Semi-solid-state batteries are ready to fly, QS suddenly emerges without negative electrode concept Ghost story or new story?

Finance Associated Press, January 5 (Reporter Li Zijian) Recently, PowerCo confirmed that QuantumScape (hereinafter referred to as "QS") solid-state battery passed the first durability test, which it believes is a milestone on the road to mass production of solid-state batteries. What has attracted more attention from the industry is whether the concept of "no negative electrode" will overturn the original material composition.

For a long time, solid-state batteries have been called the most potential "next-generation power batteries", but the technical path has not been clear, and mass production has not been decided. In contrast, the global demand for solid-state batteries (including semi-solid-state batteries) may exceed 2GWh in 2024 due to the "buying" of various OEMs due to the precedent examples of vehicle installation.

The concept of solid-state batteries without negative electrodes has emerged

PowerCo, a battery subsidiary of Volkswagen Group, disclosed that PowerCo has confirmed through hands-on experiments that QS's anodeless solid-state battery samples can be charged and discharged 1,000 times, and the battery has "almost no aging" when the test is completed, and still maintains 95% capacity (or discharge energy retention rate). Volkswagen Group is one of QS's major investors.

Image source: QS official website

In general, the cell material of solid-state batteries can partially follow the existing lithium battery material system, but the solid-state electrolyte will eliminate the need for electrolyte and eliminate the separator (which is retained in a few options), and the lithium metal anode is considered to be one of the most promising anode materials.

QS's concept of anode-free solid-state batteries has not been significantly discussed in the domestic capital market. However, in academic research, the concept of anode-free solid-state batteries is not new. The team of Professor Wang Zhiyu of the School of Chemical Engineering of Dalian University of Technology and the team of Professor Zhang Qiang of the Department of Chemical Engineering of Tsinghua University have relevant research.

According to an article by FutureBatteryLab, lithium ions migrate from the positive electrode to the other side only during the initial charge, and then the negative electrode is formed in situ by depositing the lithium ions on the current collector. The article further states that it is necessary to introduce an excess of lithium on the positive side so that they can form a negative electrode during charging.

图片来源:FutureBatteryLab

The related research of Professor Wang Zhiyu's team has a similar expression, (its) the graphite anode material is removed from the battery, and the ultra-thin lithium metal is constructed in situ in the battery through the positive electrode lithium release, so as to realize the initial anode-free battery system with "zero lithium excess" design. It is reported that in the preliminary work, the team of Professor Wang Zhiyu and Professor Qiu Jieshan developed a class of high-capacity lithium sulfide cathodes with a lithium content of up to 66.67 at.%.

The reporter of the Financial Associated Press interviewed two semi-solid-state battery companies and related researchers today, but due to peer evaluation or incomplete disclosure of QS related parameters, none of them made an analysis of the technical advancement of QS solid-state battery samples and the concept of no anode.

The reporter of the Financial Associated Press learned from industry insiders that the current progress of solid-state batteries in the laboratory is very fast. In the medium to long term, if solid-state batteries become mainstream, the imagination of separators, traditional graphite anodes and electrolyte materials may be frustrated, even if multiple technologies coexist.

The electrolyte plant is also developing solid-state electrolytes, but some industry insiders told the Financial Associated Press reporter that self-developed solid-state electrolytes are one of the core tasks of semi-/solid-state battery battery factories. Electrolyte plants may have challenges in trying to cut into the solid-state electrolyte of battery factories.

On the other hand, the production of lithium metal anode is generally lithium salt plant, not anode material factory, according to industry estimates, generally speaking, lithium metal anode ternary solid-state battery compared with the existing ternary battery, lithium content is about 1 times higher (because the solid-state battery has not yet been mass-produced, the data is roughly estimated, and changes with technological changes, the increment is mainly lithium metal).

This may mean that QS's anode-free solid-state battery, compared with the general solid-state battery, has not further had a negative impact on the separator, electrolyte and anode material factory.

Semi-solid-state batteries are ready to fly

At the 2023 China Automotive Supply Chain Summit, Xu Xiaoming, general manager of Jiangxi Anchi New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said: "Toyota said that it can mass-produce all-solid-state batteries in 2027, in fact, the Internet has memory, you can search for it, and Toyota will mention 'mass production in about five years' every three years."

The reporter of the Financial Associated Press also noticed that the solid-state battery of QuantumScape was confirmed by PowerCo as a sample A (A-sample test), and if you refer to the commercialization path of a new battery of a domestic battery factory, there will be basic research and development, Pre-A sample, A sample, B sample, C/D sample and mass production process. Among them, sample A proof of concept (1-2 years), sample B design verification (1-2 years), C/D sample process and product verification (1-2 years).

In addition, the mass production of solid-state batteries requires the support of materials, and the reporter of the Financial Associated Press currently has no large-scale production capacity from the perspective of the production capacity layout of domestic material factories. QS's non-negative solid-state battery is another "wolf", and the batch loading of semi-solid-state batteries is already on the way.

Major domestic A-share battery factories are basically engaged in the research and development of semi/solid-state batteries, and Ganfeng Lithium's (semi-)solid-state batteries may be the first batch to be installed in China. In 2022, Ganfeng Lithium disclosed that the company's first-generation solid-state battery has a measured range of more than 400 kilometers on the Dongfeng E70.

According to the reporter of the Financial Associated Press, the price of some 70-kilowatt-hour semi-solid-state batteries is more than 200,000 yuan, however, at present, under the increasing homogeneity of auto parts, including power batteries, new power OEMs hope to use the high performance and high safety of semi-solid-state batteries to tell a "new story" in order to maintain brand tonality or at any cost.

In 2023, many new energy vehicle companies such as NIO, Celis, Changan Deep Blue, and VOYAH will disclose the progress of semi-solid-state battery loading. Feng Xingya, general manager of GAC Group, revealed at the 2023 Guangzhou Auto Show, "Our goal is to achieve all-solid-state battery installation in 2026." ”

According to the report of Everbright Securities, according to estimates, the global penetration rate of semi-solid-state batteries will be about 1% in 2023, and the demand will reach about 8.8GWh, and the CAGR of global solid-state battery demand growth from 2023 to 2030 will be 63.7%. According to the research report of Guosen Securities, the global demand for solid-state batteries (including semi-solid-state batteries) is expected to be 2.3GWh in 2024, with a market space of 1.95 billion yuan.

(Financial Associated Press reporter Li Zijian)