China's economy will grow by 5.2% in 2023!
There is no need to predict and analyze anymore, the National Bureau of Statistics has officially unveiled the economic report card for 2023 - the gross domestic product (GDP) jointly created by the whole society has increased to 1260582 billion yuan, excluding the factors of changes in the prices of goods and services, and achieved a real growth of 5.2%.
On a quarterly basis, China's economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023, the lowest point of the year, and in the second quarter, driven by a low base effect in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate rose to 6.3%, the highest point of the year.
In the third quarter, the real growth rate of the mainland economy slowed down to 4.9 percent, and expanded slightly to 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter, showing an overall "N-shape". The economic development of the whole year is facing great difficulties, and the internal and external recovery momentum is relatively weak, and the pressure on economic development in 2024 is still not small.
The public report also shows that the country's total grain output was 695.41 million tons, an increase of 8.88 million tons or 1.3 percent over the previous year; the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.6 percent, the added value of the service industry increased by 5.8 percent, and the total retail sales of consumer goods 471495 100 million yuan, up 7.2 percent.
The national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 503036 billion yuan, up by 3.0 percent, the total import and export of goods was 417568 billion yuan, up by 0.2 percent over the previous year, and the consumer price (CPI) rose by 0.2 percent, but the purchase prices of industrial producers fell by 3.6 percent......
In dollar terms, the mainland's GDP fell to 17.89 trillion
In 2023, although the mainland CPI has achieved a slight growth of 0.2%, the PPI has decreased by 3.6%, and it is still deflationary throughout the year and nationwide. The contribution effect of prices to nominal GDP has changed from a boost in previous years to a disincentive - GDP has just exceeded 126 trillion yuan.
Compared with the final confirmed GDP of the previous year, it only increased by 5 trillion yuan, which was slightly lower than Nansheng's expectations. Then there is the RMB exchange rate, which depreciated significantly at the beginning of the year, and although it recovered at the end of the year, it still depreciated by 4.55% compared with the US dollar in 2023.
Under the influence of deflation and the double weakness of the RMB exchange rate, the mainland's GDP in 2023 will fall to 17.89 trillion yuan in US dollar terms, a decrease of about 100 billion US dollars compared with 2022.
Looking ahead to this year (2024), China's economy is still expected to achieve a real growth of about 5%, and investment and consumption will pick up steadily. Prices are expected to enter a moderate upward channel, and the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar is also expected to enter the level of 6.8 to 7 in the second half of the year.
Compared with 2023, China's economic development this year will have more positive factors, economic and trade development with non-US and European countries will continue to accelerate and strengthen, and China's bilateral trade volume with Russia will continue to hit a new high. Nansheng predicts that China's economy will likely achieve a breakthrough of 19 trillion US dollars in 2024.
In 2023, the GDP gap between China and the United States will further widen
For many years, the pace of China's economic development has been higher than that of the United States, and the gap between the economic scale of China and the United States has gradually narrowed. However, it is a pity that the overall dollar will be strong in 2023, and the inflation level in the United States will be high, so the US GDP will reach new heights.
Nansheng predicts that the real growth of the U.S. economy in 2023 will be about 2.5%, and the GDP will skyrocket to $27.36 trillion. China's economy is expected to fall to 65.4 percent of the United States, a widening gap from the previous two years, when it accounted for more than 70 percent.
The above is all explained from the negative side, but the exchange rate always fluctuates, and it is weak in a few years, and it will become strong in those years. In the past two years, the "losses caused by the depreciation of the exchange rate will be made up in the coming year" -- the losses caused by the decline in the exchange rate are not losses in the real sense.
As long as the pace of China's industrial transformation and upgrading is not interrupted, as long as the mainland remains stable, no major accidents occur, and the pace of economic recovery is not interrupted, then China's GDP will certainly catch up with and surpass that of the United States, and this is only a matter of time. This article is organized and written by Nansheng, please do not reprint or plagiarize without authorization!