Since the end of the battle for Bakhmut, the Ukrainian side has been actively promoting their plans for a counteroffensive and is supported by many Western media. However, the effectiveness of the actual counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army disappointed President Volodymyr Zelensky. According to TASS, on July 23, local time, Putin met with Belarusian President Lukashenko in St. Petersburg, Russia's second largest city. This was the first meeting between the heads of state of Russia and Belarus since Wagner's "one-day mutiny." During the meeting, Putin told Lukashenko that the Ukrainian counteroffensive had failed, in which the Ukrainian army lost 26,000 people. Of course, this is just Putin's statement, and the authenticity of the data is debatable. However, as can be seen from recent reports in the Western media, the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army has indeed run into difficulties. The New York Times pointed out last week that in the first two weeks of the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian army's loss rate was as high as 20%, although in recent weeks this figure has dropped to 10%, but it does not mean that the situation has improved, but because the Ukrainian army has slowed down the pace of the offensive, and even in some areas, counteroffensive operations have been suspended. As things stand, it will become extremely difficult for Ukraine to complete its plans for a large-scale counteroffensive, and may even accelerate the rout of the Ukrainian army.
During Lukashenko's visit to Russia, he also showed Putin a map. Lukashenko showed Putin a map of Poland's troop increase to the Russian-Belarusian border, and he told Putin that Poland is actively recruiting mercenaries and strategic reserve personnel to increase troops on the Russian-Belarusian border in the near future. Lukashenko also revealed that one Polish army has been deployed just 40 kilometers from Brest (the main town in southwestern Belarus), and another about 100 kilometers from Grodno, the main town in western Belarus. Lukashenko analyzed that Poland's move is aimed at annexing the western regions of Ukraine. Lukashenko said that at the moment there is a talk of "separating" Ukraine and then joining several parts of NATO, but this statement is just a façade with the real aim of depriving the western regions of Ukraine and annexing it to Poland. Lukashenko also stressed that the United States supports Poland's approach.
In addition to bringing the map, Lukashenko also warned Poland in a humorous way. He told Putin that the Wagner members had embarrassed him because some of them had expressed a desire to "travel" to Poland, and they had even chosen locations — Warsaw and Rzeszow. However, a discerning person can understand at a glance that the Wagner members did not want to "tour" Poland, but intended to attack Poland and send a warning signal to Warsaw.
In fact, Russia has long detected Poland's covetousness for the territory of Ukraine. In July last year, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, posted a "new map of Ukraine" on social media. In this map, only the area around Kiev remains from the territory of Ukraine, while all seven southern regions are owned by Poland. Although this map caused a lot of controversy at the time, it was enough to prove that the Russian side had long seen through Poland's scheme. Last week, at a meeting, Putin also issued a warning to Poland, reminding them not to forget "Stalin's gift to Poland." At the same time, Putin also warned Poland that Belarus is an ally of Russia, and if Poland infringes on Belarus, it will be considered an invasion of Russia, and Russia will respond by all means. During World War II, Poland was destroyed by Germany, and after the war, the victorious Soviet Union acquired the territory of the former eastern Poland, and Stalin also asked Germany to give the territory of former East Prussia and Silesi to Poland. The subtext of Putin's warning is clear – just like the Soviet Union, Russia today is capable of "adjusting" Poland's territory.
Ukraine has been actively playing the role of "anti-Russian vanguard" during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. However, as the saying goes, people who show up are easy to hit. Poland's actions are undoubtedly playing with fire, and if it provokes Russia, it may invite disastrous consequences.