比1664点还便宜！2024年A股稳了？

以下文章来源于东方财富股票，作者辣笔小强

过去的2023年A股经历了明显的回调，但随之而来的是A股的性价比正在凸显，不少指数的市盈率或者市净率正处于近十年低位。

从市盈率来看，上证50指数的最新市盈率已不足10倍，为9.33倍。沪深300指数为10.96倍。中证100指数和上证指数的市盈率也不到20倍，分别为12.47倍和12.68倍。

而从市盈率百分位来看，创业板指的近十年市盈率百分位为1.03%，即当前估值只比近十年1.03%的交易日贵，其最新估值为27.85倍。沪深300指数、中证500指数、深证成指、上证50指数的近十年市盈率百分位也都不到20%，也是处于近十年相对低位。

再看PB，上证50指数只有1.06倍，沪深300指数为1.2倍。而市净率百分位，上证50指数、上证指数、沪深300指数分别只有1.23%、1.31%和2.63%，也是处于近十年极低位置。还有中证1000指数、创业板指和中证500指数的近十年市净率百分位则不足10%。

（数据来源：Choice，统计截至2023/12/31，不作投资推荐）

01

全球比也很便宜

就A股而言，不只是和自己过去相比极具性价比，和其他市场指数相比，也是很有性价比的。

港股的估值也是比较低的，恒生指数的市盈率为8.09倍，其近十年市盈率百分位为1.26%，即当前估值只比近十年1.26%的交易日贵。市净率方面，港股已整体破净，恒生指数的最新PB为0.87倍，近十年市净率百分位为2.32%。

美股就更贵了，标普500、道琼斯、纳斯达克的市盈率分别为24.12倍、25.53倍和40.46倍，近十年市盈率百分位分别为82%、85.63%和77.96%；市净率分别为4.19倍、6.53倍和5.65倍，近十年市净率百分位分别为88.76%，85.13%和86.07%。

（数据来源：Choice，统计截至2023/12/31，不作投资推荐）

02

比历次底部都便宜

若是和历次市场底部相比，在不少机构看来，当前A股也是极具性价比的。华福证券表示，当前全A市净率为1.43倍，已经低于2005年6月（998点，1.65倍）、2008年10月（1664点，2.06倍）、2013年6月（1849点，1.50倍）、2020年3月（2646点，1.56倍）、2022年4月（2863点，1.54倍）的历次市场底部估值水平，与2019年1月的最低点（2440点，1.43倍）持平。

从股权风险溢价（ERP）来看，截至2023年12月26日，中债10年国债到期收益率为2.58%，全A指数市盈率为16.2倍，全A指数ERP（市盈率倒数减去无风险利率）为3.61%，位于2010年以来的82%分位数水平（ERP越高代表股市相较债券市场的投资性价比更高）。在A股近期调整以及未来降息预期影响下，当前国内权益资产具有更好的投资性价比。

（图片来源：华福证券研究所，统计截至2023/12/26，不作投资推荐）

03

春季攻势可期？

随着A股估值的明显回落，甚至比历次市场大底还要低，2024年的春季攻势正被很多人提及。

华福证券表示，当前各项积极因素正不断累积。一方面，此前各项有利政策效果将陆续释放，推动经济平稳回升实现新年良好开局。另一方面，包括汇金公司在内的各项耐心资本开始增持，保险公司、社保基金等长期资金有望加码入市。此外，近期国债利率持续下行，国有大行再度下调存款利率，为未来降息打开空间。因此，2024年“春季躁动”情非常值得期待。

源达证券则表示，近年A股市场在每年春季及前后会周期性出现阶段行情投资机会，一般被称为“春季躁动”。究其原因，主要受以下几个因素影响：春季处于经济数据及业绩真空期，股票市场受基本面影响减少；在资金层面，年初市场流动性较宽松，资金回流股市；在政策层面，市场预期政策利好股市，资金博弈提前布局；在情绪层面，春节假日过后，市场情绪整体偏积极乐观，资金主动布局新一年投资方向。

04

2024年A股转牛？

即使看2024年全年，机构们也纷纷给出了乐观的预判。爱建证券表示，2024年，市场将逐步走出底部，开始恢复上升之路，市场将逐渐从存量博弈向增量创新转变。只是对于上升的速度有待预期与现实的相互验证，不会太快，但整体乐观预期增强，这就是市场安全的基础。从机会来看，无论是交易机会还是趋势投资，低位赛道类资产都是好的投资品种。

中信建投则表示，预计2024年资金面将逐步得到缓解，有望转为增量博弈，同时考虑到估值水平决定反弹高度，当前A股处于历史低估值区域，具备估值上的优势，在估值因素和流动性因素的双重作用下，预计2024年A股整体表现或好于2023年。尤其下半年开始，预期利好验证下险资、北向等增量资金或将大举入场，A股有望转牛。

当然了，部分机构在看好A股2024年表现的同时，也表达了谨慎。中泰证券就表示，虽说从大周期角度来说，2024年年中左右或带来历史级别的战略配置机遇，但不要轻言反转与情绪亢奋时追高，毕竟，经济内生动能（地产、投资、消费、出口）修复的复杂性或难轻言逆转。

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