Three reasons why Israel is becoming less and less confident!
Just 10 days ago, on October 18, Israeli Foreign Minister Cohen confidently stated that after the end of the war, not only would Hamas be eliminated, but Gaza's territory would also be "reduced." Cohen's remarks have actually made it clear that Israel has long determined its ground operations and has long been determined to annex a large part of Gaza's territory.
Just like Zhan Hao's previous analysis, Israel has actually had a plan to annex northern Gaza for a long time, and wants to use this as a springboard to serve Israel with the last vestiges of US hegemony and help Israel achieve military expansion in Lebanon and Syria. However, it seems that things are not as simple as Israel thinks. Israel's ground operations in Gaza face a triple strategic pressure:
First, there is significant pressure from the international community
For more than half a century, Jews have controlled the Western media, and the Western media has controlled world opinion, so in the past few decades, the Jewish-controlled media has created a world in which Jews are the biggest victims of World War II, Jews are the smartest and most resilient people, and Jews have made outstanding contributions to all mankind... In short, the whole world has a good impression of Jews, including Chinese.
However, Israel's naked massacre of Palestinian civilians has completely subverted the world's impression of Jews, and Israel's image of arrogance, selfishness, brutality, and domineering has been deeply seared into the hearts of people all over the world. Although Israel is still vicious, the strong accusations against Israel from the United Nations and from most countries in the world have put the Israeli government in a strategic position.
The second is the major pressure from the United States
The Biden administration is not very keen on Israel's preparations for a large-scale ground military operation in Gaza, as it could plunge the United States into a second war. If the United States is bogged down in two wars, then the United States will have to give up one between Ukraine and Israel in Eastern Europe, and it is clear that Ukraine will be a victim. In this case, the United States does not want to open a second battlefield in the Middle East, so the United States has not done enough to provide aid to Israel, which has made Israel worry that if Israel takes a large-scale ground operation and the United States does not keep up, it means that Israel may lose the war. In the event of a defeat in the war, the Israeli state is in danger of collapsing.
Therefore, when the pressure from the United States continues to increase, Israel does not dare to take unscrupulous ground military action for the time being.
Third, Israel is becoming more and more bottomless in its heart
Why is Israel's heart becoming more and more bottomless? On the UN side, Secretary-General António Guterres, who has always been pro-American, has stood firmly on the side of the Palestinians; China and Russia, on the other hand, are firmly on the side of Palestine; The international community, including countries in the Middle East, has also sided with Palestine. In such a scenario, if Israel insists on going its own way, then the Jewish state will face systemic risks. It is precisely because the Netanyahu government is becoming more and more bottomless that the Israeli offensive in Gaza seems to be thunderous and rainy.
Just past October 26, Israel began its first attempt at a large-scale ground operation, but Israel withdrew after a few hours of ground fighting, and the Israeli side did not make a statement on this military operation, which shows that the ground offensive did not go well.
At the same time, we have also seen that Hamas's rocket attacks on Israel are very heavy, and the saturation attacks make it impossible for the so-called Iron Dome system to intercept all of them, and some of the rockets fall into Israeli urban areas. Although the Israeli side did not report casualties, they clearly existed. More importantly, the blow of Hamas's sustained capacity is by no means comparable to that of the past. Moreover, if it continues like this, Israel's economy will surely collapse.
In such a situation, of course, Israel will appear less and less confident.
Hamas's visit to Moscow sends a bombshell signal!
I have to say that Putin is really retribution. Israel had previously supported Ukraine, and now Putin has allowed Hamas to visit Russia and meet with senior Russian officials. What is the signal of such an encounter? Yes, of course. Russia's support will not only be political, but militarily. Let's not forget that Russia has troops in Syria. In fact, as Zhan Hao analyzed before, Russia is likely to have supported Hamas for a long time, because this time the equipment in Hamas's hands has obviously changed some shotguns, and some are even old Soviet rocket artillery.
Israel was furious about Hamas's visit to Russia and strongly demanded that Russia expel Hamas. However, Russia does not bother with Israel at all, for the simple reason that who told you to support Ukraine before? What's more, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict can greatly reduce the geostrategic pressure on Russia from the United States and NATO, and Russia has no reason not to support Hamas, which is called encircling Wei and saving Zhao.
So, what signal did Hamas's visit to Moscow send? In Zhan Hao's view, at least three heavy signals have been released:
First, the status of Hamas is being recognized
Russia's official invitation to Hamas has removed Hamas from the context of Western terrorists in the past. In fact, there has never been an international consensus on the definition of a terrorist, so the criteria for terrorists vary significantly from country to country. In this case, Hamas is defined as a terrorist by the United States and the West, which Russia does not recognize. In fact, not only does Russia not recognize Hamas as a terrorist, but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan directly claims that the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) is fighting to defend their own land, which is almost a direct statement that Hamas is a Palestinian national hero.
In terms of perception of Hamas, China has never defined Hamas as a terrorist. Just yesterday, at a regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a Reuters reporter asked whether China plans to engage with Hamas after the Hamas delegation visited Moscow. Or has there been any engagement with Hamas? Spokesperson Mao Ning's reply is as follows: Thank you for your attention to China's efforts to promote peace talks. China has maintained communication with all parties and calls on all relevant parties in the international community to work together to promote a ceasefire and cease hostilities as soon as possible to avoid further deterioration of the situation. Mao Ning's answer has actually told Reuters that China has communicated with all parties in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, including Hamas.
After Mao Ning's answer, a Reuters reporter asked again: What is China's position on Hamas and its engagement with Hamas? Not in the context of the current escalation of the conflict in Gaza, but simply what is the view of Hamas as an organization?
Why did the Reuters reporter ask? In fact, the first question asked by the Reuters reporter Mao Ning has already been answered before, China has contacts with all parties, and the Reuters reporter obviously does not understand, but wants to guide the Chinese spokesman to say that China has contacts with Hamas, so that the American media can make a fuss. The second question from the Reuters reporter was to guide Hamas to have something to do with China, so that the American media could make a further fuss.
Mao Ning replied to Reuters' digging of the hole, she said: China has always advocated reconciliation and cooperation among all Palestinian factions. The immediate priority is to cease the fighting as soon as possible and to protect civilians. We call on all parties to work together to de-escalate the situation.
Obviously, Mao Ning was not fooled.
2. Russia confirms its intention to intervene in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Meeting with Hamas is actually a confirmation of its involvement in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Obviously, Russia will play an important role in the Palestinian-Israeli issue in the future, after all, there are troops stationed in Syria, which can play a key deterrent, especially if Israel wants to attack Syria, it will face difficulties, and the United States must fully devote itself to help. Russia's intervention in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is enough for Israel to drink a few pots!
Third, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict may be a Waterloo for the United States and Israel
If the Islamic states are determined to work together with Israel, it will be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Russia. Now, Hamas is at the forefront, and its combat power of tens of thousands cannot be underestimated. At the same time, even more powerful than Hamas are the Lebanese Allah, the Houthis, etc., and behind them is the entire Islamic world. If these countries are all fighting with Israel, with Russia behind them, and China on the side of fairness, justice and world peace, will the United States and Israel still be okay? If the United States and Israel must fight, isn't it a quagmire of war?
Therefore, Israel at the moment has fallen into a strategic dilemma!
No ground offensive? Can Israel go back? More than 8,000 people cannot die in vain, and the international community, including China and Russia, will certainly pull Islamic countries together to put pressure on Israel and implement the "two-state" solution as soon as possible. China has already said that the Palestinian-Israeli issue should not continue and that justice should be given to the Palestinians.
Launching a ground offensive? What if the United States does not have a supply of arms? When the time comes, will Israel not be besieged? And, what if there is strong resistance? In particular, the neighboring Islamic countries will be Israel's nightmare once they unite against Israel.
Israel, do you dare to continue to be arrogant? Absolutely, he will. It's just that there are fewer and fewer advantages to support Israel.