On September 20, the State Council's new office held a regular briefing on the economic situation and policies of the State Council, attended by Cong Liang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Tao Qing, director of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Li Xianzhong, director of the Department of National Treasury of the Ministry of Finance, and Zou Lan, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, and responded to the recent hot issues concerned by the outside world in the operation of the economic situation.
Let's take a look at the highlights of the conference:
1. At present, there are many internal and external noises of bearish China and singing about China, and this argument has never been realized in the past, and it is not destined to be realized now and in the future.
2. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is very important, but it is not the whole of the RMB exchange rate, and it should be viewed comprehensively and comprehensively, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the exchange rate of RMB against a basket of currencies.
Since March and mid-July, thanks to the steady recovery of the domestic economy, the RMB has risen steadily against a basket of currencies, affected by the strengthening of the US dollar index, the bilateral exchange rate against the US dollar has depreciated, and it has maintained a relatively strong position against non-US dollar currencies.
4. The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will resolutely correct unilateral and pro-cyclical behaviors, resolutely deal with behaviors that disrupt market order, and resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot
5. It is expected that more than ninety percent of eligible borrowers can fully enjoy the policy dividend in the first time, and the interest rate of other borrowers' existing housing loans will also be adjusted before the end of October.
6. There is still sufficient policy space for monetary policy to respond to unexpected challenges and changes. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement prudent monetary policy accurately and effectively, and strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment and policies.
7. The main responsible comrades of the National Development and Reform Commission have presided over forums for private entrepreneurs for many times, and other responsible comrades and relevant departments and bureaus have listened to the opinions of private enterprises through research and discussion on many occasions. "It can be said that it is a whole-body effort."
From August to August, all localities have issued 3.7 trillion yuan of new special bonds; 2.95 trillion yuan of special bonds for project construction and other special bonds have been issued by various localities, completing 77.5% of the annual new special bond limit, 10.8 percentage points faster than the sequential progress.
Singing about China has never been achieved, and it is not destined to be realized in the future
"At present, there are many internal and external noises of bearish China and singing about China, and I want to say that this argument has never been realized in the past, and it is not destined to be realized now and in the future." Cong Liang stressed that since August, all relevant parties have continued to optimize a number of phased policies, studied and introduced a number of highly targeted new measures, actively planned a number of reserve policies, and systematically played a set of policy "combined fists".
Specifically, since August, the implementation of macro policies has continued to increase, a number of phased policies have been optimized, and at the same time, targeted new measures such as "recognizing housing without recognizing loans", adjusting and optimizing differentiated housing credit policies, and reducing the interest rate of the first set of housing loans in stock have been implemented one after another.
Cong Liang pointed out that with the continuous emergence of the effect of policy combination, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size and total retail sales of social consumer goods has recovered in August, the decline in import and export has narrowed, consumer prices have turned from falling to rising, the decline in factory prices of industrial producers and enterprise profits has continued to narrow, the national urban survey unemployment rate has fallen slightly, the manufacturing PMI has continued to rise, positive factors in economic operation are accumulating, bright spots are increasing, and social expectations have improved.
Cong Liang revealed that in response to changes in the economic situation, all relevant departments have carried out policy pre-research reserves on a regular basis, and promoted the timely introduction and implementation of reserve policies. At present, a number of reserve policies have been introduced to promote the sustained recovery of the economy, including raising the special additional deduction standard for personal income tax and the minimum wage standard in some regions, promoting mass consumption such as automobiles, and orderly expanding the scale of issuance of real estate investment trusts in the infrastructure sector.
Regarding the "economic deflation" problem that the outside world continues to pay attention to, Cong Liang responded that prices have still been running at a low level since this year, which needs to be paid attention to, but judging by factors such as price level, demand recovery, economic growth, and money supply, there is no so-called deflation in China's economy, and there will be no deflation in the later period.
"The price indicator is a lagging indicator of economic operation, and with the steady recovery of demand, the gradual enhancement of market confidence, the continuous improvement of economic operation, and the gradual weakening of the low base effect, the overall price level of the mainland is expected to continue to recover and gradually rise to near the annual average level." Cong Liang said.
The renminbi rose steadily against a basket of currencies
Since the beginning of this year, the international situation has been complex and changeable, and the global foreign exchange market has fluctuated greatly. Recently, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar has continued to come under pressure. At the meeting, a reporter asked that "China's exchange rate against the US dollar has declined recently, and the renminbi has depreciated." In response, Zou Lan responded that usually everyone discusses the bilateral exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, "but in fact, the RMB against a basket of exchange rate currencies can more fully reflect the change in the value of the currency." ”
Zou Lan pointed out that from the perspective of macroeconomic operation, exchange rate fluctuation is mainly to regulate trade and investment in the real economy, trade and investment are multilateral, involving many countries and currencies, so the change of RMB against a basket of currencies can more fully reflect the impact of the exchange rate on trade and investment and the balance of payments.
From the perspective of the exchange rate system, the mainland implements a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies. The exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar is very important, but it is not the whole of the renminbi exchange rate, and it should be viewed comprehensively and pay more attention to the changes in the exchange rate of the renminbi against a basket of currencies.
Zou Lan pointed out that the RMB against a basket of currencies can mainly focus on the RMB exchange rate index released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center. This exchange rate index calculates the movement of the renminbi against a basket of foreign currencies, weighted by the trade volume of the relevant country or region with the mainland. At present, it contains 24 basket currencies, corresponding to the total trade between countries or regions and the mainland accounts for more than 60%, of which the weight of the US dollar, the euro, the yen is relatively large, respectively 19.8%, 18.2% and 9.8%, on September 15, the RMB exchange rate index was reported at 98.51, up 1.8% from the end of June, of which the RMB appreciated 2.5 against the euro and 4.1 against the yen.
Zou Lan concluded that since mid-July, thanks to the steady recovery of the domestic economy, the RMB has risen steadily against a basket of currencies, affected by the strengthening of the US dollar index, the bilateral exchange rate against the US dollar has depreciated, and it has maintained a relatively strong position against non-US dollar currencies.
There is still ample policy space for monetary policy
Zou Lan pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China has fully implemented the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, prudent monetary policy is precise and powerful, and counter-cyclical adjustment has been strengthened, effectively and effectively coping with domestic and foreign risks and challenges, and consolidating the good trend of economic recovery. The results of the monetary and credit policy have initially appeared.
"There is still ample policy space for monetary policy to respond to challenges and changes that exceed expectations." Zou Lan stressed that the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy accurately and effectively, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment and policy reserves, and promote high-quality development with high-quality financial services.
Zou Lan also said that the central bank has comprehensively used a variety of policy tools to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity; Give play to the pillar role of large state-owned banks and enhance the stability of credit growth. Pay attention to the implementation of the "16 Financial Articles", and increase financial support such as the transformation of urban villages, the construction of infrastructure for the use of emergencies, and the construction of affordable housing. Continue to implement the existing structural tools, and further implement the renewal and extension of expired tools. Guide the financing cost of the real economy to decrease steadily, and promote banks to actively adjust the interest rate of existing housing loans. Make good use of various regulatory reserve tools to regulate supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, and resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot. Guide financial institutions to actively and steadily support local debt risk resolution, and establish a normalized financial debt monitoring mechanism for financing platforms.
More than ninety percent of borrowers can enjoy the policy dividends of existing housing loan interest rates in a timely manner
On August 31, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision explicitly allowed commercial banks to reduce the interest rate of eligible existing first housing loans from September 25, and could choose to replace the new housing loans issued by commercial banks, or negotiate to change the interest rate level agreed in the contract.
"The reduction of existing mortgage interest rates has been actively and effectively promoted." Zou Lan said that considering that the duration of housing loans can be up to 30 years, and the time, region and individual differences of different loans are large, after the policy was announced, the central bank maintained close communication with major banks, guiding banks to refine policy implementation plans in accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law, and provide convenience for borrowers as much as possible.
Zou Lan pointed out that on September 7, four large state-owned banks issued an announcement that for the stock floating rate first home loan priced with reference to the loan market quotation rate, it is clear that on September 25, the first day of the implementation of the policy, the interest rate will be actively adjusted in batches, and the whole process does not require borrower operation.
For other situations such as "second set to first set", borrowers can apply to the bank and provide supporting materials from September 25, and the bank will make batch adjustments to the approved business. Most of the existing first home loan interest rates that meet the requirements will be reduced to the quoted rate, and after May 2022, it will be reduced to the quotation rate minus 20 basis points, directly to the lower limit of the policy. Small and medium-sized banks are also formulating and issuing implementation rules with reference to state-owned banks.
"It is expected that more than ninety percent of eligible borrowers can fully enjoy the policy dividend in the first time, and the interest rate of other borrowers' existing housing loans will also be adjusted by the end of October." Zou Lan said that the reduction of the interest rate of existing housing loans can save the interest burden of residents and significantly enhance consumption capacity. This policy adjustment is beneficial to the medium and long term, which can continue to reduce the expenditure of households with higher interest rate loans to buy houses in recent years, support the improvement of residents' consumption capacity, and effectively promote consumption growth.
Responsible editor: Wan Jianyi
Proofreader: Yang Lilin
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