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The situation in Taiwan's 2024 general election is anxious, and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is leading in the early polls, but it is being caught up by the Kuomintang at the last moment.
(Taiwan's election is anxious)
However, the recent news seems to mean that the results of Taiwan's election campaign are already predictable, and Lai Qingde is afraid that he will be unable to recover.
These circumstances also show that although the mainland does not interfere in Taiwan's elections, no one can ignore the mainland's existence in Taiwan's elections.
The ECFA was partially suspended on the mainland
On December 15, the Ministry of Commerce's investigation into Taiwan's trade barriers to the mainland finally concluded that Taiwan's trade barriers were established, and in response, the mainland terminated tariff concessions on 12 products originally on the ECFA list.
Subsequently, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council also expressed its support for this, pointing out that after the DPP came to power, the Taiwan side implemented various policies that hindered the implementation of the ECFA, and the mainland had to respond by partially suspending the ECFA.
In her speech, spokeswoman Zhu Fenglian also pointed out that such issues should have been resolved through consultations, but the DPP's stubborn "Taiwan independence" has hindered cross-strait communication, which has eventually led to the current situation.
(Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council)
Although there had been early warnings and the Taiwan side should have been mentally prepared enough, when the partial suspension of the ECFA finally landed, the Taiwan side was still in an uproar.
Although the DPP authorities are reluctant to admit the reality and are still verbally reassuring that "the impact is not significant", practitioners in the petrochemical industry related to the 12 products on the list are mourning.
Because the damage was so serious, the Taiwan Petrochemical Association did not give face to the ruling party at all, bluntly saying that the petrochemical industry was seriously affected, and also said that the upstream and downstream industries would also be affected, and asked the DPP authorities to take measures as soon as possible.
At the same time, there are still many people who are worried that the mainland's action may only be a warning that if the DPP authorities are unable to change their "Taiwan independence" stance in a timely manner, then the mainland will go one step further and cancel more product concessions or even cancel the ECFA altogether.
Due to the DPP's inaction, the Taiwan people are not small and are worried about Taiwan's economic situation after the DPP continues to be elected, which also affects the DPP's election results.
(Kuomintang Vice Chairman Xia Liyan)
The Kuomintang also seized this opportunity.
On 18 December, shortly after the mainland announced the partial suspension of the ECFA, Xia Liyan, vice chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT), who was visiting Taiwan businessmen on the mainland, said in an interview with Taiwan media that the DPP could not hold talks with the mainland at all, and that the KMT had this foundation.
In the interview, he cited the prosperity and stability of cross-strait relations when the Kuomintang was in power as evidence to prove that the Kuomintang has the ability, willingness, and experience to hold talks with the mainland, hoping to build momentum for Taiwan's general election.
The Kuomintang won 4 trump cards in the general election
I don't know if Xia Liyan's strategy played a role, and in Taiwan's general election, the four trump cards of the Kuomintang have gradually formed.
The first is in the KMT's "old nest" Taipei Kitao, where the KMT's lead has taken shape.
Although Taipei is the traditional vote base of the blue camp, the People's Party Ke Wenzhe also rose from here, and in the previous polls, the KMT's lead was not very stable.
Now that the situation in Taipei has returned, the Kuomintang can breathe a sigh of relief.
(Lai Qingde's hometown is illegally built)
The second card is surprising, that is, in the traditional green camp vote warehouse in Tainan, the Kuomintang also opened up the situation, and when "Hou Kangpei" went to Tainan to carry out election activities, the atmosphere at the scene was quite enthusiastic.
To say that this situation has arisen, it is also thanks to the "active cooperation" of the DPP, the DPP has been in power in Tainan frequently, and even the DPP candidate Lai Qingde has been exposed to illegal construction in his hometown.
Former Taiwan "legislator" Guo Zhengliang bluntly said that the DPP's situation in Tainan has been broken, and Taiwan's media people generally believe that the DPP will not be able to gain a big advantage in Tainan in this election.
The third card is even more crucial, that is, in Central Taiwan, which has been crucial in previous elections, the KMT has taken the advantage.
At present, most of the counties and cities in Central Taiwan are in power by the Kuomintang, and Taichung Lu Xiuyan, Changhua Wang Huimei, and Yunlin Zhang Lishan are all in their second term.
(Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan)
This means that these people's achievements in governing have been recognized by the local people, and they are more able to win the support of the people, and it also means that they no longer need to consider the issue of re-election, and they can go all out to support the election.
What is even more heartening for the KMT is that in the Taichung area, the KMT and the People's Party seem to have reached a cooperation.
In the "legislator" election, Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan actively stood for the People's Party candidate Tsai Biru.
Correspondingly, when asked about the "abandonment of insurance" operation in Taiwan's leadership election, Tsai Biru responded that the focus is to achieve political party rotation, and voters should think carefully about who to vote for.
This seems to imply that the People's Party is ready to help the KMT win the election because it has no hope of winning the election.
In the volatile Central Taiwan region, the People's Party is still quite popular, and if the supporters of the Central Taiwan People's Party switch to the Kuomintang, it will become an important force in the general election.
(Lu Xiuyan strongly supports Cai Biru)
Finally, the KMT has also made significant progress in winning over Gou.
Pingtung County Council Speaker Zhou Dianlun, former Yunlin County Mayor Zhang Rongwei and other important people who originally belonged to the "pro-Guo faction" have recently publicly expressed their support for Hou Youyi, and Zhou Dianlun also revealed that Guo Taiming himself has also made a decision to "help the Kuomintang".
With the "return" of Gou's supporters, the KMT's unpopularity among young people will be improved to a certain extent, which will be a huge help to the KMT's election results.
The sudden change in the situation of Taiwan's general election has also demonstrated the mainland's influence on Taiwan.
Although the mainland has always scrupulously kept its promise and never interfered in the elections in the Taiwan region, every move of the mainland will affect Taiwan's development and lead to a change in the mentality of the Taiwan people.
The "Taiwan independence" forces want to continue to engage in "resisting China and protecting Taiwan," but the people of Taiwan will not continue to be cannon fodder for them when the situation is clear.
Resources
The latest polls in Taiwan's 2024 "general election": "Lai Hsiao-pei" polls continue to fall Straight news
The mainland suspends tariff concessions on some ECFA products, Global Times
Xia Liyan: The Chinese Kuomintang has a common political foundation with the mainland and is capable of handling cross-strait relations
The Kuomintang internal poll golden cross Jiang Wanan revealed: "Hou Kangpei" Beibei Jitao leads Zhongtian TV's official NEWS
Guo Zhengliang: The green camp in Tainan is broken! Taiwan Strait Net
China Review Concern: China and Taiwan's election situation is stalemate, swing state variables are large, China Review Network
Quick comment: Guo Taiming is returning to the team soon? China Review Network