On January 1, 2024 local time, Ethiopia and Somaliland in eastern Africa signed a memorandum of understanding in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, to obtain the 50-year right to operate the "20-kilometer sea outlet" from Somaliland, and at the same time will recognize Somaliland's independence. The international community generally believes that Somaliland is part of Somali territory and that Ethiopia may be the first country to recognize Somaliland's independence. The Somali government announced the recall of its ambassador to Ethiopia on the 2nd.
Territory is a term that came into existence after the emergence of the concept of sovereignty in modern times. With the concept of sovereignty, territorial sovereignty has become a fundamental right that a country must fight for. In ancient times, there were very few examples of buying and exchanging land, but in modern times, there are fewer and fewer examples of buying and trading territory. In 1867, the U.S. government made a bold move by purchasing about 1,518,800 square kilometers of Alaska and the surrounding Aleutian Islands from the Russian government for $7.2 million (about 2 cents per acre). Despite initial skepticism and ridicule, buying Alaska proved to be a wise investment, as the state is rich in natural resources, including oil, gold, and more, which today are worth well over $500 billion.
Ethiopia's port dream
Since ancient times, our ancestors have lived and multiplied on the African continent. At the beginning of the Common Era, Ethiopia established the Kingdom of Axum (c. 100-940), an important empire in African history. At its height, the Kingdom of Axum occupied the entire northeastern corner of Africa and the southern Arabian Peninsula.
Aksum's power and prosperity gradually aroused the jealousy of the Sassanid Persian Empire, the overlord of the Middle East, and in 570-578 it sent troops to invade Yemen on the northern shore of the Red Sea and claim it as its own. The defeat in the battle for Yemen was a deep blow to Aksum, but before it could recover, it was attacked by the Arabs. In the 7th century, the Arab Empire gradually rose to control the peninsula. At this point, the Arab Empire replaced Axum and monopolized the trade route from India to the Mediterranean. In the 8th century, the coastal ports of the Kingdom of Axum were swallowed up by yellow sand, and the center of power gradually moved south from the coast to the Ethiopian plateau. In the 10th century, the Axum Empire fell.
Despite the many changes of government in Ethiopia, successive monarchs have not relinquished their control over the Red Sea region. When the Suez Canal was opened in 1869, Ethiopia, which is located between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, and echoes the Suez Canal in the northwest, has a more important strategic position and is coveted by Italy, a large country in southern Europe. In 1889, Italy invaded Ethiopia and got its last share here, forcing Ethiopia to sign the Treaty of Usial, recognizing Italy's rule over the occupied territories of Assab, Massawa, Karen, and Asmara, and later merging them into a unified colony named "Eritrea", which means Red Sea coast.
During World War II, Italy briefly occupied Ethiopia (1936-1941) using Eritrea as a springboard, but was eventually defeated by British and American forces, and in 1936 the exiled Emperor Haile Selassie returned to the throne. Ethiopia wanted to reoccupy Eritrea and have access to the sea, changing the plight of its landlocked country while improving its position in Africa. Since the Emperor of Ethiopia was reinstated with the help of the Allies, Ethiopia turned to Britain and the United States politically. The United States began to vigorously support Egypt, building military bases, providing economic aid, hoping to support Ethiopia as an American proxy in Africa (how good relations were between Egypt and the United States at that time, Ethiopia sent troops to the Korean Peninsula to join the United Nations coalition).
In 1950, Eritrea accepted a United Nations resolution and formed a federal government with Ethiopia, which was highly self-governing and allowed to retain its own constitution, parliament and self-government. Emperor Haile Selassie I was not content to exist as a "state within a state", and in 1962 he manipulated parliament to forcibly revoke Eritrea's autonomy and declare it a province of Ethiopia.
The promised autonomy was revoked, and the Eritreans formed the Popular Liberation Front of Eritrea (EHRLF) to wage an armed struggle against Ethiopian rule and independence. After the overthrow of Haile Selassie I and the dictator Mengustu came to power (1974-1991), the EHL formed an alliance with the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) in the struggle to overthrow the dictatorship.
Before forming an alliance with the EGR, the EGRF had reached an agreement with the latter that would allow the new government to return to a high degree of autonomy and even independence, once the new government was formed. In April 1993, a referendum was held in Ecuador, which resulted in an overwhelming majority of the population in favour of independence. On 24 May, Ecuador declared its independence, which was recognized and respected by the Egyptian government. As a result, Egypt once again lost its access to the sea and became a landlocked country without an inch of coastline. However, at the beginning of its independence, Eritrea had a relatively close relationship with Egypt, allowing it to use the Eritrean port of Assab as a sea route.
The dispute has escalated as the two sides have been unable to agree on issues such as port service fees. In May 1998, a number of factors led to a conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea in the border Badme region, triggering a two-year full-scale border war that killed between 700,000 and 100,000 people on both sides. After the two countries became hostile, Eritrea refused to use the country's port of Assab, and Egypt had to use the ports of neighboring Djibouti and Somalia to access the sea (Eritrea did not reopen the port to Ethiopia until 2018).
Eritrea has not become richer as a result of its independence, and its production structure is still backward, and it cannot be self-sufficient in food even in a good year, let alone a disaster year. Ethiopia is also considered one of the least developed countries with a perfect sea economy, low commercial transport capacity, and difficult economic development. In order to get rid of its economic difficulties and inland disadvantages, Ethiopia, with the assistance of China, built the Jakarta-Djibouti Railway directly to Djibouti Haikou.
There is no fun in shipping, land transportation is underdeveloped, and Ethiopia vigorously develops the civil aviation industry, which has unexpectedly become the boss of Africa. Ethiopian Airlines has a fleet of more than 100 aircraft, of which 70% are heavy aircraft, including A350, 787 and 777, etc., both passenger and cargo. This time, Ethiopia sold shares in Ethiopian Airlines and Ethiopian Telecom in exchange for the 50-year right to operate the "20-kilometer outlet to the sea" in Somaliland.
Somaliland is not a country, located in north-western Somalia, which declared independence in May 1991 but has not been recognized by the international community and has not yet been recognized by any country. Somaliland is barren and unable to feed a large population. However, due to the relative peace, many Somali refugees aspire to this place, and it is now considered "thriving".
There is a coastal city of Berbera in Somaliland, more than 200 kilometers from Djibouti and the Red Sea, funded by DP World, with an annual throughput of 500,000 TEUs. Berbera also has a military base, which is also very promising if it can be used for civil aviation after expansion! In addition, the Hargeisa Airport (HGA), the "capital" of Somaliland, also has Ethiopian Airlines planes taking off and landing every day. If the Red Sea route continues to be disrupted by the Houthis, Ethiopia harvests airports and ports in Somaliland, transshipment goods avoid the Red Sea, maybe perhaps... Not worse than the Suez Canal?
The Somali side has not indicated at this time that it will use any military means. At the time of the 1988 Somali civil strife, which itself was a consequence of its failed invasion of Ethiopia in the 1970s, Somalia signed an agreement with Ethiopia in which Ethiopia agreed to cease its support for regional separatist forces in Somaliland and Somalia agreed to cease its support for ethnic Somali separatist forces in eastern Ethiopia.
In times of peace, the problem of access to the sea can be temporarily solved by exchanging land. During the war years, the basic means of solving problems was war. It is a bit naïve for divided Somalia to count on Ethiopia to take the initiative to eat meat and spit out bones. Therefore, development is the last word!