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Text/Editor|Xiaoyi World
Preface
At this time of change and challenge, an important question is before us: will the landscape of the aviation industry continue to be redefined? Boeing, once an aviation giant, is facing unprecedented challenges, and China's rise is unstoppable. With the rise of the C919 large aircraft, China's high-end manufacturing industry is radiating new vitality. In the future, we will see a revolution in the aviation industry. Let Xiaobian Xiaoyi take you to explore in depth.
Eight years ago, Xu Jian'an, Boeing's first Chinese-American engineer, told his story passionately in an exclusive interview with Overseas Chinese Daily. At that time, Boeing had a clear advantage in the Chinese market, accounting for almost half of the passenger aircraft market share. This market dominance has frustrated the CEO of rival Airbus and even expressed his displeasure in public.
An employee of Chinese descent working at Boeing once mentioned an interesting fact in an interview with the media: about a quarter of the employees in the Boeing 737 production department are actually paid by orders from the Chinese market. The review revealed that about a quarter of Boeing's 737 production is mainly supplied to the Chinese market. In fact, data released by Boeing and market research agencies shows that about half of the orders for civil aviation airliners in the Chinese market are owned by Boeing.
The comments of the Chinese-American employee revealed the close relationship between the Boeing 737 division and the Chinese market. In other words, this division of Boeing is heavily dependent on the needs of the Chinese market. According to data released by Boeing and market analysts, China's demand for the Boeing 737 family of aircraft is extremely strong, and this series of orders accounts for nearly 50% of Boeing's total civil aircraft orders.
According to the statement of the Boeing Chinese employee in the interview, it can be seen that the Boeing 737 business unit is highly dependent on the Chinese market. In fact, about a quarter of Boeing 737 production is to meet demand in the Chinese market. These figures underscore the centrality of the Chinese market to Boeing's business. According to data from Boeing and market analysts, Boeing accounts for about half of the passenger aircraft purchase orders in China's civil aviation market.
Things have changed dramatically at Boeing over time. Since 2018, Chinese mainland's orders for new aircraft from Boeing have come to an abrupt halt. According to several international media reports, Boeing's revenue in China has plummeted by 70% in the past two years, with a cumulative loss of $61.5 billion. Boeing blamed the situation on a decline in orders from the Chinese market, and U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo expressed concern about the situation and issued a serious warning. He issued a warning emphasizing that if China continues not to buy Boeing aircraft, the United States may reconsider its decision to supply engines for Chinese C919 aircraft.
Over the past eight years, Xu Jian'an, a Chinese-born engineer at Boeing, has witnessed the company's ups and downs. In an interview with Qiao Bao, he proudly spoke of Boeing's prominent position in China's aviation market. Over time, however, Boeing's situation seems to have undergone a radical shift. Since 2018, Chinese mainland's purchases of new aircraft from Boeing have decreased significantly. According to international media reports, Boeing's turnover in the Chinese market has declined significantly in the past two years, falling by a staggering 70%, resulting in Boeing facing a cumulative loss of up to $61.5 billion. Boeing attributed the situation largely to Chinese mainland's reduced orders for its aircraft. U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo expressed deep concern about this trend and warned that the U.S. may consider cutting off the supply of engines for China's C919 airliners if China continues not to order aircraft from Boeing.
These efforts do not appear to have received an enthusiastic response from the Chinese side. Faced with this situation, Boeing's chief executive, Calhoun, took a rather provocative approach, even threatening that if China did not buy Boeing's aircraft, they would consider stopping the supply of key aircraft parts to the C919.
But this so-called "threat" does not pose a substantial problem for China. In fact, at the beginning of the C919 project, the Chinese R&D team took "independent research and development of core technologies" as the core concept, which ran through the entire R&D process of the project. At present, China's self-developed aero engine CJ1000A has completed a number of key tests, and it is only a matter of time before it is officially put into use. At the recent Zhuhai Airshow, the C919 not only received airworthiness certifications from 27 countries, but also received more than 1,000 orders, a figure that even exceeds that of Boeing and Airbus combined.
Against the backdrop of frequent visits by high-level U.S. officials to China and efforts to win orders for Boeing, Boeing's CEO Calhoun has shown a more hawkish stance. He has publicly stated that Boeing may stop supplying key components to China's C919 if China does not choose to buy Boeing aircraft. Such rhetoric is seen as a clear threat to the Chinese market.
China is not worried. As early as the beginning of the C919 project, China has been committed to the concept of "independent innovation" of the R&D team, focusing on the independent research and development of core technologies. China's self-developed CJ1000A aero engine has passed an important test stage and is nearing the final installation stage. At the recent Zhuhai Airshow, the C919 large aircraft achieved remarkable results, obtained airworthiness certifications from 27 countries, and successfully received orders for more than 1,000 aircraft, a report card that has attracted wide attention in the global aviation industry, even surpassing the total orders of Boeing and Airbus.
When China's domestic C919 large aircraft made its maiden flight in Hong Kong and flew over Victoria Harbour, it shocked Hong Kong and the whole of China, and triggered a wide range of enthusiastic responses. Countless Chinese people, including Hong Kong compatriots, have shown strong interest and high expectations for this. In the face of this momentum, Boeing's chief executive and U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo, the political and business partners, are feeling unprecedented pressure and have begun to actively call on Chinese mainland to reconsider Boeing's products.
Boeing's sense of urgency is not surprising to the industry, given that the rapid rise of the C919 poses a huge threat to them. Especially at the beginning of the year, the C919 suffered the setback of "test flight failure" and suffered ridicule and doubts from foreign media. But just a few months later, in May, the C919 turned the tables with its first commercial passenger flight.
In September, He Dongfeng of COMAC released even more shocking news: the total number of domestic and foreign orders for C919 has reached 1,061. Of particular note is the recent major order from General Aviation, USA, for the one-time purchase of 20 C919 aircraft. This behavior caused a wide discussion in the American media, who questioned: "Why do we have Boeing planes when we want to buy big Chinese planes? What are we doing?"
This series of events, from the spectacular scene of the first flight of the C919 aircraft in Hong Kong to the large number of orders from the United States General Airlines, has made the Chinese people extremely proud. People across China, including Hong Kong, are excited and looking forward to this achievement. This also poses unprecedented challenges to Boeing and the U.S. government. Boeing's CEO and Commerce Secretary Raimondo's anxiety is palpable, and they have repeatedly called on Chinese mainland to give Boeing more opportunities.
Boeing's nervousness is not surprising in the industry. The breakthrough of the C919 large aircraft, especially the strong rebound after the initial test flight failure, has won it a great reputation. The C919 successfully made its first commercial passenger flight in May, marking a complete turnaround. In September, COMAC's He Dongfeng announced even more remarkable news: orders for C919 have reached 1,061, including 20 large orders from General Aviation.
With the rise and gradual growth of China's domestic large aircraft C919, Boeing is facing increasingly challenging challenges. Boeing's finances have been in trouble since 2019, with cumulative losses reaching a staggering 61.5 billion yuan. According to Boeing's top management, the production line of their classic "Super Hornet" Boeing F/A-18 may be forced to stop production in 2025 if it does not get new orders to support it quickly. This means that a classic model that has been on the market for almost 50 years may be permanently retired from the stage of aviation history.
Boeing's attempts in the Chinese market also do not seem to have paid off. Despite U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo's visit to China, the trip did not appear to have sparked a clear interest in the purchase on the Chinese side. The news about the order for 40 aircraft, which had previously circulated on the Internet, was actually only a revisit of last year's reports.
According to the latest research report data of China's commercial aviation industry, the C919 aims to occupy 30% of the global market share, forming a three-power competition with Boeing and Airbus. Over the next 20 years, Boeing could lose more than 1.7 trillion yuan. The People's Daily once pointed out that "China's high-end manufacturing industry is no longer comparable to what it used to be." "The Boeing era, which once dominated aviation, seems to be coming to an end, and China's rising aviation industry is rapidly catching up.
Boeing has faced unprecedented challenges in the past few years, especially since 2019, when its financial position has continued to deteriorate, with cumulative losses of up to 61.5 billion yuan. The exacerbation of this loss was partly due to the lack of new order support. According to Boeing internal sources, one of their iconic products, the "Super Hornet" Boeing F/A-18, may be discontinued in 2025 if there are no new orders. This would mark the end of a model that had been around for almost half a century.
Boeing is not going well in the Chinese market. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo's trip to China did not meet expectations, the Chinese side did not show obvious purchase intentions, and the news about the 40 aircraft order that had been circulating on the Internet was actually old news from last year.
According to the latest COMAC industry research report, the C919 plans to occupy at least 30% of the global market share, thus forming a competitive landscape with Boeing and Airbus. Boeing could lose more than 1.7 trillion yuan in the next 20 years. As the People's Daily put it, China's high-end manufacturing industry is developing rapidly. Against this backdrop, Boeing, once dominated by aviation, is now facing a strong challenge from China's rise.
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