Introduction
The new material industry in mainland China is in the transition stage from self-sufficiency in low-end products to independent research and development and import substitution of high-end products; domestic high-end new material technology and production are weak, although the production capacity has been significantly increased in recent years, but it has failed to meet the domestic demand for high-end products, and the road to becoming a material power has a long way to go.
➢ One of the directions of new materials - lightweight materials. With its excellent performance, it is used in many fields such as aerospace and automotive. The carbon fiber industry in mainland China has the problems of low capacity utilization and few high-end products. Realizing the dual autonomy of large-scale production and application development of carbon fiber is the key to enhancing the mainland's national defense strength and ensuring the stability of the supply chain. Plates are used in the heaviest body of automobiles and are a key material to achieve lightweight goals. Continental's aluminium alloy body panels, which are produced in a complex process, have already begun to be exported. The localization of aluminum alloy body panels is the key to improving the competitiveness of the continental automotive industry and helping the country achieve its energy conservation and emission reduction goals.
➢ New Materials Direction 2 - Aerospace Materials. It has high application value in many cutting-edge fields such as aerospace, high-end electronic components, and semiconductors. Continental is still facing a "bottleneck" problem in high-end PI films and other high-end PI products. It is another new type of high-performance fiber developed after carbon fiber. From a global point of view, silicon carbide fiber technology is still developing rapidly and iterating, and Chinese companies are expected to usher in the opportunity of overtaking in corners.
➢ The third direction of new materials - semiconductor materials. It is the main raw material for semiconductor devices and solar cells. Most of the silicon wafer production capacity for photovoltaic is concentrated in the mainland, and the production technology level is leading in the world. The manufacturing process of semiconductor silicon wafers is more complex, and some domestic companies are trying to break down technical barriers. In recent years, the material has been continuously penetrated in the fields of electric vehicles, photovoltaics, smart grids, etc., and has strong downstream demand. It is one of the core materials of integrated circuits, and the compound growth rate of the global target market size from 2013 to 2020 is 14%.
➢ The fourth direction of new materials - new plastics. It is subject to the technical barriers of foreign enterprises for raw material production technology. Under the background of "carbon neutrality" and "plastic instead of steel" policies, the domestic substitution of this material is of great significance to the development and progress of the mainland's new energy industry, electronic communications, transportation and other fields. It is a special engineering plastic with excellent physical and chemical properties, which has made an important contribution to the lightweight of automobiles and the prevention and control of air pollution. Because of its excellent mechanical and environmental protection characteristics, it is widely used in many fields such as medical equipment and 3D printing, but it is highly dependent on imports.
➢ The fifth direction of new materials - new materials for electronic and electrical capacitors. It is the key to the manufacture of thick film resistors and other electronic components, and is widely used in photovoltaic, aviation, military and other fields. It can be widely used in communications, industry, automobiles and other fields, among which MLCC, as the electronic ceramic with the largest output and demand, matches the development trend of the electronic components market and the national policy guidance.
➢ New material direction 6 - multi-purpose new materials. It is widely used in electrical machinery, IT, automobiles, military industry, etc., and the global market demand and consumption of modified polyphenylene ether are increasing year by year. The degree of industrial concentration is relatively high, and the current self-sufficiency rate of domestic para-aramid production capacity is about 20%, and the dependence on imports is serious. Superabsorbent resins (SAP) are characterized by good water absorption, affordability, and safety, and the global demand for SAP is expected to grow to 4.4 million tons by 2025. With the aging trend of the domestic population and the liberalization of education policies, the size of China's SAP market is expected to reach 14.51 billion yuan in 2023.
➢ New Materials Direction No. 7 - Optical and Electronic Chemicals. Widely used in electronic display, construction, automobiles, new energy, etc., the mainland has achieved domestic substitution in the field of low-end optical films. In the field of high-end optical films, mainland enterprises are seeking technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrading through endogenous and epitaxial methods. It is a cutting-edge material used in semiconductor manufacturing, PCB, and panel industries. At present, the proportion of photoresist localization in the mainland is very low, and high-end semiconductor photoresist is basically completely dependent on imports, and breaking through the overseas technology monopoly of photoresist has become a key link in the frontier research of mainland science and technology. It is a representative of the world's new generation of display technology, and is expected to become a mainstream display technology in the field of mobile phone panels. Mainland manufacturers are actively expanding production in the OLED panel industry, and the production capacity will grow rapidly in the future, and the potential demand for localized OLED materials is strong. In the field of high-value luminescent material products, the mainland has initially achieved domestic substitution, and some subdivided products have been supplied to domestic panel manufacturers in large quantities, but there is still a gap between technology and production capacity and the international leading level, and there is still a lot of room for enhancement in international competitiveness.
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overview
1.1. Material history
The mainland's new material industry is in the transition stage from self-sufficiency in low-end products to independent research and development and import substitution of high-end products, and is located in the second echelon of the global new material industry, and there is still a certain gap with the United States, Japan and other advantageous enterprises. In 2020, the total output value of new materials in mainland China reached 5.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 15% over the previous year, and it is expected that the total output value of the new materials industry will increase to 10 trillion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of about 13.5%. The industrial structure is mainly distributed with special functional materials, modern polymer materials and high-end metal structural materials, accounting for 32%, 24% and 19% respectively.
The agglomeration effect of the new material industry is significant, and the geographical distribution of subdivision directions and fields has its own emphasis. Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Guangdong provinces have a new energy scale of more than 1,000 billion, followed by Fujian, Anhui, and Hubei, with a scale of more than 500 billion. The new material industry in the Yangtze River Delta focuses on new energy vehicles, biology, electronics and other fields, the Pearl River Delta focuses on the research and development of high-performance composite materials, and the Bohai Rim region attaches more importance to special materials and cutting-edge materials.
With the support of national policies for new materials and their downstream products in the fields of aerospace, military, photovoltaic electronics and biomedicine, the market demand continues to expand, and the requirements for product performance continue to improve. The rapid development of the new material industry has promoted the strong stickiness and multidisciplinary integration of new material enterprises and upstream and downstream industries, and many leading new materials enterprises in mainland China have won domestic downstream customers who have cooperated with foreign leading manufacturers by reducing costs, providing technology equivalent to or better than the world's leading enterprises and higher quality, and formed a stable cooperative relationship, which is the general trend when the global epidemic trend has not abated and foreign manufacturers have frequent emergencies. The multidisciplinary integration has also contributed to the cultivation of relevant new material talents in mainland China, and the introduction of multi-department integrated R&D and production policies for enterprises.
In addition, with the introduction of domestic and international policies for environmental protection and energy-saving products, the mainland new material industry also attaches great importance to the reduction of consumption and pollution in the production process of new materials, and the improvement of product efficiency and comprehensive application capabilities.
Although the production capacity has been significantly increased in recent years, it has failed to meet the domestic demand for high-end products, and the road to becoming a material power has a long way to go. According to the 2019 report of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 32% of the key materials in the mainland new materials industry are still in a blank state, and 52% of the key new materials need to be imported, with a high dependence on imports, especially in the fields of intelligent terminal processors, manufacturing and testing equipment, and high-end special chips, with import dependence of 70%, 95%, and 95% respectively, and there is a huge room for localization.
Downstream consumer electronics, new energy, semiconductors, carbon fiber and other industries have accelerated their transfer to China, and the demand for localization of new materials is urgent, and import substitution will continue to promote the future development of investment in the mainland's new material industry. Investment in the field of new materials in mainland China increased significantly from 2013 to 2017, and then declined, due to the high technical barriers to the development of high-end materials, long R&D cycles, large capital requirements, and difficulty in highlighting cost advantages. The launch of the Science and Technology Innovation Board is supporting a number of start-up new material enterprises, opening up their financing channels, encouraging enterprises to increase R&D and innovation, thereby promoting the transformation and upgrading of the overall industry.
The R&D capabilities and market share of new material enterprises determine the international status of the mainland new material industry. The development of the new material industry is of far-reaching significance to the development of the mainland's industry, and its maturity determines the advanced level of the mainland's technology and equipment, and is an important support for the development of strategic emerging industries under the guidance of the mainland's policy.
1.2. The 14th Five-Year Plan for New Materials
The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes that new materials, as one of the seven strategic emerging industries in the mainland and one of the key development areas of "Made in China 2025", will be regarded as the key industry with the most development potential and can have a significant impact on the mainland's international competitiveness during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The "14th Five-Year Plan" makes a statement on the problems of the mainland's new material industry compared with developed countries, such as weak upstream and downstream connectivity, weak innovation consciousness and poor initiative. The "14th Five-Year Plan" believes that the mainland should give full play to the synergistic effect and improve the development system of the new materials industry by building suitable and advantageous industrial clusters. At the same time, the plan also makes it clear that the mainland needs to change the idea of pursuing high-speed growth, turn to high-quality development, improve the self-sufficiency rate, strengthen domestic substitution, so that the "new kinetic energy" role of the transformation and upgrading of the new material industry can be exerted, and it will be among the middle and high-end ranks of the industry.
The 14th Five-Year Plan provides policy support for the development of new materials. On March 13, 2021, the "Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035" was released, which clearly put forward the in-depth implementation of the strategy of manufacturing power, and made clear instructions for the development of high-end new materials: promote breakthroughs in advanced metals and inorganic non-metallic materials such as high-end rare earth functional materials, high-quality special steels, high-performance alloys, high-temperature alloys, high-purity rare metal materials, high-performance ceramics, electronic glass, etc., and strengthen carbon fiber, The R&D and application of high-performance fibers such as aramid and their composite materials, bio-based and biomedical materials, and accelerate the breakthrough of key technologies in high-performance resins such as metallocene polyethylene and electronic high-purity materials such as photoresists for integrated circuits.
At the same time, the plan proposes to develop and expand strategic emerging industries, focusing on the new generation of information technology, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, new energy vehicles, green environmental protection, aerospace, marine equipment and other strategic emerging industries, accelerate the innovation and application of key core technologies, enhance the ability to support factors, and cultivate and expand new momentum for industrial development.
1.3. Atlas of new materials
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One of the directions of new materials - lightweight materials
2.1. Carbon fiber
Carbon fiber materials are used in aerospace, wind power, sports and leisure, automobiles and other fields with their excellent performance, and are the most widely used and market-oriented materials in the field of new materials, and are known as the "king of new materials". The global carbon fiber market demand has grown rapidly in recent years, and the mainland has also seized the opportunity to develop into the world's second largest carbon fiber producer. However, compared with foreign countries, the mainland carbon fiber industry still has the problems of low capacity utilization, few high-end products, and difficult application development, and the downstream industry still relies heavily on imported carbon fiber products. In the current international environment, the realization of carbon fiber large-scale production and application development is the key to enhance the strength of the mainland's national defense and manufacturing industry and ensure the stability of the supply chain.
Carbon fiber is an inorganic fiber with a carbon backbone structure of more than 90% carbon content formed by cracking and carbonization of organic fibers such as polyacrylonitrile (PAN) (or asphalt and viscose) in a high-temperature environment, and was produced as a high-performance material in the 60s of the last century. Carbon fiber has excellent mechanical properties and chemical stability: As the fiber with the highest specific strength (strength specific density) and the highest specific stiffness (modulus specific density) among the high-performance fibers currently achieved mass production, carbon fiber is an ideal material for aerospace, wind turbine blades, new energy vehicles and other fields with lightweight needs. Corrosion resistance, high temperature resistance, and low coefficient of expansion make it an alternative to metal materials in harsh environments, and its electrical and thermal conductivity expands its application in the field of communication electronics.
According to the number of monofilaments in each bundle of carbon fiber, carbon fiber is generally divided into two categories: small tow and large tow. Small tows are generally used in high-tech fields such as aerospace and military industry, as well as high-end sporting goods, while large tows are lower cost and are often used in basic industries, including civil engineering and construction, transportation and energy equipment.
In 2020, the global operating capacity of carbon fiber was 171,650 tons, an increase of 16,750 tons compared to 2019, a growth rate of 10.8%. The United States, China, and Japan accounted for the main production capacity, accounting for 21.7%, 21.1%, and 17.0%, respectively. At present, major producers still have about 80,000 tons/year of unfinished expansion plans, which also reflects the optimistic expectations of manufacturers for the industry's prospects.
On the demand side, the four major application industries of the carbon fiber market are aerospace, wind power blades, sports and leisure, and automobiles, and the demand for carbon fiber in the four major downstream industries in 2020 accounted for more than 70%, and the output value accounted for more than 76%.
Since 2015, the industry estimates that the world's carbon fiber demand has maintained a growth rate of about 12%, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the global demand for carbon fiber in 2020 totaled 107,000 tons, an increase of only 3% compared with 2019. Total sales were approximately $2.615 billion, down 8.8% year-over-year, mainly due to the impact of the pandemic-related setback in the aviation industry, which affected sales of high-value, high-performance carbon fiber. The wind power sector has become the main driving force for the industry to maintain growth, and the demand for carbon fiber has maintained an annual growth rate of 20% despite the epidemic.
In the short term, the recovery of the world's aviation industry in 2021 and the massive laying of wind power equipment can bring the carbon fiber market back to a path of rapid growth. In the long term, the aviation industry will need to digest excess capacity in 2020, and wind power will continue to be the main driver of carbon fiber market growth in the future. In October 2020, representatives of more than 400 wind energy companies around the world jointly issued the Beijing Declaration on Wind Energy, planning to add more than 50 million kilowatts of new installed capacity from 2020 to 2025. In the context of the expansion of major wind power manufacturers, the application of carbon fiber in wind turbines has not yet been rolled out on a large scale, and only the world's wind power giant Vestas has formed a large-scale application. With the application and development of carbon fiber materials by other wind power companies, the demand for carbon fiber in the wind power industry may increase exponentially. It is estimated that by 2025, the total world demand for carbon fiber will exceed 200,000 tons, equivalent to an annual growth rate of 13.3%.
In addition, there is a lot of potential for carbon fiber in other applications. Taking the main competitor aluminum alloy as an example, carbon fiber and aluminum alloy are both lightweight materials that replace steel, carbon fiber has advantages in strength, chemical stability and other properties, and has better performance than aluminum alloy in aircraft parts, high-performance car frames, bicycle racks and other products. However, due to the high price, the current application of carbon fiber is mostly limited to high value-added products. In 2016, the annual demand for aluminum in the world was about 500-600 times that of carbon fiber, and the output value of the industry was about 50 times, and the demand for aluminum has also grown rapidly in recent years thanks to the development of the automobile industry. With the advancement of technology to reduce the cost of low-carbon fiber, there is still a broad market space for carbon fiber in the future.
As a capital-intensive and technology-intensive industry, the carbon fiber industry has concentrated its core carbon fiber production technology in Japan, the United States and Europe. China and South Korea are among the fast-growing industrial regions in recent years.
In terms of enterprises, Japan's Toray (Toray) is obviously leading the industry in terms of technology and production capacity after the acquisition of Zoltech in the United States, with about 30% of the world's production capacity, and is an absolute leading enterprise. Other major overseas manufacturers include Toho/Teijin of Japan, MCCFC of Japan, Hexcel of the United States, West Delhi of Germany (SGL), Formosa Plastics (FPC), etc. As the world's second largest carbon fiber producer, China has also emerged carbon fiber production enterprises such as Jilin Carbon Valley, Zhongfu Shenying, Guangwei Composites, etc., but in general, there are more low-end products, production capacity is more scattered, and there are few achievements in the field of high-performance carbon fiber, and there is still a large distance from the industry giants.
The future carbon fiber market may have many changes due to regional policies and investment environment. Japanese companies take the lead in implementing the globalization strategy, in Europe and the United States, where carbon fiber production technology and industrial chain ecology are complete, have laid out production lines, and now overseas production capacity has exceeded Japan's local production capacity, and is expected to maintain the industry leader's position; American companies benefit from the advantages of local enterprises, control the US military carbon fiber market, while enjoying extremely low energy costs, and the future development is also guaranteed; South Korean enterprises have undertaken the industrial transfer of Toray of Japan, and the technology has achieved leapfrogging, and is gradually having a louder and louder voice in the world carbon fiber market; European enterprises are limited by energy prices and strict environmental protection policies, and can only produce high value-added carbon fiberChinese companies are currently willing to expand and have announced plans to expand production, but the future still depends on technological breakthroughs and the development of China's carbon fiber application market.
For many years, the domestic carbon fiber industry in the mainland has been characterized by "many enterprises, large demand, high production capacity and low output", mainly due to the low demand for domestic carbon fiber due to the competitive disadvantages of foreign products, coupled with the backwardness of enterprise technology, which leads to the inability to fully release production capacity. In terms of product development and application, it has been "crossing the river by touching Toray in Japan" for a long time, mainly imitation, and relatively lacking in innovation. As a strategic material that the country focuses on, the industrial development of carbon fiber is directly related to the stability of the mainland's national defense and manufacturing industry, and is an important development goal to highlight the progress of the mainland's innovation ability and R&D ability and ensure the security of the people's livelihood supply chain.
Under unfavorable conditions, some domestic enterprises seized the opportunity of the explosive growth of carbon fiber demand after 2016, achieved technological breakthroughs, completed the domestic substitution of some carbon fiber products, and promoted the mainland to become the world's second largest carbon fiber producer. In 2020, China's total demand for carbon fiber was 48,801 tons, an increase of 29% compared with 2019 and 19,563 tons in 2016, with a compound annual growth rate of 20%, of which the supply of domestic carbon fiber was 18,450 tons, an increase of 53.8% compared with 2019, and the domestic supply rate of carbon fiber also increased from 31.7% to 37.8%. In 2020, due to the tightening of policies in the United States and Japan, the export of carbon fiber to China will be tightened, and it is not only a trend but also an urgent task for the mainland carbon fiber industry to increase its self-sufficiency rate and achieve domestic substitution.
Although the development trend of the carbon fiber industry in the mainland is gratifying, from the perspective of comprehensive industrial development, the mainland can still only be at the level of the middle of the world, which is mainly reflected in the fact that the carbon fiber application market in the mainland is quite different from the international market. The proportion of low value-added products such as the sports and leisure industry in the continental carbon fiber application is relatively high, and sports equipment accounts for 90% of the world's output, which is the absolute pillar of the domestic carbon fiber application market. Although the aviation industry and wind power in the four major application industries of carbon fiber have formed a certain scale, the proportion is still low compared with foreign countries. The application of carbon fiber in the automotive industry, pressure vessels and other industries has just started and has not yet ushered in a period of rapid development. Realizing the dual progress of carbon fiber production capacity and application, and improving the carbon fiber industry chain, is the top priority to ensure the development of the entire industry and enhance the strength of the mainland's manufacturing industry.
In 2018, the 8,000 tons of carbon fiber used in the production of wind turbine blades in mainland China all relied on imports, and most of the customers were abroad, and in 2019, 1,000 tons came from domestic suppliers, achieving a breakthrough of zero. Wind turbine blade carbon fiber has grown into tens of thousands of tons of market, if domestic enterprises can break through the dependence on foreign raw materials in production, and complete a breakthrough in application, can greatly improve the profitability of domestic carbon fiber enterprises, improve the status of China's carbon fiber industry in the world, is a great boost to China's carbon fiber industry.
As a key material related to the national economy, the state has issued a series of policies to support the progress of carbon fiber and carbon fiber composite materials, realize the localization, autonomy and application diversification of carbon fiber, realize the internal circulation of carbon fiber industry chain, and promote the healthy development of carbon fiber industry.
2.2. Aluminum alloy automobile body panel
Aluminum alloy is the most widely used alloy in industry, and has been widely used in aviation, aerospace, automotive, machinery manufacturing, shipbuilding and chemical industries. Under the guidance of the national policy of energy conservation and emission reduction, it is difficult for the automotive industry to meet the increasingly stringent national fuel emission standards only by designing and optimizing the energy consumption of automobiles, so the lightweight of automobiles is the development direction determined by the industry. Aluminum alloy is the main material for lightweight in the automotive industry, among which aluminum alloy body sheet (ABS) is used in the heaviest body of automobiles and is the key material to achieve the goal of lightweight. At present, the mainland has gradually opened up the domestic automotive aluminum alloy market, and even some enterprises have begun to export, among which domestic enterprises and foreign companies have production in domestic factories. The localization of aluminum alloy body panels is the key to improving the competitiveness of the mainland automotive industry and helping the country achieve its energy conservation and emission reduction goals.
Aluminum alloy is the product of aluminum, magnesium, copper, silicon, manganese and other metal elements, and is still 50% better than steel structure under the condition of maintaining the same strength as steel structure. Aluminum alloy has good plasticity, can be processed into various profiles, and has excellent electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity and corrosion resistance. Aluminium is the most abundant metal element in nature, and the raw material mineral is easily available. At present, aluminum is widely used in the industry, and the amount of use is second only to steel. In addition, the recycling rate of aluminum alloy reaches 80%, which is less damaging to the environment, and is an ideal lightweight material, which is widely used in manufacturing industries such as aircraft, automobiles, trains, and ships.
In order to combat climate change and promote green development, countries have formulated strict vehicle emission standards to drive the automotive industry towards environmental protection. Taking China as an example, China plans to reduce the average fuel consumption of domestic passenger cars from 5.6L/km in 2019 to 2L/km by 2035, and reduce the total carbon emissions of vehicles by 20%.
As an effective method to optimize vehicle energy consumption, automobile lightweight has become the key development direction of energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry. According to the data of the World Aluminum Association, every 10% reduction in the weight of the car can reduce emissions by 6%-8%, and for every 100kg of weight reduction, the fuel consumption of the car can be reduced by 0.4-0.5 liters per 100 kilometers.
There are four main types of aluminum alloys for automobiles: cast aluminum, forged aluminum, extruded aluminum, and rolled aluminum. The most used is cast aluminum, accounting for more than 70%. Aluminium body panels are rolled aluminum, which accounts for about 10%-15% of the amount of aluminium used in automobiles, and can be used to produce many large parts of car bodies, such as hoods.
China is the world's largest producer of primary aluminum and aluminum alloys. At present, the mainland has formed a scale in the production and use of automotive aluminum alloy parts, but the R&D and production of aluminum alloy body panels have made slow progress and rely heavily on imports. The car body accounts for about 30% of the total weight of the car, is the heaviest component in the car, and the use of aluminum alloy plates instead of traditional steel plates to produce the interior and exterior plates of the car can reduce the weight of the whole vehicle by up to about 10%, which shows that aluminum alloy body panels are important components for automobile lightweight.
In 2020, the annual production capacity of global automotive aluminum strip will be around 3.9 million tons, concentrated in North America, Europe and Asia, and China's production capacity will account for about 26.2% of the world's total, with an annual production capacity of about 1.02 million tons, ranking second in the world. From the perspective of production and scheduling plans, there are few orders, low demand, and most of the products are in the R&D and verification stage (some products are not up to standard, so the number of orders is low), and the comprehensive operating rate in 2020 is only 20%, and the capacity utilization rate is seriously low.
Under the general trend of increasing demand for automotive lightweight, the demand for automotive aluminum has a lot of room for growth. At present, the amount of aluminum used in the automobile industry accounts for 20%-40% of the weight of the whole vehicle, and the aluminum consumption of a single vehicle is 120-200 kg. At present, the sales volume of fuel vehicles accounts for more than 90% of the market share, and it is the main force of automobile aluminum consumption. In the future, the new energy vehicle market will become the main incremental market for automotive aluminum: many governments have expressed their desire to increase the market share of new energy vehicles to 20% or more by 2025, and pure electric vehicles, as the main new energy vehicle variety, consume about 30kg more aluminum per vehicle than that of fuel vehicles. From 2018 to 2020, global NEV sales jumped from about 2 million to 3.31 million units, and are expected to grow to 10 million units by 2025.
Automotive aluminum sheet is the fastest-growing segment of automotive aluminum components: Duckerworldwide estimates that the average aluminum used in North American vehicles increased by about 18% between 2015 and 2020, with an average increase of 163% for "four doors and two covers" during this period. In North America, the aluminization rate of vehicle hoods will increase from 50% in 2015 to 63% in 2020 and may exceed 80% in 2025, and the aluminization rate of doors will increase from 5% in 2015 to 21% in 2020 and may exceed 30% by 2025. Under the good expectation of the demand side, it is expected that the world's demand for automotive aluminum sheet will increase from the current 2.5 million tons to more than 4 million tons by 2025.
At present, the effective production capacity of automotive aluminum sheet in the world is mainly distributed in Europe, North America and Japan. The larger companies include Hydro Aluminium and AMAG, Alcoa, Constellium, Novelis, Special Alloys, Kobe Steel, UACJ and others.
After years of development and the advantages of global layout, American companies have gradually achieved a leading position in the market. Several major U.S. companies have invested in the world's major automobile producing areas to set up automotive aluminum sheet factories to occupy the market by using the advantages of the supply chain. European companies are struggling to compete in the market, with Norway's Hydro announcing the sale of its rolled aluminium production line in March, Japanese companies embracing American companies and building factories together, and Kobe Steel's market position further declined in 2017 following a fraud scandal.
Since 2013, Chinese companies have successively started to research and develop aluminum sheets for automobiles, and have been supplied to domestic and foreign car companies in a small range. However, at present, 90% of the output of domestic manufacturers is inner plates, and the production capacity of outer plates with complex production technology is dominated by joint venture manufacturers Novelis and Kobe Steel. The increase in the production capacity of high-performance automotive aluminum sheet is the key to enhancing the competitiveness of mainland enterprises.
China's automobile lightweight started less than ten years, and the research on automotive aluminum is lagging behind. In the research and development of automotive aluminum plates, there are problems of high technical difficulty, large capital investment and slow product certification. Most of the domestic production enterprises do not have a technical foundation, the entire production line production equipment needs to be imported, the production process is mostly in the imitation of foreign stage, and foreign products still have a greater competitive advantage. As the fastest growing direction in the field of automotive lightweight, ensuring its localization is the key to helping the upgrading of the continent's automobile industry and completing the task of energy conservation and emission reduction in the continent.
Continental's first body aluminum sheet production line was invested and built by the American company Novelis in 2012 and completed in 2014, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons. However, at that time, the application of domestic automotive aluminum plate was not yet popularized, and the products could only be supplied to mid-to-high-end joint venture vehicles, and the demand was low for a long time. With the country's emphasis on environmental protection and the development of the automobile industry in recent years, the demand for aluminum sheet has increased significantly. In 2020, the annual production of domestic automobiles was about 25 million units. According to the calculation of the aluminization rate of automobiles of 30% and the proportion of automotive aluminum sheets in 10% of automotive aluminum products, the demand for automotive aluminum sheets in mainland China in 2020 will be about 380,000 tons. The total output of domestic automotive aluminum sheet manufacturers is about 186,000 tons, and the self-sufficiency rate of automotive aluminum sheet will reach 48.95% in 2020.
The rapid development of new energy vehicles has given domestic enterprises opportunities: the annual output of new energy vehicles reached 1.367 million units in 2020, with a compound growth rate of 11.1% since 2018. With the country's strong support for the new energy vehicle industry, some provinces and cities have begun to formulate a timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles, and the sales of new energy vehicles will further increase. In 2020, the average amount of aluminum used in a single vehicle in mainland China is only 130 kg, and the amount of aluminum used in domestic new energy vehicles is only 160 kg, which is far from 179 kg in Europe and 211 kg in North America.
According to the estimation of the World Aluminum Association, in 2025, the amount of domestic automotive aluminum will exceed 180kg per vehicle, and the annual amount of automotive aluminum will exceed 7 million tons, of which the proportion of rolled aluminum such as aluminum plate will increase from the current 13% to 18%, and the annual demand for domestic automotive aluminum plate will reach 600,000 tons in 2025 according to the calculation that automotive aluminum plate accounts for 50% of rolled aluminum.
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The second direction of new materials - aerospace materials
3.1. Polyimide
Polyimide (PI) materials have high application value in many cutting-edge fields such as aerospace, high-end electronic components, and semiconductors, and play an important role in material update and iteration. At present, the global polyimide market demand is growing, but the mass production of many high-end PI products and special functional PI products is still monopolized by a few developed countries, and the related production technology is strictly protected. At present, Continental has achieved large-scale production in the field of low-end PI film and PI fiber, and has gained global competitiveness in the field of electrical-grade PI film. However, high-end PI films and other high-end PI products still face the problem of "stuck" or insufficient production capacity, resulting in a significant structural imbalance between supply and demand. Breaking through the large-scale mass production of high-end polyimide products is of great significance to the upgrading of the mainland's manufacturing industry, the upgrading of armaments, and the independence and controllability.
Polyimide (PI) is an organic polymer material with outstanding comprehensive properties, and is known as "one of the most promising engineering plastics in the 21st century". The material has a wide range of operating temperatures, can work for a long time in the environment of -200~300°C, and can withstand high temperatures above 400°C for a short time. Polyimide has no obvious melting point and is currently the most high-temperature resistant polymer material that can be applied practically. At the same time, the material also has the characteristics of high dielectric strength, solvent resistance, radiation resistance, thermal insulation, non-toxic, sound absorption and noise reduction, and easy installation and maintenance. At present, polyimide has been widely used in aerospace, shipbuilding, semiconductor, electronics industry, nanomaterials, flexible display, laser and other fields. Depending on the specific product form, polyimide can be subdivided into PI foam, PI film, PI fiber, PI matrix composite, PSPI and other products.
In 2017, the total global polyimide production reached about 149,000 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of about 4.98% between 2010 and 2017. In the same year, global polyimide consumption reached 147,000 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of about 4.92% between 2010 and 2017. However, due to the differences in the technical level and leading industries of different countries, the structure of polyimide products produced in different countries is obviously different. Developed countries represented by the United States and Japan have relatively complete technical reserves and industrial layout, and have the ability to produce a variety of polyimide products on a large scale. China's polyimide products are dominated by PI film, which has expanded rapidly since 2010, and according to the data of the Toubao Research Institute, PI film accounts for more than 70% of the mainland's polyimide production. At present, the shipment scale of other domestic products is relatively small, or still in the research and development stage.
China's polyimide industry is in a period of rapid growth, and the growth rate is higher than the global level. According to the data of the Toubao Research Institute, the market size of polyimide in mainland China in 2019 was about 13.50 billion yuan. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of polyimide in the downstream field, the market size of polyimide in China is expected to reach 20.30 billion yuan by 2024, and the compound annual growth rate is expected to reach 8.5% between 2019 and 2024.
PI film is the largest polyimide segment by market size. Since 2010, the rapid development of smartphones, electronic displays, flexible circuit boards and other fields has driven the rapid development of the PI film industry. Driven by the innovation cycle of 5G and consumer electronics, antenna materials, electronic components, flexible displays and other fields are expected to maintain strong development momentum. In addition, the increasing investment in the aerospace field in major countries will drive the demand for high-performance specialty PI membranes.
In the field of PI foam, the current products mainly meet the needs of military ships and aircraft, and also have certain use value in the civil aviation industry, luxury cruise ships, and liquefied natural gas ships. Compared with polyimide film, polyimide foam material has a higher military sensitivity, and the technical blockade of developed countries is greater. With the steady increase in military spending of major countries around the world, the penetration rate of polyimide foam materials in the process of military product upgrading is expected to gradually increase, driving the steady expansion of the market in this field.
PI film is the most dominant polyimide product, and there is currently an oligopoly competitive landscape in this field, with more than 90% of the market share in the hands of manufacturers in the United States, Japan and South Korea. Industry oligarchs in developed countries strictly protect the production technology and production process of PI film. Dupont, Ube Industries, Kaneka, Mitsubishi Gas MGC, PI Advanced Materials (formerly SKPI) and Taimide are the world's leading producers of polyimide films. The production of high-performance PI membrane requires strict equipment customization, production technology, technical personnel, etc., and the product has the characteristics of customization and differentiation. Manufacturers need to accumulate a lot of experience and invest in R&D to produce high-performance PI films. As a result, the barriers to entry for high-performance, high-value PI membranes are high.
The market for other polyimide products is similar to the PI film market, with the main market share in the hands of a small number of companies, and the market pattern of oligopolistic competition is dominated by well-known overseas companies. Among them, the production of photosensitive polyimide is basically monopolized by Japanese and American companies.
On the whole, although mainland universities, research institutes, and leading companies in many fields have laid out the research and development of various types of polyimide materials. However, in the manufacture of high-performance, special-purpose polyimide materials, the mainland still lags significantly behind the developed countries. High-end polyimide materials have very high application value in cutting-edge industries such as aerospace, military industry, semiconductor, and high-end electronic manufacturing, and the potential demand is strong in the future. Therefore, the mass production of a variety of high-end polyimide materials is an important step to ensure the security of the mainland supply chain, independent and controllable, enhance national defense strength, and promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry.
In the field of PI foam, there is a clear gap between China and developed countries in terms of technology research and development and production, and many research and practice activities are still in their infancy, and the large-scale production process needs to be further improved. The institutions involved in the research and development of PI foam in mainland China mainly include Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo Institute of Materials, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tiansheng New Materials, Kangda New Materials, Qingdao Ocean, etc. Among them, Kangda New Materials and Qingdao Marine two polyimide foam products have passed the military appraisal and have made substantial progress.
In the context of the strict blockade of PI foam technology in developed countries, there is an obvious demand gap for domestic PI foam in mainland China. In terms of naval vessels, the U.S. Navy has reduced the weight of ships on the basis of heat resistance, flame retardancy, and radiation resistance through the use of PI foam. At present, rock wool is widely used as a fireproof insulation material for ships, and there is a significant gap between the material performance and weight and PI foam. On the aircraft side, PI foam can be used for aircraft thermal insulation, shock absorption and noise reduction. The world situation is changing, and the importance of China's national defense and security is increasing day by day, and it is the general trend for the mainland to widely use PI bubble for upgrading in the field of aircraft and ships in the future.
In the field of PI fibers, research in mainland China began in the 70s of the last century, when the Shanghai Institute of Synthetic Fibers and the East China Institute of Chemical Technology were the first to achieve small-scale mass production. In 2006, the performance of PI fiber independently developed by Changchun Yinghua of the Chinese Academy of Sciences surpassed that of Kevlar-49 of DuPont in the United States. In 2010, Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry of the Chinese Academy of Sciences cooperated with Changchun Gaoqi Polyimide Materials Co., Ltd. to carry out the industrialization of PI fiber. According to the data of Xinsijie Industry Research Center, in 2013, the annual production capacity of Changchun Gaoqi PI fiber has reached 1,000 tons. In addition, Jiangsu Aoshen New Materials, Jiangsu Xiannuo, Keju New Materials and other companies have made important breakthroughs in production technology in the field of PI fiber, and the key performance indicators have been further improved. With the enhancement of the performance of domestic PI fiber and the reduction of production costs, the demand for PI fiber in the fields of high-temperature filter materials, flame retardant materials, and special protection is expected to achieve breakthroughs in the future. According to the forecast of Xinsijie Industry Research Institute, the domestic demand for PI fiber will reach 4,800 tons in 2024.
In the field of PI film, the mainland is one of the first countries in the world to lay out. Since the 70s of the 20th century, Continental has been experimenting with the production process of PI films in-house. In 1993, Shenzhen Xingbang Electrical Equipment completed the first industrial production line of PI film in China. Up to now, dozens of domestic enterprises such as Guilin Electric, Shandong Wanda Microelectronics, Zhuzhou Times, Shenzhen Ruihuatai and so on have the production capacity or planned production of PI films. In the field of electrical-grade PI films, which are relatively simple to manufacture, Continental has already achieved large-scale production and is one of the world's leading product quality. At present, such products are mainly used in the production of insulating materials and flexible copper clad laminates (FCCL). In the context of the transfer of the global electronics industry chain to Chinese mainland, the rapid development of the mainland electronics industry in recent years has created a huge market space for PI films.
From 2010 to 2019, China's polyimide film maintained a trend of rapid expansion, with many companies entering the field of PI film production, and established manufacturers also carrying out multiple rounds of capacity upgrades and equipment transformations. In ten years, Continental's PI film production capacity has expanded from 2,200 tons to 8,910 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.8%.
However, due to the limited development level of raw materials, equipment and other links in the mainland, the manufacturing level of domestic high-end PI membranes is still significantly behind that of developed countries. At present, there is a demand gap for high-end PI membranes in mainland China, and the market is characterized by a structural imbalance between supply and demand. In the field of electronic grade PI film, the mainland is quite different from foreign manufacturers in terms of production capacity and quality. According to the Toubao Research Institute, more than 80% of Continental's electronic-grade PI films rely on imports. Therefore, at present, there is a problem of "stuck neck" in high-end manufacturing fields such as aerospace in China. With an oligopoly position, developed countries such as the United States and Japan have the pricing power of global electronic-grade PI films, obtain high profits, and pose a certain threat to the independent and controllable industrial chain of the mainland.
In the future, the domestic substitution of PI film in mainland China has a broad market space. The localization demand for aerospace, flexible display, semiconductor industry chain, and power battery separator is expected to drive the development of special functional PI films. Driven by the power of high-end and domestic substitution, China's PI film production capacity is expected to maintain a medium-to-high growth rate in the next few years.
The downstream of polyimide materials plays an important role in key frontier industries such as aerospace, military industry, and semiconductors, but at present, China is facing strict import and export controls and technical blockades in the field of polyimide materials. The independence and localization of core technologies in key areas of the national economy have become the focus of the mainland's policy support. In this context, polyimide materials have been included in a number of national policy plans.
At present, the "14th Five-Year Plan" issued by the mainland fully considers and emphasizes the complexity of international economic and trade forms, and the importance of national strategic scientific and technological forces, strategic emerging industries, and independent and controllable domestic industrial chains is becoming increasingly prominent. Considering the social value of polyimide materials in the fields of independent and controllable, national defense and security, and aerospace, the mainland polyimide industry chain is expected to receive continuous policy support in the next few years, and relevant high-tech enterprises are expected to receive policy support in multiple dimensions such as capital, talent, and taxation.
3.2. Silicon carbide fiber
Silicon carbide fiber (SiC fiber) is another new type of high-performance fiber developed after carbon fiber, which is a national strategic emerging material. At present, the application value of ceramic matrix composites made of silicon carbide fiber in the field of aero engine is very significant, and Western developed countries have successfully applied such products to improve many parts of aero engines and improve the efficiency of aero engines. With the cooperation of scientific research institutions and new material enterprises, the mass production of silicon carbide fibers has been realized and certain application results have been achieved. However, the current domestic silicon carbide fiber lags behind developed countries in terms of production capacity, quality and practical application. However, from a global perspective, silicon carbide fiber technology is still developing rapidly and iteratively. In the process of technology iteration, Chinese companies are expected to usher in the opportunity of overtaking in corners. With the further improvement of the performance of silicon carbide fiber and the gradual optimization of the production process, the material is expected to be applied to more aero engine parts in the future, and is expected to expand to other high-value civilian fields, with a broad potential market space.
SiC fiber is an inorganic fiber with a β-silicon carbide structure prepared by spinning, carbonization or vapor deposition with organosilicon compounds as raw materials, which belongs to the class of ceramic fibers. Since the advent of SiC fibers in the 80s of the 20th century, there have been three distinct product iterations of SiC fibers, and their heat resistance and strength have been significantly enhanced. At present, the maximum heat resistance of the third-generation silicon carbide fiber is 1800-1900°C, and the heat resistance and oxidation resistance are better than carbon fiber. In terms of material strength, the tensile strength of the third-generation silicon carbide fiber is 2.5~4GPa, the tensile modulus is 290~400GPa, and the strength retention rate is more than 80% at the maximum service temperature. At present, the potential applications of silicon carbide fibers include heat-resistant materials, corrosion-resistant materials, fiber-reinforced metals, armor ceramics, reinforced materials, etc., and have high use value in aerospace, military equipment, civil aircraft and other fields.
One of the main uses of SiC fibers is in the manufacture of SiC composite ceramic-based materials (CMC materials). This material is a cutting-edge composite material made by introducing SiC fibers into the matrix as a reinforcing material on the basis of a SiC ceramic matrix. CMC is an alternative to superalloys, which have stronger heat resistance, oxidation resistance, and lower density. In the field of aero engines, the application of CMC materials can further improve the turbine air intake, which in turn improves engine efficiency. At the same time, CMC material reduces the structural density, achieves lightweight, and improves the thrust-to-weight ratio of the aircraft. Therefore, SiC composite ceramic-based materials are considered to be ideal materials for thermal structural parts of near-space vehicles and reusable spacecraft, and their R&D and application have been highly valued by mainstream institutions and aero engine manufacturers.
At present, manufacturers in western developed countries have applied CMC materials to a number of aero engine hot-end components, mainly including engine tail nozzles, turbine stator blades, nozzle adjustment sheets, combustion chamber flame cylinders and other parts. However, due to the shortcomings of CMC material due to its brittleness, easy breakage and weak processability, its application in the field of turbine rotor and high-pressure turbine is still being explored.
According to incomplete statistics, the total global production of continuous silicon carbide fibers reached 300 tons in 2015. In the next few years, with the further expansion of major producers in the United States and Japan, and the entry of Chinese and Middle Eastern producers, the total world output of silicon carbide fiber is expected to grow to about 500 tons by 2025. According to Stratistics MRC forecasts, the SiC fiber market was valued at around $250 million in 2017. With the deepening of research work and the gradual increase in use scenarios of SiC fibers, its market demand is expected to expand rapidly. The market size of SiC fibers is expected to grow to USD 3,587 million by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 34.4%.
One of the most significant downstream applications of SiC is CMC materials, which is estimated to reach $8.8 billion in 2021, according to MarketsandMarkets. In the next decade, with the enhancement of comprehensive national strength and the uncertainty of the international situation, major developing countries represented by China are expected to increase investment in the aerospace field, and the demand for a new generation of aircraft and aero engines is expected to increase significantly. In this context, the use of SiC fiber composite ceramic-based materials (CMC materials) is expected to increase significantly due to the significant advantages of light weight, high heat resistance, and oxidation resistance.
In 1975, Professor Yajima of Tohoku University in Japan succeeded in producing continuous inorganic SiC fibers using polycarbonatesilane as a raw material using the precursor conversion method. At the end of the 80s of the 20th century, Ube Industries and Nippon Carbon successively realized the industrial production of SiC fibers, and the large-scale production of SiC fibers was the first in Japan.
After decades of development, developed countries such as the United States and Japan have formed multiple generations of SiC fiber product systems, and launched high-performance, high-purity, high-value third-generation SiC fiber products. At present, Nippon Carbon and Ube Industries have the largest production of SiC fiber products, which can reach 100 tons.
In addition, out of optimism about the global aerospace upgrade trend, major developed country manufacturers are promoting the expansion process of third-generation silicon carbide fibers, as well as the research and development of higher-performance silicon carbide fiber products. Ube Industries is moving forward with an expansion project at its SiC fiber production site in Yamaguchi Prefecture, Japan, which is expected to have a production capacity of 200 tons by 20251. In the United States, GE's silicon carbide plant in Alabama has been officially put into operation in 2018, and the production capacity of third-generation silicon carbide fiber is expected to be 10 tons per year by 2020. If a breakthrough can be made at the industrialization level, the application scenarios of silicon carbide fiber are expected to be further broadened, and the market demand will be boosted.
Continuous silicon carbide fiber has extremely high application value in aerospace, national defense and military industry, and is a military sensitive material. Therefore, Western developed countries have implemented a strict confidentiality blockade on silicon carbide fiber products and technologies, and China can only rely on independent research and development to achieve the localization of high-performance silicon carbide fiber. Breakthrough in the large-scale mass production of new silicon carbide fiber materials is an important part of the mainland's modernization of the air force and the localization of high-performance aero engines. Considering the strategic significance of national defense security, independent and controllable, as well as the broad upgrade space of continental aviation manufacturing and air force equipment, the potential demand for domestic high-performance silicon carbide fiber is huge. At present, under the guidance of the centennial goal of the founding of the army, the modernization process of national defense and the army is expected to accelerate, and the continental silicon carbide fiber industry will usher in a historic development opportunity.
Continental's research on high-performance continuous SiC fiber products began in the 80s of the last century, and after more than 30 years of development, it has achieved substantial breakthroughs in a number of key technologies. Up to now, the performance of China's domestic SiC fiber products has been close to that of foreign second-generation SiC fiber products.
In 2005, Suzhou Saifei Group Co., Ltd. approached the National University of Defense Technology for the task of achievement transformation, and in 2010, it historically realized the industrialization of continuous silicon carbide fiber in the mainland, becoming the fourth industrialized enterprise in the world (2 in Japan and 1 in the United States), and also made the mainland the third country in the world to publicly claim to have mastered this technology. Since then, SAFI Group has completed the layout of the silicon carbide industry chain in Suzhou, Suqian, Zhenjiang and other places. In 2016, China's first first-generation SiC fiber production line with an annual output of 10 tons was put into operation. In the same year, the National University of Defense Technology signed a technology transfer cooperation agreement with Ningbo Zhongxing New Materials Co., Ltd. At the end of 2017, Ningbo Zhongxing's first 10-ton second-generation continuous silicon carbide fiber production line in China passed the acceptance, and the annual output can reach 20 tons after improvement. In addition, the company has reserved space for 3 production lines that can support the long-term production capacity of 80-100 tons of silicon carbide fibers, laying the foundation for future expansion.
However, there is still a significant gap between mainland China and developed countries in the manufacturing level of third-generation high-performance silicon carbide fibers, and major institutions are still in the development and research stage. The National University of Defense Technology has carried out the small-scale preparation of the third-generation silicon carbide fiber, and the main performance has reached or approached the similar level abroad, but has not yet carried out large-scale industrial manufacturing.
High-performance silicon carbide fiber is a key breakthrough in the field of aerospace materials in the continent, and the potential demand in the future is huge. At present, high-performance silicon carbide fibers are mainly used in aero engine manufacturing, so the defense industry is one of the most important downstream applications. Under the guidance of the centennial goal of the founding of the army, the modernization process of our army is expected to accelerate, and the penetration rate of new materials represented by silicon carbide fiber is expected to increase significantly in the process of upgrading.
Selected report source: Yinchuang Think Tank
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