Cheaper than 1664 points!Will A-shares stabilize in 2024?

The following article comes from Oriental Fortune stocks, and the author is spicy Xiaoqiang

In the past 2023, A-shares have experienced a significant correction, but with it, the price-to-earnings ratio or price-to-book ratio of many indices is at a low level in the past decade.

From the perspective of P/E ratio, the latest P/E ratio of the SSE 50 Index is less than 10 times, at 9.33 times. The CSI 300 index is 10.96 times. The CSI 100 Index and the Shanghai Composite Index also have P/E ratios of less than 20 times, at 12.47 times and 12.68 times, respectively.

From the perspective of the P/E ratio, the P/E percentile of the ChiNext index in the past ten years is 1.03%, that is, the current valuation is only more expensive than the trading days of 1.03% in the past ten years, and its latest valuation is 27.85 times. The price-earnings percentiles of the CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, Shenzhen Component Index and SSE 50 Index are all less than 20% in the past ten years, which is also at a relatively low level in the past decade.

Looking at the PB, the SSE 50 index is only 1.06 times, and the CSI 300 index is 1.2 times. The price-to-book percentile of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the CSI 300 Index is only 1.23%, 1.31%, and 2.63% respectively, which is also at an extremely low position in the past decade. In addition, the CSI 1000 Index, ChiNext Index and CSI 500 Index have a price-to-book ratio percentile of less than 10% in the past 10 years.

(Data source: Choice, statistics as of 2023/12/31, no investment recommendation)

01

The global ratio is also very cheap

As far as A-shares are concerned, they are not only very cost-effective compared with their own past, but also very cost-effective compared with other market indexes.

The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is also relatively low, with the Hang Seng Index trading at 8.09 times and its 10-year price-to-earnings percentile of 1.26%, that is, the current valuation is only more expensive than the 1.26% trading day in the past 10 years. In terms of price-to-book ratio, Hong Kong stocks have broken the net as a whole, with the latest PB of the Hang Seng Index at 0.87 times and the price-to-book ratio percentile of 2.32% in the past ten years.

U.S. stocks are even more expensive, with P/E ratios of S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ being 24.12x, 25.53x and 40.46x respectively, with the P/E percentiles of 82%, 85.63% and 77.96% over the past decade, 4.19x, 6.53x and 5.65x respectively, and 88.76%, 85.13% and 86.07% per book over the past decade.

(Data source: Choice, statistics as of 2023/12/31, no investment recommendation)

02

Cheaper than all previous bottoms

If compared with the previous market bottoms, in the eyes of many institutions, the current A-shares are also very cost-effective. Huafu Securities said that the current price-to-book ratio of all A is 1.43 times, which is lower than that in June 2005 (998 points, 1.65 times), October 2008 (1664 points, 2.06 times), June 2013 (1849 points, 1.50 times), March 2020 (2646 points, 1.56 times), The valuation level of the previous market bottom in April 2022 (2863 points, 1.54x) is the same as the lowest point in January 2019 (2440 points, 1.43x).

From the perspective of equity risk premium (ERP), as of December 26, 2023, the yield to maturity of the 10-year treasury bond of China Bond is 2.58%, the price-to-earnings ratio of the all-A index is 16.2 times, and the ERP (price-to-earnings ratio reciprocal minus the risk-free rate) of the all-A index is 3.61%, which is at the 82% quantile level since 2010 (the higher the ERP, the more cost-effective the investment in the stock market compared to the bond market). Under the influence of the recent adjustment of A-shares and the expectation of future interest rate cuts, the current domestic equity assets have a better investment cost performance.

(Image source: Huafu Securities Research Institute, statistics as of 2023/12/26, no investment recommendation)

03

Is a spring offensive expected?

With the obvious decline in the valuation of A-shares, even lower than the previous market bottoms, the spring offensive of 2024 is being mentioned by many people.

Huafu Securities said that the current positive factors are accumulating. On the one hand, the effects of the previous favorable policies will be released one after another, promoting a steady economic recovery and achieving a good start to the new year. On the other hand, various patient capitals, including Huijin Company, began to increase their holdings, and long-term funds such as insurance companies and social security funds are expected to increase their holdings in the market. In addition, the interest rate of government bonds has continued to decline recently, and the major state-owned banks have lowered their deposit rates again, opening up room for future interest rate cuts. Therefore, the "spring restlessness" in 2024 is very much worth looking forward to.

Yuanda Securities said that in recent years, the A-share market will periodically appear in the spring and around each year, which is generally known as "spring restlessness". The reasons for this are mainly affected by the following factors: the spring is in a vacuum period of economic data and performance, and the stock market is less affected by fundamentals; at the capital level, the market liquidity is relatively loose at the beginning of the year, and funds flow back to the stock market; at the policy level, the market expects that the policy is good for the stock market, and the capital game is laid out in advance; at the emotional level, after the Spring Festival holiday, the overall market sentiment is positive and optimistic, and the funds take the initiative to lay out the investment direction in the new year.

04

Will A-shares turn bullish in 2024?

Even looking at the whole of 2024, institutions have given optimistic predictions. Aijian Securities said that in 2024, the market will gradually come out of the bottom and begin to resume the upward road, and the market will gradually transform from a stock game to incremental innovation. It's just that the speed of the rise needs to be verified by mutual expectations and reality, and it will not be too fast, but the overall optimistic expectations will increase, which is the basis for market security. From the perspective of opportunities, whether it is trading opportunities or trend investment, low-level track assets are good investment varieties.

At the same time, considering that the valuation level determines the height of the rebound, the current A-share is in the historically low valuation area, with the advantage of valuation, and it is expected that the overall performance of A-shares in 2024 may be better than that in 2023 under the dual effect of valuation factors and liquidity factors. Especially at the beginning of the second half of the year, it is expected that under the positive verification, incremental funds such as insurance funds and northbound funds may enter the market in a big way, and A-shares are expected to turn bullish.

Of course, while some institutions are optimistic about the performance of A-shares in 2024, they also express caution. Zhongtai Securities said that although from the perspective of the big cycle, around the middle of 2024 may bring historical-level strategic allocation opportunities, but do not lightly talk about reversal and emotional excitement when chasing high, after all, the complexity of economic internal energy (real estate, investment, consumption, exports) repair may be difficult to reverse.

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