Egypt and Ethiopia failed in negotiations, a dam that would decide the fate of East Africa and the lifeblood of Egypt
At the end of 2023, negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia over the revival of the dam officially began
Ethiopian Revival Dam
Ethiopia's prime minister believes that neither side will be at a disadvantage, and that the revival of the dam hydropower plant will bring many benefits, and the agreement was originally planned to be signed at the end of the year. On December 20, 2023, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's office announced that the fourth round of negotiations between the two sides had failed.
Schematic diagram of the Fuxing Dam
The main reason for the failure of the negotiations was that the outcome was unfavorable for Egypt, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi did not support the signing of a peace agreement between the two sides now. The outcome of this negotiation is related to the large-scale civil war in the African country of Sudan.
Dam location
The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is located on the Blue Nile River, designed and built in 2011, with a total cost of 5 billion US dollars, with the goal of solving Ethiopia's power generation capacity, which can export power resources to Ethiopia's neighboring countries after completion, greatly alleviating Ethiopia's financial pressure, the dam has twice the storage capacity of the Three Gorges Dam on the mainland, so the Ethiopian government has high hopes for the dam project, which is regarded as the future of Ethiopia's money printing machine. Ethiopia has a population of 170 million and only 17% of it has access to electricity, and now Egypt and Ethiopia join the BRICS, and the two countries have a dispute over the Blue Nile dam, which threatens Egypt's national security and could even become a nightmare for Egypt's future.
The reason is that the Blue Nile is the main upstream body of the Nile in Egypt, and the Nile is known as the river of life in Egypt and gave birth to Egyptian civilization. Since ancient times, the only source of freshwater for Sudan and Egypt has come from the Blue Nile, so it is understandable that Egypt sees the Fuxing Dam as a threat to Cairo.
The completion of the dam is not only a clean energy project, but also a very dangerous weapon, giving Ethiopia a threatening bargaining power in negotiations with Sudan and Egypt. Because Ethiopia has the ability to control the flow of the Nile waters, it is unacceptable for Egypt and even Egypt and Sudan to be threatened by Ethiopia during floods and droughts.
In 2011, the governments of Sudan and Egypt actively opposed the dam, and in 2013 the conflict escalated, with Egypt refusing to reduce the dam.
Now that Sudan is in a civil war, Egypt supports the Sudanese government army, and now the Sudanese government army is at a disadvantage, Egypt is in a disadvantaged position, because of the Red Sea Houthi attack on the trading fleet, many shipping companies no longer pass through the Suez Canal, Egypt's fiscal revenue is reduced.
It is now very beneficial for Ethiopia, which supports the Rapid Reaction Forces (Sudanese rebels) in Sudan. The leader of Sudan's Rapid Reaction Force, Dagalo, also visited Ethiopia last week for talks with the Ethiopian Prime Minister.
Leader of the Sudanese Rapid Reaction Force
The Ethiopian government's $1 billion international debt is coming due, and without the IMF loan assistance until March 31 this year, Ethiopia's debt will be suspended until 2025, which is very serious. At the same time, there are natural disasters in the south and north of Ethiopia, and Ethiopia has just joined the BRICS and will inevitably seek assistance from the BRICS countries, but the United States will take advantage of the feud between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, which are friendly countries with Russia and the mainland, and Russia and the mainland do not want these three countries to let the United States have a chance in the region because of the revival of the dam.
Three Kingdoms Geographical Location
The mercenaries supported by the United States have entered the territory of Sudan, and you may not know that there are currently Russian Wagner mercenaries in Sudan and the mercenaries of the former Ukrainian Azov Battalion, and the two sides have started a struggle in Africa, because the Azov Battalion and Wagner have been fighting in Ukraine for a long time, and the Azov Battalion knows more about the skills of Wagner street fighting. Some members of the Azov Battalion were invited by Western countries to Africa at a high price to do street fighting guidance and training to combat the influence of Russian Wagner in Africa.
According to the current situation in East Africa, the United States is already taking advantage of the contradictions between Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt to influence cooperation with Russia and China in the region, so as to achieve the goal of influencing the BRICS countries.
I'm Qian Miao, thanks for subscribing and communicating