Trading must read: Most of the large technology stocks in the United States rose, and the container shipping giant suspended the Red Sea water route, and the freight rate may rise sharply

Reporter: Yang Jian Editor: Peng Shuiping

(1) Important market news

1. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.61%, the S&P 500 up 0.45%, and the Dow closing flat. The Dow continued to hit all-time intraday highs, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit new highs for the year. Most of the big tech stocks rose, with Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Netflix and Meta rising more than 2%, Microsoft rising slightly, and Tesla and Apple falling slightly. Most of the Chinese concept stocks fell, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.93%. Baidu, Tencent Music, iQiyi, and Xiaopeng Motors fell more than 1%, Alibaba fell slightly, and Weilai rose more than 4%.

2. The settlement price of international crude oil futures rose by more than 1%. WTI crude oil futures for January delivery settled up 1.46% at $72.47 a barrel. Brent crude futures for February delivery closed up 1.83% at $77.95 a barrel. Most of Europe's major stock indexes fell, with Germany's DAX 30 down 0.62%, Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.48%, France's CAC 40 down 0.37%, and Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.65%.

(2) Macro news

On December 18, the Premier of the State Council presided over an executive meeting of the State Council to listen to a report on the progress of accelerating the construction of a unified national market. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to actively and steadily promote the reform of key areas such as finance and taxation and statistics. It is necessary to set up all kinds of systems and rules that are conducive to the construction of a large unified national market, and to remove all kinds of obstacles and obstacles. Research and deploy work related to promoting the high-quality development of disease prevention and control, and do a good job in the prevention and control of infectious diseases without relaxation.

(3) Institutional perspectives

Minsheng Securities: The eve of sailing

1. Domestic: the repair of midstream manufacturing traffic and the narrowing of profit margins.

The flattening of domestic macro fundamentals is still reflected in November's social finance data: the government sector is still the main contributor to new social finance, the financing demand of enterprises has weakened significantly compared with the beginning of the year, and the year-on-year growth gap between M1 and M2, which is considered to reflect economic activity in the real estate-driven economic model, is still at a historically low level and has declined. Beneath the lackluster fundamentals, the resilience of the economy is reflected in the recovery of production-side flows, but the midstream manufacturing sector may be facing margin compression. Industrial production flows, represented by midstream manufacturing, will still recover, but will face a decline in profit margins.

2. The Federal Reserve has made a turn, but overseas inflation concerns are still there.

Fed's Powell turned dovish at the FOMC press conference, and the dot plot pointed to a 50bp rate cut in 2024. Overseas market investors are starting to trade a soft landing scenario and are pricing in more aggressive Fed rate cuts, which could lead to increased volatility in overseas markets in the future. Under the political pressure of a short-term easing of inflation in the United States and the fact that 2024 is a presidential election year in the United States, the Fed may be more concerned about the potential negative impact of monetary policy tightening on financial stability and many other aspects. However, inflation remains a concern in the United States, and price growth momentum from the services sector remains strong. At present, the job market in the United States is still tight, and the service industries represented by education, medical care, leisure and hotels are the industries that contribute the most to the new jobs.

3. Still to wait: liquidity risk or the trigger for a real shift to easing overseas.

The key factor that will really trigger the Fed's substantial easing in the future is likely to be the amplification of risks in the financial system caused by the gradual drying up of liquidity in the US financial market. On the one hand, the liquidity risk comes from the strengthening of the "pumping" of the financial system by the US government department, and on the other hand, it also comes from the continuous decline in the balance of the Fed's reverse repo facility due to the depletion of excess savings of households. Due to the fragility of finance vis-à-vis entities, the easing of financial conditions in the United States may precede a recession, which will set the stage for the formation of a "stagflationary" pattern abroad. At present, the easing of pressure on the RMB exchange rate may further open up domestic policy space.

4. Investment advice.

The current so-called "dumbbell" state will continue, and after the substantial shift in US monetary policy to easing, the overall value market is more worth looking forward to. Our recommendations are as follows: first, the upstream resource industry that benefits from the recovery of midstream manufacturing flows at the production end and has supply bottlenecks is underway, recommending oil, coal, oil transportation, copper, aluminum, and gold; Third, from a thematic investment perspective, it is recommended to focus on the robotics sector that can improve productivity and address the shortage of blue-collar workers.

(4) Industry nuggets

1. The General Office of 14 departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on carrying out pilot demonstration work on the application of network security technology, and the content of the pilot demonstration is to adapt to the new situation of digital industrialization and industrial digital development, with the security of new information infrastructure, the security of digital application scenarios, and the improvement of basic security capabilities as the main line, facing the needs of network and data security in important industries such as public communication and information services, human resources and social security, water conservancy, and health, from basic network security, cloud computing security, artificial intelligence security, 13 key directions such as big data security, and select a number of pilot demonstration projects with advanced technology and remarkable application results. According to market research institutes, the global cybersecurity market size will continue to grow rapidly in the coming years and is expected to reach $247 billion by 2023. Related concept stocks include Kechuang Information, Meiya Pico, Century Hengtong, etc.

2. Recently, many ships in the Red Sea waters have been attacked, and container shipping giants have successively suspended regional routes. Recently, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM Group, Mediterranean Shipping and other container shipping giants have successively issued statements to suspend all their container transportation through the Red Sea until further notice. It is worth mentioning that the Panama Canal, another important route in the world, has also been forced to drop significantly in recent months due to its early dryness, and if the situation in the region deteriorates further, the detour or suspension of ships will have a great impact on the global supply chain. The increased probability of an attack on Red Sea vessels could result in 30% of the container fleet having to be diverted. Analysts at Norwegian analyst agency Xeneta expect ocean freight rates to rise by as much as 100%, depending on the size and duration of the disruption to the Suez Canal route. A-share related concept stocks include China Merchants Shipping, COSCO SHIPPING Special and so on.

3. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Post Bureau recently issued the "Action Plan for Further Promoting the Green Transformation of Express Packaging", making it clear that by the end of 2025, the green packaging standard system for express delivery will be fully established, and the green transformation of express packaging will be basically realized. The "Action Plan" deploys 7 major actions, including special guidance for the reduction of express packaging, leading by e-commerce platform enterprises, and green upgrading of the express packaging supply chain. The agency conservatively estimates that China's express delivery business volume will reach 135.5 billion pieces in 2025. With the improvement of degradable plastic technology, production capacity, policy implementation and consumer awareness, assuming that by 2025, the alternative market share of degradable plastics will reach 70%, and the actual degradable plastic alternative market space in the express industry will reach 1 million tons, with a market size of about 30 billion yuan. Concept stocks include Jusailong, Nanjing Julong, etc.

National Business Daily