Straight News: The 2024 Taiwan leadership election is approaching, what do you think is the situation of the blue camp in the overall election situation?
Geng Xin, Special Commentator: Taiwan is only a dozen days away from the election, and assessing the election situation at this time, whether it is political debates or other possible emergencies, will have a certain impact. However, observing the current election situation in Taiwan, there are four key points that should be grasped from the perspective of the basic market:
First, the green market is smaller than the non-green market. Opinion polls from almost any background show that the DPP is unpopular in power, and if it is either green, that is, blue and white, it should be greater than the green camp. Although it is difficult to form such a situation today, everyone in Taiwan and outside the island should understand this basic fact: The DPP does not represent the majority choice of Taiwan's public opinion. This is a crucial point in the value judgment of electoral politics and even in the overall assessment of Taiwan's public opinion.
Second, the direction of Baiying may be a variable and worth paying attention to. At present, the blue-green camp has been integrated and returned to the team and gradually formed a "two major pattern," and the room for urging votes is shrinking day by day; however, although the white camp represented by Ke Wenzhe has weakened, there is still room for the formation of "variables," including the possible local "abandonment effect," and so on, but if some supporters of the white camp turn to the election hopelessly, who is more beneficial to the blue and green? I am afraid that this is a complex variable: there are "easy to turn crowds" The distribution factors of blue-green tendencies, led by Ke Wenzhe's own attitude, and the comprehensive impact of blue-green operations and external environments such as Sino-US relations, are worthy of attention.
Third, judging from the current situation, although the election on the island has gone through twists and turns, there has been no major change in the basic pattern of the non-green camp being "big but not harmonious" and the green camp being "slightly ahead." This is the reality of Taiwan's election situation that has been highlighted on the surface, and it is also the basic result of previous opinion polls. For this, it is necessary to have a clear understanding and preparation.
The fourth is the focus of attention, that is, the situation of the blue camp, although it has been slightly sluggish for several years, and this election has not been able to "lead", but compared with the 2020 election, the blue camp is showing an unprecedented favorable situation.
First, there has been a positive change in people's attitudes towards the blue and green parties. Judging from the proportion of "party votes" for the first time in 2020, the Chinese Kuomintang won 33.36% of the votes at that time, while the DPP only had 33.98%, which is almost the same. This shows that the political program and ruling ability of the "consensus of '92" and the "one China" principle upheld by the Kuomintang have a considerable degree of recognition on the island of Taiwan, accounting for at least one-third of the Taiwan people, which is roughly the same as that of the Democratic Progressive Party. Judging from the development of the past four years, various factors unfavorable to the DPP have been growing, especially the pressure of war risks and the bad record of corruption and incompetence brought about by the DPP's pursuit of "Taiwan independence." Tsai Ing-wen's negative news in the "last eight years" has been even greater than that in Chen Shui-bian's "first eight years," making "removing the DPP" a majority of public opinion, and this is the most important favorable factor for the blue camp. In addition, in recent years, the momentum of the blue camp in the local elections is like a rainbow, and the performance of the government is also good, and the recent "Zhao Shaokang effect" is significantly boosting the support rate of the Kuomintang.
Second, the "stop falling and stabilizing" of Sino-US relations is conducive to the blue camp. Compared with the tension in the late Trump administration four years ago, today's Sino-US relations have obviously eased, and the Biden administration has recently repeatedly emphasized that it does not support "Taiwan independence" and that "it cannot engage in confrontation or engage in a new Cold War" with China.
In short, although the support rate of the blue camp has never exceeded that of the green camp in various polls today, the blue camp is indeed consolidating for the better, and this situation is very positive for the election situation and even for the comprehensive development of the situation in the Taiwan Strait in the future.
Straight News: Recently, everyone has been paying attention to Taiwan's election, do you think it will have a great impact or impact on the situation in the Taiwan Strait?
Geng Xin, Special Commentator: I think that the current situation in the Taiwan Strait has emerged a dynamic and stable structure, that is, an established pattern that can basically maintain relative stability despite turbulence. It is difficult to make major changes due to internal and external factors such as "election results".
I would like to summarize it into four "difficult to change": First, no matter what the election situation is in the next few days, and with only a dozen days approaching, it is estimated that neither the so-called "candidate debate" nor the possibility of some sudden incidents like the "319 shooting" of that year will fundamentally affect the outcome of this Taiwan election.
Second, at this time, of course, everyone is very concerned about who will come to power in the election, what kind of statements or promises they make before and after taking office, and what actions they will make, especially some words and deeds related to cross-strait relations. However, I believe that no matter which party comes to power in this election, it is very difficult for the basic pattern of the Taiwan Strait to undergo major changes. If the Green Battalion comes to power, although Lai Qingde will continue to uphold the "Taiwan independence" proposition and carry out all kinds of destructive negative actions, he will not dare to touch the red line drawn by Beijing, the DPP has never had the capital to play such a "game," and the United States will not support him in taking risks. Therefore, he must also take measures to stabilize the situation and stabilize cross-strait relations. If the blue camp is elected, it should return to the situation of the "92 consensus," but there are too many negative factors accumulated in the Taiwan Strait over the past few years, and I estimate that it will be difficult to immediately and fundamentally change the current status quo of cross-strait relations. In short, no matter who comes to power, we must not harbor unrealistic illusions about the development of cross-strait relations.
Third, although the situation in the Taiwan Strait may remain complicated and uncertain after the election, there is a bigger pattern between the two sides of the strait that is more difficult to change, that is, in terms of the structure of cross-strait relations, judging from the mainland's mature principles and policies toward Taiwan, and the direction of peaceful development and cooperation in cross-strait relations over the past few years, and the direction of integrated development, it will be even more difficult to change this general pattern: that is, the majority of the people on the mainland and on the island hope that cross-strait relations will be peaceful and stable. The family's desire for cooperation and development and a good life is the mainstream, and the leading role in the direction of the development of the situation in the Taiwan Strait has always been and is increasingly in the hands of the mainland, which is difficult for any person or force to change.
Fourth, in the development of the Taiwan-related game between China and the United States, it is difficult for the United States to change its strategic intention of continuing to play the "Taiwan card" and using the Taiwan issue to contain China's development, but no matter how the United States provokes or intervenes, it is difficult to change the objective fact that Taiwan is part of China's territory, the first consensus that China and the United States "cannot conflict" and the second consensus that "cannot be decoupled" in the construction of the way China and the United States get along, and it is difficult to change the relatively balanced relationship of power, the relationship of highly shared risks, and the relationship of closely interdependent interests between China and the United States. The above-mentioned "one-China" principle, "two consensuses" and "three major relations" constitute the foundation and core of today's Sino-US relations. Not only are it difficult for "Taiwan independence" elements to change this basic pattern, but it is also difficult for the US side to unilaterally change this general pattern. At present, Sino-US relations are "stopping the decline and stabilizing," and an important factor is the consensus and balance formed through long-term running-in on the Taiwan issue. Moreover, I must point out that there is not a "sure war" between China and the United States on the Taiwan issue, whether it is the "Shanghai Communiqué" more than 50 years ago, the "Communiqué on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations" and the "August 17 Communique" more than 40 years ago, and the coordination to contain Chen Shui-bian's attempt at "Taiwan independence" more than 10 years ago, China and the United States have also been trying to gradually transform the "negative and negative friction factor" of the Taiwan issue into a "positive and positive cooperation factor." Although there are still some difficulties, the future is bright. This is also difficult to change.
Author丨Geng Xin, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".