Investment Advisory Weekly: The short-term interest rate market is "tailing", and gold and jewelry set off a small upsurge in consumption at the end of the year
Short-term interest rate market "taillifting"
There have been new changes in wealth management under the deposit interest rate cut
At the end of the year, gold jewelry set off a small upsurge in consumption
The high-interest rate strategy of private banks is expected to be unsustainable
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Domestic Investment News //
1. The short-term interest rate market is "warping", and the capital game war will start at the end of the year. Towards the end of 2023, the yield of some money market funds has hit 5%. Wind data shows that the seven-day annualized yield of Everbright Prudential's cash treasure currency class B share has soared to 5.14% last week. The yield of current wealth management has also begun to "peak", and the annualized rate of return of current wealth management products of individual banks has soared to 5.9% on December 26. At the same time, some interbank certificate of deposit funds are "in a hurry", the supply and demand of the low-risk product market are becoming increasingly tight, and the "tail effect" of the short-term interest rate market is emerging, and the capital game war is about to break out at the end of the year.
2. There are new changes in financial management under the deposit interest rate cut. In the context of the year-end deposit interest rate cut, the first financial reporter noticed that the financial management methods recommended by banks to customers have also changed. Different from the "explosion" of characteristic deposits under the previous deposit rate cut, this time, increased whole life insurance, dividend insurance, fixed income wealth management, savings treasury bonds, and gold wealth management products are recommended. According to industry insiders, under the downward trend of deposit interest rates, "deposit moving" will become a long-term trend.
3. At the end of the year, gold jewelry set off a small upsurge in consumption. Recently, a reporter from the China Securities Journal visited and investigated the gold consumer market in Beijing and found that near the end of the year, festivals are coming one after another, and the major gold jewelers have launched greater discount activities. In the atmosphere of greater promotion, consumers' enthusiasm for shopping is high. Industry insiders said that with the continuous penetration of terminal jewelry consumption scenarios, the cyclical attributes of the domestic jewelry industry will be weakened, the growth attributes will be highlighted, and the industry's prosperity is expected to continue to rise.
4. The high-interest strategy of private banks is expected to be unsustainable. Under multiple rounds of interest rate cuts, private banks have also gradually adjusted deposit interest rates, but they still have a strong price advantage on the whole, and the annualized interest rate of some products is still as high as 4%. Industry insiders pointed out that there is a certain gap between private banks and other banks in terms of brand operation, customer base, financing channels, etc., and increasing the pricing of deposit products will help to acquire customers and attract savings. However, under the current trend of interest rate cuts, the high interest rate strategy of private banks may be difficult to sustain.
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The decline in US Treasury real yields is expected to boost gold prices in 2024
。 Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodity strategy at J.P. Morgan, said she remains bullish on gold in 2024 with a target price of $2,300 an ounce. When the Fed's rate-cutting cycle begins, either in the second half of 2024 or the first half of 2025, the real yield on the 10-year Treasury note will start to fall from its current highs, which should boost the performance of the precious metals market.
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This Week's Market //
01 This week's major stock indexes and industry review
On Friday (December 29), the closing day of 2023, A-shares continued to rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.68% at 2,974.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.89% at 9,524.69 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.63% at 1,891.37 points, and the Wind Micro Cap Index up 1.98%. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.29%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.59%.
Data source: Wind Investment Advisory Terminal
Note: The statistical period is 2023/12/25-2023/12/29
02 Fund market
In the past week, the returns of the common equity fund index, partial stock hybrid fund index, and flexible allocation fund index have been 1.68%, 1.59%, and 1.14% respectively.
The FOF index, money market fund index, and short-term pure bond fund index performed poorly, with yields of -0.33%, 0.04%, and 0.17% respectively.
Data source: Wind Investment Advisory Terminal
Note: The statistical period is 2023/12/25-2023/12/29
03 Issuance of public funds
There are 45 new funds this week, including 16 bond funds, 13 equity funds, 10 hybrid funds, 4 FOF, and 1 REITs and 1 QDII.
04 This week's fund market review
05 Bank wealth management market
As of December 29, 652 net-worth bank wealth management products were newly issued this week, and 781 were established, with an establishment scale of 20,551.94 million yuan, a decrease of 63.46% from last week.
06 Product type
07 Issuer situation
Data source: Wind Investment Advisory Terminal
Note: The statistical period is 2023/12/25-2023/12/29
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Next Week's Economic Calendar //
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