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Kazakhstan, a country full of political waves. Recently, the country's political landscape has changed in a way that has left the world stunned. Former President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his family once had special rights and status, but now the situation is changing dramatically.
In the past week, the Supreme Court of Kazakhstan announced the stripping of legal immunity to Nazarbayev's immediate family, a decision that marked the official repeal of the "first presidential law". The law gave Nazarbayev and his family untouchable status, allowing them to avoid prosecution while enjoying highly confidential property and bank accounts. However, all this is in the past, Nazarbayev himself has been downgraded from "first president" to "ordinary president", and his family has lost a series of special rights.
The outbreak of this political storm is no accident. In fact, a year ago, Kazakhstan was plunged into a serious political turmoil, the spark of which was the riots in early January last year. Initially, some local residents protested against the rise in gas prices, but soon the protest evolved into nationwide anti-government demonstrations, and eventually only with the assistance of Russia and CSTO did the Tokayev government manage to quell the riots.
Although some self-media initially blamed the riot on "Western forces", this is not the case. The Tokayev government has been pursuing a diplomatic strategy of "U.S.-Russian balance" and maintains close ties with the West. Therefore, there is no good reason for Western forces to get involved in the internal affairs of Kazakhstan. From the available information, there are two main reasons for the outbreak of this riot: first, members of the Nazarbayev family, dissatisfied with the existing privileges, tried to fight for a greater political position in order to overthrow the Tokayev government; Second, Nazarbayev himself failed to properly handle domestic contradictions.
First, let's focus on the first reason. In 2019, Nazarbayev voluntarily handed over the presidency to Tokayev, and the regime structure in Kazakhstan maintains a delicate balance. Nazarbayev took military power, Tokayev became president, and Nazarbayeva, the daughter of Lao Nayev, assumed legislative and financial power. However, this balance has lasted less than a year. In 2020, Nazarbayeva's son traveled to the UK to seek political asylum, revealing numerous corruption scandals about her. The incident put Nazarbayev to great shame. In May of the same year, Lao Na decided to remove Nazarbayeva from her position as speaker of the upper house and disqualify her as a senator.
Nazarbayeva and her supporters will not resign themselves to retreating, and they seek ways to fight back. This also explains why, during last January's riots, we saw a number of Western "non-governmental organizations" that actually used each other under the pretext of so-called "universal values."
However, the resolute actions of the Tokayev government eventually quelled the unrest. Nazarbayeva's whereabouts are a mystery, and members of the Nazarbayev family who remain in the country have to either flee the country or lose their public positions. But now, Tokayev's government seems intent on going one step further, repealing privileges such as the First President Law and immunity, and the next step may be to hold them accountable through law.
As for Nazarbayev himself, he has also experienced a lot of unhappiness in the past year. First, the name of the capital was changed from "Nur-Sultan" back to "Astana", then "First President's Day" was also changed to National Day, and his exit package was adjusted from "First President" to "Ordinary President".
However, this outcome was actually preordained. Although he made great contributions to Kazakhstan's economic development during his time in power, he failed to effectively reconcile the contradictions between the three major Yuzi forces in the country, which laid the groundwork for today's political turmoil.
Regarding the concept of "Yuzi", it dates back to 15
At the beginning of the century, on the occasion of the establishment of the then Kazakh Khanate. Because it was difficult for the central government to control the power factions in various places, these local forces formed highly independent military-political groups linked by tribal blood and common culture, and these groups were called "Yuzi". Although today, these jades are no longer as independent as they once were, the identity differences between them are still obvious.
Among these three major Yuzi, Dayuzi has the strongest political strength, Zhongyuzi has the largest population, and Xiaoyuzi is located near the Caspian Sea, with rich oil resources and strong industrial strength. How to balance the influence of these three Yuzi has always been a huge challenge for Kazakhstan's leaders.
However, during Lao Na's administration, the appointment and promotion of officials was more based on Yuzi's status than on ability, and there was even a general view that "there is an official who is born in Dayuzi". At the same time, Lao Na failed to effectively solve the problems of the oligarchic privileged group dominated by Dayuz. According to statistics, after the 1999 presidential election in Kazakhstan, the ratio of large, medium and small Yuzi representatives in important government positions at all levels was 23:13:6.
The power superiority of the big Yuzi, and the dissatisfaction of the small and medium-sized Yuzi with the distribution of power, were important reasons for the riots last January. At that time, many demonstrators chanted the slogan "Nazarbayev step down." Tough measures by the Tokayev government eventually quelled the unrest.
At present, the political direction of Kazakhstan is influenced by external forces, as well as by the three Yuzi on the existing power structure in the political, economic and social spheres. The country's political landscape is still changing, and where it heads in the future depends on the foreign policy of the United States, Russia and other countries in the region, as well as the influence of these three Yuzi on the political landscape of Kazakhstan.
Behind this political upheaval, we see the evolution of a country and turbulence in the power structure, and all this is related to the special status of Nazarbayev and his family, as well as the struggle for power within Kazakhstan. The country will continue to face political challenges in the future, and the world will continue to closely monitor the future development of Kazakhstan.
Revelation:
The aforementioned article describes the abolition of legal immunity in Kazakhstan for former President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his family, and the reasons behind this decision. From this we can draw some lessons:
The importance of the balance of power: The article mentions that there was a delicate balance in the distribution of power in Nazarbayev's Kazakhstan, but this balance was not maintained. This shows that the balance of power in the political system is crucial and that if it is broken, it can lead to internal contradictions and social unrest.
Corruption and political unrest: The Nazarbayev family's corruption scandal sparked internal discontent and even riots. This re-emphasizes the negative impact of government corruption on social stability. Clean and transparent government is key to maintaining national stability.
External Interference: The article mentions that some people blame "Western powers" for the unrest in Kazakhstan, but the reality is more complicated. External intervention may exacerbate domestic problems, so the state needs to maintain an independent and autonomous policy to avoid interference by external forces in internal affairs.
Criticism of privileges: The repeal of the First President Act and immunity shows that the privileged should not go unpunished. This is essential to uphold fairness and the rule of law, both in Kazakhstan and in other countries.
Summary:
The decision of the Supreme Court of Kazakhstan to strip former President Nazarbayev's family of legal immunity, as well as the repeal of the "first presidential law" that gave them privileges, marks a profound change in the country's political power structure. The reasons behind the decision include family discontent, corruption scandals, power imbalances and social unrest.
The implications of this event lie in the criticality of the balance of power, the harm that government corruption poses to social stability, the possibility of external interference, and the need for censorship and the rule of law for the privileged. Kazakhstan will continue to face internal and external challenges, and the future of the political situation depends on various factors, including the foreign policy of the United States and Russia and the influence of different "Yuzi" groups on the state power structure. Upholding the principles of political transparency, social equity and the rule of law will be key to Kazakhstan's stable development.
At the same time, the incident has also sparked widespread speculation about the future political direction of Kazakhstan. Below we explore possible trends:
Political system change: Kazakhstan may begin to consider political system reform to ensure greater democracy and representation. This could include increased parliamentary power, improved electoral processes, and increased political transparency. This will help ease tensions within society and enhance the legitimacy of the government.
Foreign policy: Kazakhstan has long balanced relations with major powers such as the United States and Russia. The incident could lead Kazakhstan to reassess its foreign policy, seek closer partners or adopt a more independent diplomatic stance. The international community will closely monitor Kazakhstan's diplomatic developments.
Social reforms: In order to stabilize the situation in the country, Kazakhstan may adopt a series of social reform measures, including raising living standards, reducing poverty, and improving the education and health care system. This will help alleviate social discontent and reduce the risk of social unrest.
Economic development: Kazakhstan has been pursuing economic diversification and modernization. The government is likely to step up efforts to attract foreign investment and develop the economy in the non-oil sector to reduce its dependence on the energy sector. This helps to increase employment opportunities and economic growth, and improve people's living standards.
Rule of law and the fight against corruption: The decision to abolish the immunity and privilege statute demonstrates the commitment of the Government of Kazakhstan to upholding the rule of law. In the future, more anti-corruption initiatives and reforms are expected to build a fairer and more transparent society.
In this process, Kazakhstan needs to closely observe changes in domestic and foreign factors and respond flexibly. At the same time, the international community will continue to pay close attention to the political and economic developments of this important Central Asian country to ensure peace and stability in the region.
In short, the reforms and policy adjustments made by Kazakhstan will profoundly affect the future direction of the country. The maintenance of political stability, social harmony and the principle of the rule of law will be the shared responsibility of the Government and people of Kazakhstan. This process requires care, transparency and broad participation to ensure the continued development and prosperity of the country.
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