Reporter | Anjing
After the United States announced the creation of a Red Sea escort alliance to deal with the threat of the Houthis in Yemen, international shipping companies did not breathe a sigh of relief.
As of the morning of December 20, 121 container ships chose to avoid the Red Sea detour to the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, and more container ships are expected to make a detour after that, according to tracking by global logistics giant Keuhne+Nagel.
Vessel traffic in the southern Red Sea Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden fell 14% on December 15-19 compared to Dec. 8-12, according to ship-tracking agency MarineTraffic.
Following Maersk and other shipping giants suspending Red Sea transportation, British Petroleum and Statoil also suspended Red Sea transportation, causing international oil prices to soar for a time.
A spokesperson for the IKEA Group, one of the world's largest furniture retailers, warned that the avoidance of the Red Sea by cargo ships will lead to shipping delays, and some IKEA products may be in short supply. The head of the Trade Logistics Branch of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development also warned that the disruption of the Suez Canal-Red Sea route will eventually lead to higher prices for consumer goods.
Most of the Arab countries along the Red Sea coast and in the Gulf region have not responded positively to the international Red Sea escort alliance established by the United States, and even Egypt, a victim of the Red Sea attack, is not on the alliance's list. However, U.S. officials revealed that some of the Arab countries participating in the alliance have not made their identities publicly available.
Within the escort alliance, the countries did not show their full support. Insiders in the shipping industry are unclear about the alliance's plans and how it will act.
At a time when the effectiveness of the Red Sea escort operation was unknown, the Spanish Ministry of Defense confirmed that a merchant ship had been hijacked off the coast of Somalia. The chaos in the Red Sea is providing an opportunity for Somali pirates to make a comeback.
Red Sea Escort Alliance: Effect unknown
After U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced on Tuesday the creation of a 10-nation Red Sea escort alliance, Yemen's Houthi rebels made it clear that the group will continue to strike ships bound for Israel until Israel stops its invasion of Gaza.
On Wednesday, the Houthis issued another warning to the United States and the escort coalition. In a televised address, the group's leader, Abdul Malik Houthi, threatened that U.S. warships and other targets would be targeted by the Houthis "if the United States foolishly chooses to attack Yemen or go to war against Yemen."
So far, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have caused no casualties or damage to US military installations, and the Houthis have not targeted US troops. The United States prefers to respond with restraint and avoid allowing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to escalate into a regional war.
U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Ferner previously said that the United States reserves the right to take military action against the Houthis, but the current focus is on building a maritime alliance to ensure the safe passage of merchant ships through the Red Sea.
Austin's announcement of the Red Sea Escort Alliance consists mainly of NATO countries: the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Seychelles and Bahrain.
Earlier, U.S. officials said that Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Egypt and other Arab countries may join the escort alliance. Judging from the final list, Bahrain is the only country in the Middle East to join.
And U.S. National Security Council spokesman Kirby revealed at a press conference on Tuesday that other countries have also joined the escort alliance, but decided not to disclose their identities to the public.
Lara Seligman, a reporter for the American political news network, broke the news that according to senior US officials, a total of 19 countries besides the United States have agreed to join the escort alliance, but only nine have announced it to the public. Among the 10 countries that did not wish to disclose their identities were Arab countries.
Saudi Arabia, which is in peace talks with the Houthis, was widely expected not to join the coalition. The rest of the Arab countries chose to hide their identities, mainly because they did not want to be perceived by their citizens as participating in the escort to protect Israel's interests. It is not known what these Arab countries will invest in the escort.
There are also significant differences in the level of investment among the nine countries that have been made public.
Britain was the staunchest supporter, announcing that it would send the destroyer "Diamond" to join the Red Sea escort alliance, and Italy was secretive that it would send a frigate to the Red Sea to protect the interests of Italian shipowners, but stressed that this move was not an operation of the Red Sea escort alliance, but an operation that Italy was already undertaking.
France declared its support for the Red Sea escort alliance, but made it clear that French warships could only be commanded by the French. France currently has a frigate in the Red Sea, and the military did not say whether it would send additional warships.
Spain, for its part, has taken a cautious stance, saying that it will only participate in NATO-led operations or EU operations, and will not participate in "unilaterally" in the Red Sea operation. The Netherlands and Norway decided not to send warships, but only soldiers and officers to participate in the Red Sea convoy.
It is unclear to what extent the Red Sea escort coalition will take action against the Houthis. European officials have previously said that members of the coalition would be responsible for shooting down missiles and drones fired by the Houthis at merchant ships in the Red Sea, rather than actively attacking the Houthis.
U.S. military officials said the coalition would not be able to escort all merchant ships because of the sheer number of merchant ships passing through the Red Sea, and would more likely patrol areas that "bring the greatest security benefits."
In an interview with Reuters, Corey Ranslem, chief executive of maritime risk consulting and security firm Dryad Global, pointed out that there are still many unknown details about the Red Sea escort alliance, including how many warships are involved, when the warships will arrive in the Red Sea, the alliance's rules of engagement and specific protection plans.
Shipping brokerage Arrow issued a tip noting that it is unknown when and how the Red Sea Escort Alliance will begin to operate. While these measures will improve security in the Red Sea region, shipping companies will be skeptical about Red Sea navigation until Houthi attacks are significantly reduced.
Depending on the destination and speed of sailing, ships avoiding the Red Sea and diverting to the Cape of Good Hope will add two weeks to a month to transit times, according to industry sources. The cost of transportation will increase by $400,000 to $1 million per freighter.
Somali pirates: a comeback?
Just as the risks to shipping in the Red Sea have not been eliminated, the Spanish Ministry of Defense confirmed on Tuesday that the Maltese-flagged bulk carrier Ruen was hijacked off the coast of Somalia last Thursday.
EU naval surveillance shows that the Ruen has arrived in Somalia with 18 crew members from Angola, Bulgaria and Myanmar in the custody of the hijackers. The ship is managed by the Bulgarian shipping company Navibulgar.
The Ruen departed from South Korea and bound for Turkey, carrying metal on board. The ship was hijacked in the waters off the Horn of Africa, and the captain sent a distress signal to the EU naval command center.
An Indian patrol aircraft patrolling the area established communication with the Ruen while the crew was hiding in a safe house. But the hijackers then broke into the safe house and took the crew with them. The hijackers have yet to make conditions for the release of the crew, and some officials have speculated that the hijackers were Somali pirates.
If confirmed, it would be the first time since 2017 that Somali pirates have successfully hijacked a merchant ship. Last month, five attackers attempted to hijack a merchant ship in waters off Yemen but were stopped by U.S. destroyers who arrived at the scene. The U.S. Department of Defense determined that the attackers were not Houthi and may have been Somali pirates.
Since 2000, piracy has become increasingly active in Somali waters. Piracy escalated in 2006 following the start of the civil war in Somalia. The World Bank estimates that from 2005 to 2012, Somali pirates were paid more than $400 million in ransom for hijacking merchant ships.
In 2011 alone, pirates launched a record 212 attacks off Somali waters, the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, according to EU naval figures. Somali piracy has been curbed after the international community and the Somali government intensified their crackdown.
From 2018 to 2019, there were only three pirate attacks in the relevant waters, and from 2020 to the first half of this year, there were zero incidents.
Whether Somali pirates will take advantage of the Red Sea chaos to make a comeback has raised concerns in the shipping industry. Gerry Northwood, an adviser to maritime security firm MAST and a former commander of the British Navy, believes that changes in the region, reduced maritime patrols and the relaxation of the vigilance of ships have provided the conditions for Somali pirates to return to their old business.
Some EU officials believe that the resurgence of Somali pirates coincided with the Houthi Red Sea attack in Yemen and suspect that there may be pirates loyal to the Houthis. But Northwood speculated that Somali pirates were taking advantage of the chaos.
Lanslem, chief executive of maritime security firm Dryad Global, believes that the hijacking of the Ruen is an isolated incident, and that there is no sign of a full-scale resurgence of Somali pirates.
In the aftermath of the Ruen hijacking, the Joint War Risk Committee of the London Insurance Market maintained a risk rating of high risk in the waters off Somalia.