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Hello everyone, I'm Fire Sect-kun, and today we will explore the scientific community's perspective on disaster prediction in 2021. Looking back on 2020, a magical start made the world sigh: What happened in this world? Last year's outbreak ravaged the globe and had far-reaching consequences in various fields. Although we managed to get through 2020, how did 2021 go? The scientific community has made some predictions for 2021, so let's explore today's topic.
In the face of disaster, people often fall into pain and suffering. If disasters are foreseen and preventive measures are taken, the damage and impact they cause will be greatly reduced. It is precisely based on the fear of disaster in people's hearts and the wide spread of the Internet that many so-called prophets have emerged, and some even cite the words of historical prophets such as Nostradamus, Jenny Dixon, Baba Vanga and other historical prophets as evidence.
However, these so-called prophets actually use the survivorship bias and maternal effect of psychology, as well as the use of ambiguous language in language expression, and use statistical techniques to achieve their goals. Therefore, their predictions are simply not credible.
Since the predictions of the prophets are unreliable, I will now sort out the scientific community's scenarios for a possible catastrophe in 2021.
1. The epidemic problem
Since the outbreak of the coronavirus outbreak last year, the impact of the pandemic has not subsided, and its impact is widely visible. Many fields such as economy and society have been greatly affected. Regarding the current situation of the epidemic, you can learn about it through the news media and other channels, so I will not expand on it here.
Second, the food crisis
According to the Global Food Crisis Report 2021, the number of people experiencing acute food insecurity reached their highest level in nearly five years in 2020. Last year, at least 155 million people worldwide were food insecure in 55 countries, an increase of about 20 million from the previous year. Since the first report was published in 2017, global food insecurity has gradually increased.
In the 55 food-crisis countries covered by the report, more than 75 million children under five are affected by stunting and 15 million are wasting.
According to the report, there are three main factors that contributed to the increase in acute food insecurity in 2020:
The first is conflict, with nearly 100 million people suffering from acute food insecurity in some 20 countries, up from 77 million.
The second is the economic shock, with economic problems caused by the pandemic pushing more than 40 million people into food insecurity in 17 countries.
Third, extreme weather events have left some 16 million people in 15 countries or regions facing severe food insecurity.
World Food Programme Executive Director David Beasley said at a special session of the United Nations General Assembly last year that 2021 could usher in the worst humanitarian crisis in nearly 75 years.
Third, climate issues
According to the latest forecast of the World Meteorological Organization, the global temperature increase may temporarily reach 1.5°C in the next five years. In the latest climate report, released on 27 May 2021, the global average annual temperature is expected to temporarily exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C in at least one of the next five years, with this chance gradually increasing over time. WMO Secretary-General Petri Taalas stressed that rising temperatures will lead to more extreme weather events such as ice melting, sea level rise and heat waves, with greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development.
According to the State of the Global Climate 2020, released by the World Meteorological Organization in April, 2020 was one of the three warmest on record, despite its cooling effect. The global average temperature is about 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. In the six years since 2015, six consecutive years have been the hottest on record. The years 2011 to 2020 were hailed as the hottest decade on record. In 2020, more than 80% of the ocean experienced at least one marine heatwave. Arctic region since the mid-80s of the 20th century
The Arctic is warming at least twice as fast as the global average. Last summer, Arctic sea ice extent reached a minimum of just 3.74 million square kilometers after melting, the second time on record that it fell to less than 4 million square kilometers.
In terms of forecasts for 2021, the Met Office predicts that the world will once again enter the hottest year series, with average global temperatures expected to be 0.91°C to 1.15°C above pre-industrial averages. This forecast is slightly lower than in previous years since 2015, mainly due to the influence of La Niña in the Pacific, which caused ocean surface temperatures in the region to be 1.0°C to 2.0°C below average.
To sum up, due to rising temperatures, the environment has triggered a series of climate disasters. The above three aspects are the scenarios that the scientific community has summarized for you about possible disasters in 2021.
In response to the predictions of these scientific communities, I think it is necessary to maintain rational thinking. While the problems presented in the forecast are serious, we should not be overly worried, because modern technology and global cooperation are expected to help us meet these challenges. In the case of outbreaks, for example, scientists are working to develop vaccines and treatments to contain the spread of the pandemic. In the context of the food crisis, international organizations and countries are strengthening food production and distribution to alleviate hunger. Climate issues require global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect the ecological environment.
To sum up, in the face of possible disasters in the future, we should maintain a positive attitude and actively participate in the efforts to solve problems. Scientific progress and global cooperation will be powerful weapons for our response to disasters. Let's work together for a better, healthier future.
Thank you for your attention, I am the Fire Sect Lord, I hope to bring you some thoughts through today's sharing. I wish you all a positive mindset and a healthy life. Thank you again for watching, bye!
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