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The 2024 U.S. presidential election has entered the one-year countdown, and there are only two months left before the Republican primary.
At present, Biden and Trump, the current and former occupants of the White House, are undoubtedly the two most competitive and most-watched candidates.
Not surprisingly, the 2024 US presidency is very likely to fall to Trump or Biden, and the competition between the two "kings" is a foregone conclusion.
However, the battle between Biden and Trump also means that the situation of bipartisan competition and empty consumption of US national power will be staged again...
Trump "preempted" the election battle
On November 15, 2022, Trump announced at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago in Florida that he would officially participate in the 2024 U.S. presidential race.
At the meeting that night, Trump held up the slogan "Trump 2024" and declared that he must save his country and make America great and glorious again.
It is reported that shortly before Trump's public speech, he had submitted his campaign papers to the Federal Election Commission and officially became one of the presidential candidates.
In terms of timing, the election was announced two years in advance, which is much earlier than normal.
Generally speaking, the launch of the campaign in March and April of the year before the election campaign is already very advanced, and Trump has advanced the campaign node by half a year at the original advanced time point, which can be said to be a "rush" attitude to start the election battle.
According to Trump's vision, he will help the Republican Party gain a huge advantage in the midterm elections, portraying it as his victory, and then take advantage of the situation to announce his candidacy in the next 2024 election.
But contrary to expectations, the Republican Party did not achieve the desired results in the midterm elections.
With Democrats retaining control of the Senate by winning 50 of the 100 seats in the Senate, the Republican wave that Trump was expecting came to an end.
However, despite the Republican Party's failure to get off to a winning start in the election, Trump is still the party's most competitive presidential candidate.
Trump has not participated in the debate in many candidate races in the Republican Party, but his approval rating has always been the highest in the party, more than 50 percentage points ahead of the second place.
Not only that, but Trump has gained an advantage over the Biden administration in the latest US polls.
According to the latest data, Trump is ahead of Biden by 4% -10% in the polls of five swing states including Georgia and Michigan.
In 2020, Biden was the winner in these states.
This shows that Trump's behavior of "rushing" the election battle in 2024 has achieved certain results.
At the moment, Trump seems to be the strongest contender for the 2024 presidential election.
On the other hand, the Biden administration's campaign preparations are also in full swing.
"Sniping" Trump
Compared with Trump's "rush", Biden's campaign manifesto was much later.
It wasn't until April 2023 that the Biden administration officially announced its candidacy for next year's presidential election.
It is worth mentioning that it is not so much that Biden is running for the presidency this time, but that he is going for Trump.
In his campaign manifesto in Boston on December 5, Biden said: "If Trump does not run, I am not sure that I will still run, and the Democrats will not let him win this victory." ”
Biden's remarks show that Trump is Biden's biggest motivation for re-election, and if Trump is not involved in the 2024 election, he may step down from politics.
Compared with the mixed Republican Party, the Democratic Party's primary pattern is very clear.
On the premise that Biden proposed re-election, potential candidates and challengers in the party have given way and entrusted Biden with the responsibility of "sniping" Trump.
And he himself believes that he is the best person to defeat Trump.
However, judging by the current bipartisan election situation, Biden seems to be on the underdog.
Over the past three years or so, the Biden administration's performance has been questioned, and the public's trust in Biden has diminished day by day.
According to the survey, only 37% of Americans still trust Biden's economic policies, while Trump has a whopping 59% approval rating.
Respondents at nearly every class and income level felt that Biden's policies had hurt them.
The results suggest that Biden's 2024 presidential re-election appeal could be in jeopardy.
Previously, the Biden administration had spent millions of dollars to promote his achievements across the country, touting so-called "Bidennomics."
But only 2 percent of interviewers believe that the U.S. economy is doing well, and that a majority of the population is more supportive of the economic actions and policies of the Trump administration.
In addition, Biden's age factor will also become a stumbling block on his road to president.
In November of this year, Biden celebrated his 81st birthday.
For him, who wants to be re-elected, the title of the oldest president in U.S. history is not a favorable factor for him to win popular votes.
More than 7 in 10 respondents believe Biden is too old to be a qualified president, including 54 percent of Biden supporters.
Another 62 percent of respondents believe that age will make Biden lack enough mental acumen to lead the United States to a better future.
Even within the Democratic Party, there are many who are not optimistic about Biden's age and health.
Several officials have expressed their concern that Biden will withdraw from the campaign due to health reasons, and the Democratic Party will face a major blow and even trigger internal strife.
At the moment, it seems that Biden's approval rating in the polls is not optimistic.
In fact, Biden's approval rating has been below 50% since August 2021.
The latest poll released in December shows that Biden's approval rating has reached an all-time low.
A series of critical data has sounded the alarm for Biden and the Democratic Party.
But within the Democratic Party, Biden's position remains unassailable.
Public opinion believes that if Biden really abdicates and makes way for the virtuous, the Democratic Party must submit a representative by August next year.
Unfortunately, the Democrats don't seem to have a plan B.
Vice President Kamala Harris lacks the leadership and visibility to be the Democratic representative, so Biden remains the party's undisputed No. 1 candidate for the election.
In this way, the protagonists of the 2024 U.S. election are still Trump and Biden, and both sides have their own problems, and it is difficult to say who will win the presidency.
However, in this way, the United States may once again fall into the tragedy of fierce contention between the two parties and increasing internal friction.
The two parties are fighting each other, and the tragedy is repeated
On August 1, 2023, Trump was criminally charged by the Department of Justice for allegedly overturning the results of the 2020 election.
This is reportedly the third indictment Trump has received this year.
Previously, he had also been prosecuted for cases such as "confidential document gate" and "hush money".
According to the indictment, Trump is currently charged with four major counts, including conspiracy to defraud the state, obstruction of the judicial process, and more.
After the 2020 election, the defeated Trump denied the election results, spread rumors that the election was fraudulent, and said that he had won the final victory.
Other media reported that Trump had tried to use a personal phone call to pressure the vice president in solidarity with him in overturning the election results.
Relevant personnel believe that it is precisely because of Trump's refusal to admit accounts and disrupt order after the election that caused the subsequent "Capitol Hill riot".
Judging from the report issued by the US Department of Justice, although Trump has announced his participation in the election, this does not mean that he can get rid of the lawsuit, and the investigation against him will not stop.
U.S. federal prosecutors also said that the Justice Department's criminal investigation into Trump is on the agenda, and the election process will not allow the Justice Department to change the results and decisions of the investigation.
Normally, the U.S. Department of Justice usually stops investigating candidates two months before the election to avoid influencing the outcome of the election, but there is still a long way to go before the election, and it may be enough to bring them to justice.
At the same time, some state courts have announced that Trump's charges have been confirmed and he will be disqualified from running.
Although the effectiveness of state courts cannot be applied nationwide, it is enough to interfere with Trump's campaign process.
On the other hand, Biden is also deeply troubled by lawsuits.
On December 13, the House of Representatives voted to pass an impeachment inquiry against Biden for his alleged sub-business case.
It is reported that Biden's son, Hunter Biden, has evaded taxes and used his power to obtain improper gains.
Biden has also been charged for this, and the House of Representatives believes that he has obtained improper rights and shielded his son.
To which Biden responded: "This is just a gimmick for no reason, and I am disappointed that Republicans are busy using language to attack the Democrats while doing nothing to help American citizens improve their lives." ”
The Democratic media hit the nail on the head: "Trump is asking Republicans to do this, and they are using impeachment as a weapon to attack the president, which is the most serious and serious thing!"
Another person outside the party said that the Republican Party hopes to create a dark cloud on Biden's head before the start of next year's election.
In fact, the statements made by the Democratic media and people outside the party are not unreasonable.
Impeachment and prosecution of presidents have long been commonplace in American history in recent years, especially in the run-up to the election.
The reason behind the successive indictments of Trump in 2020 and now the impeachment of Biden by the House of Representatives is bipartisan.
Racking their brains to attack and smear their opponents before the election has become a common tactic of American politicians.
As a result, the United States will inevitably fall into a bleak situation of fierce struggle between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party and crazy internal friction.
Against the backdrop of declining living standards, high inflation, and declining national income levels in the United States, the two major political parties as the leadership are increasing their internal friction, which is tantamount to a tragedy for the innocent American people.
epilogue
Now, the 2024 election in the United States is still nearly a year away, but the election situation is already clear.
Not surprisingly, the presidency will be decided between Biden and Trump.
At present, it seems that Biden's poll approval rating is declining, and Trump's social reputation has been reversed.
But in terms of lawsuits, it is clear that Biden is less stressed and Trump is more troubled.
Overall, the two are still evenly matched, and it is still difficult to determine who will die in the end.
But the more the two parties are facing each other, the more fierce the competition between the two parties will become, and only ordinary Americans will suffer in the end.
From this point of view, it seems inevitable that another tragedy will be staged.
Resources
- LI Zhun,DING Yayi,PEI Jian. The U.S. House of Representatives launched an impeachment inquiry against Biden[N]. Global Times,2023-12-15(002).
- Gong Chunhui,Chen Rongwei,Chen Ziyang. Will Trump be "out early"?[N]. Nanfang Daily,2023-12-22(A11).