Guide
In the face of the world turmoil caused by the downward shock of US hegemony, in order to achieve "safe development", Japan has focused on improving its "strategic indispensability" in the global industrial structure, ensuring the supply of important resources, and actively participating in the formulation of regional and international rules. However, Japan's strategic choices are overly reliant on conservative thinking, which has led to the stagnation of regional cooperation and undermined the foundations of its own, regional, and global security development.
Liu Yun is executive director of the Communication Center at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations
Japan's security development is highly dependent on globalization. In recent years, in the face of the world turmoil caused by the downward shock of US hegemony, Japan's strategic choices have relied excessively on conservative thinking, undermining the foundation of its own and regional and global security development. Eventually, Japan will return to true freedom and openness based on Asia and the East.
Japan has taken a number of measures to achieve global security and development, focusing on the establishment of three powers. The first is industrial power, that is, emphasizing the national strategy of economic service and strictly controlling the key elements and links of the industrial chain and supply chain. Its purpose is to establish Japan's "strategic indispensability" in the global industrial structure, maintain and cultivate its core competitiveness, and find and polish new indispensable areas, and its core is to carry out global industrial layout based on the Japan-US alliance.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has repeatedly talked about strengthening Japan-US "economic version 2+2" cooperation and building a "free, fair and open" economic order. The essence of a series of operations is to build a global industrial layout led by the alliance and reduce dependence on China. For example, we will actively guide Japanese companies in the semiconductor, parts, and industrial raw materials industries to invest in ASEAN, and encourage Japanese companies in China to move to ASEAN. In 2022, the Japanese government subsidized 17 Japanese companies in two rounds of "overseas supply chain diversification support", revealing its means of controlling the layout of overseas industries.
Image source: Visual China
The second is resource power, that is, to overcome its own shortcomings through reserves, finding alternatives, strengthening supply capacity, and enhancing cooperation with allies. The Japanese government proposed that the economic and financial operation should be reformed with the goal of ensuring the supply of important materials such as minerals and medicines, and strengthen fiscal and financial support, and said that this move can not only reduce the "asymmetric dependence" on other countries, but also improve the level of local technology and increase residents' employment and income. In terms of energy, we will promote the resumption of nuclear power and the flexible use of renewable energy to improve energy self-sufficiency. In terms of grain, we will encourage domestic feed, wheat, starch, timber and other products to increase production, and promote the domestic substitution of raw materials.
The third is rule-based power, which is to promote rules-based trade agreements based on the Japan-US alliance, and to incorporate its own "ideals" into international rule-making through active participation in global and regional governance. For example, it advocates the "Trustworthy Free Flow" (DFFT) digital trade rules, proposes green transformation, advocates green industry rules, and proposes high-quality infrastructure construction goals. During the Abe administration, Japan successively introduced concepts such as "high-quality infrastructure partnership" and "high-quality infrastructure investment principles". Kishida also believes that only by mastering the power to formulate global infrastructure rules can Japanese companies reverse the declining trend in competitiveness and expand their global market share.
The convergence of conservatism between Japan and the United States and the excessive pursuit of conservative values have led to the stagnation of regional cooperation and the accumulation of trust deficits, and the result will only be that the more emphasis is placed on "security", the less secure it is, and the more "decoupling and disconnection" it is, the less development will be, and eventually it will become one of the important factors restricting the stability and prosperity of Asia. The core of the "intersection of the two oceans" and the "Indo-Pacific strategy" proposed by Abe is freedom and openness, but Japan has not truly achieved "openness and inclusiveness". Looking at the world, the international situation is chaotic and intertwined, risks and challenges are emerging one after another, the Ukraine crisis is not over, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has resumed, and a peaceful and stable environment has become a scarce commodity for the national security and development of some regions and some regions. Peace and stability in the Asian region are precious and must be cared for.
Image source: China Daily
The economic interdependence of China and Japan, the horizontal and vertical deepening of industrial and supply chains, and the interweaving of production networks in Asia, constitute the value axis of the safe development of countries in the region. From 2000 to 2022, the Asian economic circle accounted for 33.1% of the global economy, up from 26.8%, making it Japan's most important trading region (50.3%), and China surpassed the United States to become Japan's largest trading partner in 2007. Leaving the Chinese market, Japan's semiconductor industry is facing a "lose-lose" in technology and market. China is Japan's most important market for semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Japan's exports of semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022 will be 26.6 trillion yen, accounting for 27.3% of Japan's total exports of semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Moreover, Japan's restriction of China in the field of semiconductors will not achieve its goal of preventing China's technological upgrading. With the acceleration of China's independent R&D, Japan will not only greatly reduce the effect of export controls, but also lose the key advantages of the industrial chain and supply chain. A more reasonable approach would be to "strengthen technology research and development→ produce more high-tech products→ increase exports to China→ strengthen economic ties between the two countries", so as to achieve a win-win situation.
Japan's security and development are inseparable from China's market and technology, and deepening cooperation with China is an important prerequisite for Japan to realize its industrial, resource, and regulatory powers. Should we want a "Japan that conforms to order" or "a Japan that conforms to Japan's order"? This is an important question for Japan to ponder.
China and Japan should look at each other's development objectively and rationally, establish a positive and friendly mutual understanding, constructively manage contradictions and differences, abandon the thinking of economic security, look at the world, Asia, China and Japan more from the perspective of development, think about the relationship between development and security, and realize that the complex diversity of regional production networks is not a simple supply chain issue. The two countries should build a cultural foundation for the great development of regional productive forces and production relations, reflect on how to find their own place at the crossroads of history, find a common understanding of the East, and explore and reshape regional values.
Image source: China Daily
This article was originally published in the international edition of China Daily
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