比1664點還便宜！2024年A股穩了？

以下文章來源于東方财富股票，作者辣筆小強

過去的2023年A股經曆了明顯的回調，但随之而來的是A股的成本效益正在凸顯，不少指數的市盈率或者市淨率正處于近十年低位。

從市盈率來看，上證50指數的最新市盈率已不足10倍，為9.33倍。滬深300指數為10.96倍。中證100指數和上證指數的市盈率也不到20倍，分别為12.47倍和12.68倍。

而從市盈率百分位來看，創業闆指的近十年市盈率百分位為1.03%，即目前估值隻比近十年1.03%的交易日貴，其最新估值為27.85倍。滬深300指數、中證500指數、深證成指、上證50指數的近十年市盈率百分位也都不到20%，也是處于近十年相對低位。

再看PB，上證50指數隻有1.06倍，滬深300指數為1.2倍。而市淨率百分位，上證50指數、上證指數、滬深300指數分别隻有1.23%、1.31%和2.63%，也是處于近十年極低位置。還有中證1000指數、創業闆指和中證500指數的近十年市淨率百分位則不足10%。

（資料來源：Choice，統計截至2023/12/31，不作投資推薦）

01

全球比也很便宜

就A股而言，不隻是和自己過去相比極具成本效益，和其他市場指數相比，也是很有成本效益的。

港股的估值也是比較低的，恒生指數的市盈率為8.09倍，其近十年市盈率百分位為1.26%，即目前估值隻比近十年1.26%的交易日貴。市淨率方面，港股已整體破淨，恒生指數的最新PB為0.87倍，近十年市淨率百分位為2.32%。

美股就更貴了，标普500、道瓊斯、納斯達克的市盈率分别為24.12倍、25.53倍和40.46倍，近十年市盈率百分位分别為82%、85.63%和77.96%；市淨率分别為4.19倍、6.53倍和5.65倍，近十年市淨率百分位分别為88.76%，85.13%和86.07%。

（資料來源：Choice，統計截至2023/12/31，不作投資推薦）

02

比曆次底部都便宜

若是和曆次市場底部相比，在不少機構看來，目前A股也是極具成本效益的。華福證券表示，目前全A市淨率為1.43倍，已經低于2005年6月（998點，1.65倍）、2008年10月（1664點，2.06倍）、2013年6月（1849點，1.50倍）、2020年3月（2646點，1.56倍）、2022年4月（2863點，1.54倍）的曆次市場底部估值水準，與2019年1月的最低點（2440點，1.43倍）持平。

從股權風險溢價（ERP）來看，截至2023年12月26日，中債10年國債到期收益率為2.58%，全A指數市盈率為16.2倍，全A指數ERP（市盈率倒數減去無風險利率）為3.61%，位于2010年以來的82%分位數水準（ERP越高代表股市相較債券市場的投資成本效益更高）。在A股近期調整以及未來降息預期影響下，目前國内權益資産具有更好的投資成本效益。

（圖檔來源：華福證券研究所，統計截至2023/12/26，不作投資推薦）

03

春季攻勢可期？

随着A股估值的明顯回落，甚至比曆次市場大底還要低，2024年的春季攻勢正被很多人提及。

華福證券表示，目前各項積極因素正不斷累積。一方面，此前各項有利政策效果将陸續釋放，推動經濟平穩回升實作新年良好開局。另一方面，包括彙金公司在内的各項耐心資本開始增持，保險公司、社保基金等長期資金有望加碼入市。此外，近期國債利率持續下行，國有大行再度下調存款利率，為未來降息打開空間。是以，2024年“春季躁動”情非常值得期待。

源達證券則表示，近年A股市場在每年春季及前後會周期性出現階段行情投資機會，一般被稱為“春季躁動”。究其原因，主要受以下幾個因素影響：春季處于經濟資料及業績真空期，股票市場受基本面影響減少；在資金層面，年初市場流動性較寬松，資金回流股市；在政策層面，市場預期政策利好股市，資金博弈提前布局；在情緒層面，春節假日過後，市場情緒整體偏積極樂觀，資金主動布局新一年投資方向。

04

2024年A股轉牛？

即使看2024年全年，機構們也紛紛給出了樂觀的預判。愛建證券表示，2024年，市場将逐漸走出底部，開始恢複上升之路，市場将逐漸從存量博弈向增量創新轉變。隻是對于上升的速度有待預期與現實的互相驗證，不會太快，但整體樂觀預期增強，這就是市場安全的基礎。從機會來看，無論是交易機會還是趨勢投資，低位賽道類資産都是好的投資品種。

中信建投則表示，預計2024年資金面将逐漸得到緩解，有望轉為增量博弈，同時考慮到估值水準決定反彈高度，目前A股處于曆史低估值區域，具備估值上的優勢，在估值因素和流動性因素的雙重作用下，預計2024年A股整體表現或好于2023年。尤其下半年開始，預期利好驗證下險資、北向等增量資金或将大舉入場，A股有望轉牛。

當然了，部分機構在看好A股2024年表現的同時，也表達了謹慎。中泰證券就表示，雖說從大周期角度來說，2024年年中左右或帶來曆史級别的戰略配置機遇，但不要輕言反轉與情緒亢奮時追高，畢竟，經濟内生動能（地産、投資、消費、出口）修複的複雜性或難輕言逆轉。

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