Expert: A shares to get 4,000 points, 3,000 points is too dangerous

If you want to do it, you will do it to the end, and 4,000 points in the stock market is not a dream.

Recently, "Finding the Source of Confidence in China's Economy: Financial China 2023 Annual Conference and the 21st Financial Billboard" was held in Beijing.

Liu Jipeng, Dean of the Capital Finance Research Institute of China University of Political Science and Law, attended and delivered a speech.

"I often mention that A-shares should go to 4,000 points because I think our current price-to-earnings ratio is too low. The Shanghai Stock Exchange is only 11 times, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is only about 20 times, and the Beijing Stock Exchange is only about 17 times. ”

Liu Jipeng said, "At present, the mainland's economic growth rate is still twice the growth rate of the U.S. economy, if the mainland's economic growth rate remains at about 5.3% or 5.4% this year, such an economic growth rate is also twice the U.S. economic growth rate, therefore, a capital market like A-shares, how can it get to 4,000 points, it is too dangerous to always go around around 3,000 points, and investors have no confidence."

In fact, Liu Jipeng has already put forward the view of 4,000 points in A-shares.

In July 2021, Liu Jipeng delivered a speech on "What is the crux of the stock market's bull and bear long" at a forum, and said that the stock market volatility is reasonable at plus or minus 10% ~ 12.5%, and 4000 points is the basic point for the rise of China's stock market.

Earlier, in 2017, at the "2017 Sixth China Listed Company Leaders Summit", Liu Jipeng made it clear in his speech that the A-share market at 4,000 points is healthy, and the slow bull market will come again above 4,000 points.

Liu Jipeng once said: "If all enterprises assume that they do this logically, won't 4,000 points be consolidated? This process does not need to be forced by the regulatory authorities, and the stock prices of listed companies will rise, the shareholders will be satisfied, and the shareholders will adjust their positions and exchange shares with each other in the course of the rise, and the stock market of the whole will be alive." ”

Currently, the Shanghai Composite Index is 3,022 points, with a high of 3,418 points and a low of 2,923 points this year.

It is worth mentioning that recently, a number of financial tycoons have issued articles that are optimistic about A-shares.

At the investor conference a few days ago, private equity boss Lin Yuan said many times that now is a good time to invest in China's A-share market, and it may be an opportunity to take assets to a new level.

He believes that the current market valuation is very cheap, and many of them are "5% off" compared to the average PE (price-to-earnings ratio) of the past few decades.

Lin Yuan said: "I put all my cash, which we originally kept every year, and I also invested all of it, just to give investors a signal." People do key things when it's critical, and doing key things today is to close your eyes and vote, there will be no mistakes, there are no other results, this is my requirement for myself. ”

Li Bei, the head of Banxia Investment, previously said, "From the perspective of asset allocation, we are optimistic about the performance of Chinese stocks in the next two years. ”

"In the future, the level of this round of bull market in China's stock market will exceed the level of the past two or three rounds of small bull market, and it is likely to exceed the level of once in 5 years, and may be once in 10 or even 20 years. Li Bei said.

Wang Yiping, the founder of 10 billion private equity evolution assets and a big V, posted, "Looking back at several big bull markets in history, namely 2000, 2007, 2014 and 2020, it can be seen that a wave of bull markets has ushered in about six and a half to seven years. ”

Wang Yiping believes that the bull market generally begins to strengthen in a year and a half to two years in advance, the last round of bull market is 2019-2020, plus seven years is about 2026, and if you are one or two years in advance, there will be a turning point in 2024.

Author | Zhang Xiaolei