This year is the worst in the world, and the market was rescued again on Friday, this time it is technology, which sector of A-shares is most likely to be recognized by the government and the people?

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Value line guide

In the performance of the global capital market index in the first 11 months of this year, A-share investors were again the first to the bottom, and the sense of gain was the lowest in the world! Big technology companies in the United States continued to dance with elephants this year, with Nvidia rising more than twice and Apple rising 50 percent.

On Friday, the state-owned capital operating company bought the state-owned enterprise technology ETF, which temporarily stopped the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes from falling. This time I still buy ETFs, but not large enterprises, not financial, but technology ETFs.

At present, both macroeconomic and microeconomic difficulties are difficult.

The real estate trend has changed, and now infrastructure investment is only modestly improving the economy, and it is no longer able to support the general trend. The recovery in consumption is sluggish. Just now, Pinduoduo's performance has risen sharply, and JD Ali has entered a downward trend, indicating that buying cheap goods and downgrading consumption is becoming a new trend. It's harder to export.

Only scientific and technological innovation can arouse greater and better imagination. It's a hard but right path. Can the government and the public agree on Friday's A-share bailout funds and buy technology ETFs this time? Can A-shares take advantage of the situation to get out of the trough? Which technology companies, early, mid-term, medium-term, year-end and next year, will shine?

This issue of Value Line will focus on this topic.

Friday bailout?

Who is buying and what is being bought

This Friday, another national team fund was sold.

On December 1, China Guoxin Holdings Co., Ltd. announced that its subsidiary Guoxin Investment Co., Ltd. increased its holdings of CSI Guoxin Central Enterprises Technology Leading Index ETF and CSI Central Enterprises Innovation Driven Index ETF on the same day, and will continue to increase its holdings in the future.

This time I still buy ETFs, but not large enterprises, not financial, but technology ETFs.

Released on November 16, 2022, the CSI Guoxin State-owned Enterprises Technology Leading Index mainly selects the securities of 50 listed companies under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council whose business involves aerospace and defense, computer, electronics, semiconductors, communication equipment and technical services as the index sample, so as to reflect the overall performance of the securities of listed companies with technology themes of central enterprises. The index is actively traded, showing high profitability characteristics, and the risk-return performance is excellent.

There are three ETFs tracking the CSI Guoxin Central Enterprises Technology Leading Index, in addition to the Central Enterprises Technology Leading ETF (562380), there are also the Central Enterprises Technology 50 ETF (563050) and the Central Enterprises Technology ETF (560170), of which the Central Enterprises Technology ETF (560170) is slightly larger.

This time, the focus is on the science and technology of central enterprises, which is to guide capital to gather in strategic emerging industries and scientific and technological innovation industries, promote the development of high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries, and make greater contributions to supporting the high-quality development of the real economy.

Industry insiders believe that there is no turning back from the bow, and there will be more institutions or funds in the future. The "real money" of heavyweight institutions has taken over the baton and is continuing to accumulate strength to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence.

The latest news is that Guoxin may continue to increase its holdings every day in the next week.

Liu Jipeng believes that although the stock market is still hovering around 3,000 points, it can be seen from the Central Financial Work Conference, the document issued by the Ministry of State Security, and the meeting of the China Securities Regulatory Commission that the central government's determination is very firm, that is, it must pull up the market.

However, some market participants believe that even if the top and bottom ruthlessly pull up the technology of central enterprises, play weight, and hit the industry leader, it is worth in-depth study whether these technology companies have fundamental support, whether they have growth, and whether they can make outstanding achievements on the high-speed track of science and technology.

In the first 11 months, A-shares were at the bottom of the world.

Who is rising in U.S. stocks?

Big technology!

In the first 11 months of this year, Chinese investors had a miserable life, and in terms of the performance of major indices in the global capital market, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were once again at the bottom.

Excluding the crazy depreciation of Argentina's national currency, the Nasdaq rose 36.67% to dominate the world, behind which the continued rampant rush of large US technology stocks.

In addition, Europe, Japan, South Korea, etc. have all achieved very good performance, and the index has risen by more than 10%.

(Performance ranking of major indices in the world's major markets)

Since the beginning of this year, big technology companies in the United States have continued to dance with elephants this year, with Nvidia rising more than twice and Apple rising 50%.

So why are A-shares not rising, and what is the root cause?

Some people say that it is the general trend of anti-globalization, some people say that it is the weakness of domestic economic fundamentals, some people say that there is no engine for innovation, some people say that the capital market needs a better legal system, some people say that everything is a cycle, and some people say that confidence has been lost...

In the past two days, a passage on the Internet has resonated with many stockholders:

Nostalgic for that distant era, the era when serious research and serious investment can have returns, even if it is just the dividends of the times wrapped in some personal struggle, it is better than pretending to work hard and pretending to invest, but unable to resist redemption, unable to resist the decline, unable to resist the general trend of powerlessness.

Duan Yongping said that pretending to be able to swim is dangerous, and pretending to invest is the same, but many people do not understand the danger of pretending to invest until they actually encounter danger. For so many years, it is very dangerous in A-shares most of the time!

Pinduoduo rises and JD Ali falls,

What does it mean?

Recently, Pinduoduo's stock price has skyrocketed, and its market value has surpassed Alibaba, which has attracted a lot of attention.

Judging from the major e-commerce platforms in this year's China General Internet, Pinduoduo is undoubtedly the most beautiful. Since the beginning of the year, JD.com's market value has fallen 51%, Alibaba's 16%, and Pinduoduo has risen 78%. At present, Pinduoduo has a market value of $193 billion, Alibaba has $188.4 billion, and JD.com has only $42.7 billion.

Behind the re-ranking of the three major e-commerce companies is the continuous downgrading of domestic people's consumption.

Pinduoduo's brand image is high-quality and inexpensive, and the brand supply chain is not OEM goods. At present, there is a lot of overcapacity, so many goods can be made very cheap, deducting the added value of the brand, and it can be done at a high quality and low price.

After three years of the epidemic, people generally have weak expectations for future income and a poor sense of the economy, and it is also an important direction to shift from brands to supply chain goods.

Today, to add insult to injury, the two major reservoirs of wealth for Chinese residents are even more leaky, real estate and the stock market. Especially since the second half of this year, the property market and stock market have accelerated their decline. The current can be described as a large loss. House prices have been adjusted by more than 30%, with some areas exceeding 40%. The average loss of stocks and funds is also about 30%.

The reason is very simple, assets shrink, income is less, and the consumption in life is to save what can be saved.

In the 30 years that Japan has lost, the companies that have been able to develop are nothing more than Muji and Uniqlo, which just cut into everyone's pursuit of use value. This is also called the lipstick effect in economics, the more bad the economic expectations, the more people tend to buy the cheap, cost-effective goods.

Therefore, Pinduoduo can be regarded as stepping on the dividends of the times.

Which is the most dramatic in scientific and technological innovation?

The early, early, middle, and Chinese and North Korean styles of play are completely different

The real estate trend has changed, and now infrastructure investment is only modestly improving the economy, and it is no longer able to support the general trend. The recovery of consumption is sluggish, and it is more difficult to export, so it is clear that the focus in the future will be on scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading.

In the past two days, the daughter of the chairman of the A-share listed company Xinyada released a product called Pika in the United States, which detonated the technology circle and also drove the hype of A-share AI applications.

At present, many leaders of scientific and technological innovation are in the United States, but there are also a number of domestic substitutes and supporting companies in related industrial chains in China that are worthy of in-depth research and follow-up observation. Looking forward to 2024, artificial intelligence will have further development, and it is likely that the current business model will be implemented, the empowerment of traditional industries, and the change of lifestyle.

Based on this, China Merchants Securities recently sorted out the top ten intelligent industry trends that need to be focused on in 2024: ecological construction based on large models, AI chip performance improvement and autonomous controllability, AI upgrade of consumer electronics, further development of automotive intelligence, humanoid robots are expected to become the ultimate carrier of AI, innovation of games and entertainment models, high personalization of smart homes, personalization of educational electronic products, intelligent manufacturing and 3D printing, intelligent security and privacy protection. There are also fund managers who have supplemented biotechnology, innovative drugs and other related technology tracks.

The value line has selected several tracks for investors' reference:

1. AI performance improvement and autonomous controllability:

On October 17, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security further escalated sanctions on Chinese semiconductors, and domestic substitution is imperative.

Huawei: iFLYTEK and Baidu have announced the purchase of Huawei's Ascend 910B AI chip. According to industry insiders, although Nvidia H20 still has ecological advantages, in the long run, major domestic manufacturers still regard Huawei Ascend as the optimal solution for Plan B.

In the first half of 2023, 500,000 locally sourced/developed AI accelerator chips were used for AI servers in China. This volume accounts for 10% of the entire server market in China. This number will skyrocket in 2024.

At present, 11 manufacturers, including iFLYTEK and Cloudwalk Technology, have released the Ascend AI large model all-in-one solution, involving multiple vertical fields such as government affairs, education, medical care, and security. AI all-in-one machine may become the main form of large model landing on the B-side in the near future.

2. Humanoid robot industry chain

From November 28th to 29th, the leaders visited the domestic Fourier humanoid robot GR-1 in Shanghai, which can achieve fast walking, agile obstacle avoidance, steady uphill and downhill and anti-impact interference and other movement functions.

Overseas, Tesla's humanoid robot is progressing rapidly, and Musk expects Optimus to be mass-produced to the order of "millions", and it is expected that its single cost may be less than 20,000 US dollars, and the good news at home and abroad is expected to form a resonance. According to GGII's forecast, the global penetration rate of humanoid robots in service robots is expected to reach 3.5% by 2026, with a market size of more than $2 billion, and the global market size is expected to exceed $20 billion by 2030.

Shenwan Hongyuan suggested paying attention to three directions: motor, reducer and thermal management. Compared with traditional actuators, semi-direct drive actuators have significantly improved dynamic response ability, and are expected to become one of the mainstream technical routes of humanoid robots in the future. If humanoid robots are applied on a large scale in the future, companies with relevant core technologies in the industrial chain will be the first to benefit.

3. Intelligent driving industry chain

Huatai Securities research report pointed out that at the just-concluded Guangzhou Auto Show, several trends were shown: (1) Huawei, ideal, Xiaopeng and other models have received high attention, and the voice of intelligence has been further improved; (2) the new car installation rate of lidar is high; (3) Huawei Ascend, Horizon Journey 6 and other chips provide domestic car companies with localization options in terms of high computing power; new car pricing has generally declined, and the market competition may be more fierce next year.

Landing on A-shares, Huatai Securities recommends paying attention to the LiDAR sector, and the industrial chain companies include complete machines (Hesai Technology), transmitter modules (Focuslight Technology, Changguang Huaxin), and optical components (Yongxin Optics, Crystal Optoelectronics, Sunny Optics).

For tracks and companies at different stages of industrial development, the timing and methods of participation are very different:

In the early stage of industrial development, the concept of 0-1, at this time, it is not good to look at the performance, you can only look at the industrial development trend and the company's core competitiveness, in a group of competitors, to see whose technology is more powerful, to see whose commercialization may run ahead.

For the early and middle stages of the industry, when the performance can be calculated, it is necessary to study the performance expectations of the next few quarters, after the stock price of some companies has risen in the short term, and its future performance expectations do not match the current expectations, investors should also learn to reduce their positions on the rise.

For the mid-term of the industry, everyone can clearly press the calculator, once the performance of individual stocks can not keep up, what is ushered in is a sharp drop in stock prices, and a very small number of performance continues to exceed expectations to usher in a long bull.

Finally, it should be noted that there are some "innovation flowers" in A-shares, which will bloom beautifully in the future, but we must also beware of short-lived, the key is to see whether its industrial prospects are broad, the key is to see whether it has core competitive advantages, and the key is whether it is a large and small leader (including industrial supporting leaders).

annex

1

Guoxin may continue to increase its holdings every day in the coming week

Source: China Securities News

On December 3, some people in the industry believed that there was no turning back from the bow, and there would be more institutions or funds in the future. The "real money" of heavyweight institutions has taken over the baton and is continuing to accumulate strength to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence. It is reported that Guoxin may continue to increase its holdings every day in the next week.