Aerospace Aircraft and Equipment Manufacturing Investment increased by 49.6% from January to April

A sanitary ware enterprise in Foshan, Guangdong Province has realized digital management in all aspects of factory warehousing, testing and logistics. Photo by Nandu reporter Zheng Junbin

"In April, the operation of the national economy continued to pick up and improve."

On May 17, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the operation of the national economy in April 2024. Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, chief economist and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said that in April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year, 2.2 percentage points faster than the previous month, and increased by 0.97% month-on-month. The national service industry production index increased by 3.5% year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 3,569.9 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3 percent year-on-year and 0.03 percent month-on-month. Consumer prices (CPI) rose 0.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and 0.1% month-on-month. From January to April, the average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.2 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year.

Prices rose 0.3% year-on-year in April, and the CPI is expected to rebound moderately at a low level in the next stage

Recently, the price increases of water, electricity, gas and high-speed rail in some cities have caused widespread discussion. At the press conference, talking about the impact of public utility price increases, Liu Aihua responded that according to estimates, in the CPI in April, the prices of water, gas and train tickets rose by 0.1%, 0.1% and 0.2% respectively month-on-month, and the electricity prices were flat month-on-month, and the total impact of the four items on the CPI rose by less than 0.01 percentage points. On a year-on-year basis, water prices rose by 0.9%, gas prices rose by 2.4%, train ticket prices rose by 0.5%, and electricity prices remained flat year-on-year. The total of the four items affected the CPI to rise by about 0.02 percentage points. From the perspective of prices in April, the total month-on-month impact of water, gas, train tickets and electricity prices on the CPI rose by less than 0.01 percentage points, and about 0.02 percentage points year-on-year.

At the press conference, a reporter asked how much of China's CPI rose to 0.3% year-on-year and the core inflation rate was 0.7% in April. What is the outlook for CPI during the year? In this regard, Liu Aihua analyzed that in April, with the continuous recovery of consumer demand, especially service demand, there were some improvements in the field of consumer prices, with a steady year-on-year increase, and a month-on-month increase from a decline to an increase.

Specifically, there are several main characteristics: First, the year-on-year increase has expanded. In April, the CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices fell by 2.7%, the same rate of decline as the previous month. Non-food prices rose by 0.9 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, energy prices rose by 3.6 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points, industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose by 0.4 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, and service prices rose by 0.8 percent, continuing to maintain a moderate upward trend.

Second, the month-on-month ratio has turned from a decline to an increase. In April, the CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month from a 1% decline in the previous month. Among them, food prices fell by 1% month-on-month, 2.2 percentage points narrower than the previous month. In the food industry, due to the overall abundant market supply, the price of fresh food has mostly declined, but the decline tends to be narrower. Non-food prices rose 0.3% month-on-month and fell 0.5% in the previous month. Among the non-food items, driven by the increase in travel during the holiday, the prices of air tickets, transportation rentals, hotel accommodation and tourism all increased by 15.3%, 9%, 4% and 2.7% respectively. At the same time, affected by the rise in international gold prices and oil prices, domestic gold jewellery prices rose by 8.7% and gasoline prices rose by 3%. "Overall, service prices rose 0.3% from a 1.1% decline month-on-month, indicating that demand for services continues to recover."

Third, the year-on-year increase in core CPI expanded, and the month-on-month increase turned from a decline to an increase. In April, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, it rose 0.2% from a decline of 0.6% in the previous month.

Liu Aihua said that in the next stage, as the weather warms up and the supply increases, food prices will remain at seasonal lows. Under the influence of the trade-in policy, consumer demand for industrial consumer goods is expected to rebound, and prices will rise slightly in a stable manner. Service prices are expected to continue to rise, driven by the gradual recovery in demand for services. Therefore, judging from these factors, the CPI is expected to rebound moderately at a low level in the next stage.

The zero growth rate of the society fell in April, mainly due to the high base brought about by the wrong month of the holiday

From the perspective of the main indicators, in April, although some indicators were affected by factors such as the wrong month of the holiday and the high base of the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate slowed down, but the growth rate of industry, import and export accelerated, the overall improvement of employment prices, and the expectations of enterprises have remained in the boom range, high-quality development has been steadily promoted, and the overall economic operation has been stable, continuing the upward trend.

In terms of the service industry, Liu Aihua said that the production index of the service industry increased by 3.5% year-on-year in the month, which was lower than the previous month, which was mainly affected by the high base caused by the holiday staggered month. Last year, two days of the "May Day" holiday were arranged in April, and this year all of them fell in May, which means that the holiday in April this year was two days less than that in April last year.

The factors of the wrong month of the holiday had a relatively large impact on the tourism, accommodation and catering, culture and sports, leisure services and other industries in April last year, bringing a high base effect. In April last year, the service sector production index increased by 13.5% year-on-year, the highest point for each month of the year. "We have preliminarily calculated that the high base factors brought by the holiday staggered month affected the year-on-year growth rate of the service industry production index fell by more than 1 percentage point, and after deducting the holiday staggered month factor, the service industry operated generally stable and continued the recovery trend."

This factor also affects the data on consumption. Liu Aihua said that the total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 2.3% year-on-year, down from the previous month, which was also affected by the high base caused by the holiday staggered month. In April last year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 18.4% year-on-year and 1.06% month-on-month. Whether it is a year-on-year growth rate or a month-on-month growth rate, it is the high point of each month of the year. According to preliminary estimates, the high base factors brought about by the staggered holidays have affected the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods by more than 1 percentage point. In terms of specific consumption types, the consumption of basic living commodities such as grain, oil and food, as well as some upgraded commodities, continued to grow steadily. From January to April, the retail sales of services increased by 8.4% year-on-year, continuing to maintain rapid growth.

"However, after deducting the impact of the base in the same period, it is still a steady growth trend." From the perspective of month-on-month growth, the total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 0.03% month-on-month, maintaining a steady growth trend. Liu Aihua pointed out that on the whole, since the beginning of this year, from the ice and snow economy at the beginning of the year to the holiday economy of each long holiday, hot spots such as cultural and tourism consumption, digital consumption, green consumption, and health consumption have continuously added new impetus to the recovery of the consumer market, and the overall consumer market has shown a continuous recovery trend.

"But it should also be noted that residents' spending power and consumer confidence still need to be further improved." Liu Aihua said that in the next stage, with the continuous emergence of new consumption scenarios, the accelerated integration of new business formats, the continuous expansion of consumption space, and the gradual implementation of consumption promotion policies such as the trade-in of consumer goods, the consumption potential is expected to be continuously released.

Investment in fixed assets grew steadily, and investment in information services increased by 19.9% from January to April

What are the bright spots in April's manufacturing investment data? Particularly in the high-tech manufacturing and green energy sectors, how exactly is the growth in investment performing? What's next?

Since the beginning of this year, driven by the relevant policies of actively expanding effective investment, investment in fixed assets has generally maintained steady growth. From January to April, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter, mainly due to the rain and flood disasters in some parts of the south affecting the construction progress of the project.

Among them, the investment in Guangdong and Sichuan increased by 0.4% and 1.6% respectively from January to April, down 3.6 percentage points from January to March, and the total growth rate of the two provinces fell by about 0.6 percentage points. Overall, however, investment has maintained a steady growth.

Liu Aihua introduced that in the field of investment, there are mainly the following characteristics:

First, investment in the manufacturing industry has grown steadily. From January to April, manufacturing investment increased by 9.7% year-on-year. From January to April, investment in equipment manufacturing increased by 12.2% year-on-year, and investment in consumer goods manufacturing increased by 15.4% year-on-year, both of which maintained double-digit growth.

Second, the investment in technological upgrading has grown rapidly. From January to April, investment in technological transformation in the manufacturing industry increased by 8.5 percent, and investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.1 percent. Among them, the investment in the aerospace and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 49.6 percent, the investment in the e-commerce service industry increased by 27.6 percent, and the investment in the information service industry increased by 19.9 percent.

Third, the investment in equipment renewal has grown rapidly. Driven by the large-scale equipment renewal investment policy, from January to April, the investment in the purchase of equipment and tools increased by 17.2% year-on-year, 13 percentage points faster than the total investment, driving the growth of all investment by 2.2 percentage points.

Fourth, there is strong support for large projects. From January to April, the completed investment of projects with a planned total investment of 100 million yuan and above increased by 10% year-on-year, 5.8 percentage points faster than the total investment.

"In the next stage, with the continuous emergence of the driving and amplifying role of government investment, the continuous enhancement of market confidence and expectations, the gradual recovery of the enthusiasm of private investment and the continuous strengthening of the guarantee of project elements, the key role of effective investment is expected to be further played," Liu Aihua said.

Written by: Nandu reporter Chen Qiuyuan, comprehensive CCTV news, China Network