cognition, and it is also a recognition of the fierce competition in the market in 2024. Therefore, from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, NIO has made efforts in battery swap cooperation, or wants to find new growth points in another way. In other words, before regaining market competitiveness, NIO, which has suffered the most serious losses, needs to find a balance point to turn around, otherwise the loss of 100,000 yuan from selling a car will drag down NIO sooner or later.

Xpeng is facing a different situation, and it seems to be relatively better. After Volkswagen enters the market, Volkswagen is expected to jointly develop two new cars with Xpeng this year, Xpeng can provide intelligent driving technology for Volkswagen, and Volkswagen can pass on the experience of car manufacturing to Xpeng, which is also something that is generally lacking in new power car companies.

Volkswagen's recognition seems to be a talisman for Xpeng, but it is trapped in debt problems, as well as the serious problem of homogenization of product attributes in the mid-range pure electric market, how much cost does Xpeng have to play product differentiation, including price, product performance differentiation, etc., this is where Volkswagen can't help Xpeng.

Unlike Ideal Wenjie, NIO Xpeng faces more market competitors, and the main direction is also different. Especially after Tesla's financial report released in the past two days, as well as follow-up plans, NIO Xpeng should be even more difficult. At that time, NIO Xiaopeng will face the possibility of Tesla's continuous price cuts, and will be hit hard by the news of Tesla's possible arrival of FSD and affordable cars, one focuses on high-value products, and the other focuses on intelligent driving, and the advantages of the two will be more difficult to survive by Tesla and brands such as Zeekr, VOYANT, and AVATR with rising trends.

Therefore, in 2023, the problems encountered by Weilai Xiaopeng such as involution, profitability, and renewal will continue in 2024. Even if both companies set relatively rational sales targets, there is no possibility of achieving them.

Summary:

This year, the new energy market will continue to expand, as for whether it can reach 13 million, at present, it is unrealistic to rely on new forces and BYD and other car companies to achieve large-scale increments, perhaps experts value traditional Chinese brands and foreign brands can make efforts in the new energy market. Competition is bound to be fierce, China's auto market has exceeded 30 million, but the overall market wants to continue to expand, it is not easy. In other words, the cake is so big, fuel vehicles continue to be promoted, defend the last territory, or Tesla's new round of involution, or the fight between new energy brands, in fact, it will be more difficult for any company to complete a significant increase in 2024 than in 2023. What's more, the knockout round has begun, and there is still no market increment, or no profit growth point, you can go to Weimar to report.