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At present, the Netherlands is about to implement the latest lithography ban in September. This is not the first time that restrictions on lithography machine equipment have been implemented for the Chinese market, and the previous EUV lithography machine shipment restriction agreement is still fresh in mind. However, now the limitation of the scope of lithography machines has expanded again, which poses new challenges for China in the introduction of lithography machine equipment, especially given that the domestic production of lithography equipment is almost negligible.
On the eve of the lithography ban officially taking effect, China released a key lithography machine import data. According to public data, the total import of mainland lithography machines in 2022 will reach 39.63 billion yuan, of which the import amount from the Netherlands will reach 25.48 billion US dollars. It is remarkable that in the first seven months of this year alone, our imports of lithography machines from the Netherlands have reached the level of last year, reaching 18 billion yuan. This data shows that with the ban about to take effect, the demand for ASML on the mainland is climbing rapidly.
For this data, some analysts believe that the successful completion of 18 billion lithography machine orders means that the Netherlands has actually imposed a "reverse" restriction on the lithography machine ban. This view is also not without reason. Considering the expansion of the scope of restrictions on lithography machines, there are rumors in the market that repairs and replacement of parts for equipment shipped by ASML may be banned in the future, which will make these devices in our hands become "scrap metal" in a few years. Therefore, market dissatisfaction with ASML is likely to intensify at this moment. Some domestic companies have expressed concern that there will be more restrictions on the next step.
However, the opposite is actually true. Instead of reducing the purchase of orders for ASML equipment, Chinese domestic companies have increased the number of purchases, creating more demand prospects for ASML. For ASML, this is a huge amount of revenue, which is completely contrary to the original intention of the ban. Therefore, it has been suggested that this is a kind of reverse restriction in the Netherlands with the aim of making more profits before the ban comes into effect.
However, I personally do not fully agree with this view. On the one hand, ASML's order surge and revenue growth are mainly due to orders already placed by domestic enterprises, and ASML actively seeks to quickly deliver to the Chinese market, so there are relatively many orders completed in advance and on time, which also leads to the peak of import data.
On the other hand, even without a ban, the import data will not be low. After all, Japan's shipments to the Chinese market have been restricted by the ban, and domestic lithography machine equipment has been almost isolated, and can only rely on ASML from the Netherlands. Therefore, the demand for lithography machine equipment will continue to exist no matter what.
However, these data tell us that it is time to increase the speed of research and development and manufacturing of domestic lithography equipment. If we can't get shipments from ASML in the future, we won't be able to get lithography machine equipment. Finally, we hope that domestic companies can exert their strength and break through the current limitations. At that point, the situation may be reversed and it is no longer that we want to buy their equipment, but that they are eager to sell it to us.
To sum up, this situation has given rise to food for thought. At this critical moment, how China responds to the ban on lithography machines, as well as the future development of the domestic lithography equipment industry, deserve our in-depth discussion and attention. We look forward to commenting, liking and sharing this to discuss this important topic together.
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