There are still about ten days and a half to go before the large-scale harvest in the main wheat producing areas, and a strong wind has made this year's wheat a hot topic of discussion in recent days.
According to the weather forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, on May 15, there were 7~9 gusts in some areas of Shandong Peninsula, southern Henan, central Anhui, central and eastern Jiangsu, and 10~11 locally.
At this time, wheat has entered the end of grain filling, which is a critical period to promote grain fullness and increase 1000-grain weight.
In the eastern Henan region where the little helper is located, the wind is relatively light, and most of the wheat basically does not lodging, and some plots have a small area of lodging.
On the Internet, I saw that in Zhengzhou, Hebi, Xinxiang and other areas, some farmers posted videos showing that the wheat lodging was relatively serious, and the wheat in some plots was even all lodging, and the lodging degree was heavy, basically parallel to the ground.
Last year, wheat in some areas of Henan Province was also affected by "bad rain" when it was about to be harvested, and the yield and quality were reduced, and the income was reduced. And this year, it is about this time period, and there is windy weather, and for the lodging wheat fields, the income will be more or less reduced.
After seeing this situation, netizens also expressed a lot of opinions, among them, the little helper saw a point of view, and there were many agreeers, that is, it is better to let the wheat sell the green reserves, if the wheat is sold in early May, there will be no such thing as lodging now, and the income of farmers and friends will not be reduced.
In April this year, the issue of wheat green storage attracted some attention, and it was said that the wheat green reserve was 1,500 yuan/mu, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also urgently refuted the rumors, and there was no such thing.
If we do not consider other factors from the perspective of wheat income alone, the income of green wheat storage per mu may be higher than that of lodging wheat.
After the lodging of wheat, the effect on the yield varies depending on the severity of the lodging. If it is only slightly lodging and the lodging area is not large, the wheat can still grow normally, and it will have little effect on the yield.
If the lodging is more serious and the lodging area is relatively large, it will inevitably cause a certain reduction in production. If there is a lodging with a broken stem, the wheat can no longer grow, and the yield of mature wheat is zero.
At present, the price of new wheat is high and low due to different regions. The purchase price of some flour mills is about 1.25 yuan/jin, while the purchase price of some grassroots is only 1.16-1.18 yuan/jin this year. Take an intermediate number, assuming that it is calculated according to 1.20 yuan/catty.
Normal growth of wheat (wheat without lodging), the yield per mu is 1200 catties, 1.20 yuan per catty, and the total income is 1440 yuan.
The wheat (slight lodging) caused by the strong wind will be calculated according to 1,000 catties per mu, and the total income will be 1,200 yuan.
If it is a moderately lodging wheat field, the yield per mu is calculated according to 600 catties, and the total income is 720 yuan.
For the heavily lodging wheat field (the stalk has been broken), the wheat harvested at this time is not full, basically green grains, the yield per mu is calculated according to 300 catties, and the price will also be reduced, calculated according to 1 yuan / catty, and the total income is 300 yuan.
Judging from the above figures alone, it may be less than 1,500 yuan, and some friends said that it is better to sell green savings, after all, selling green savings has a high income.
However, don't ignore one question, that is, does 1500 yuan/mu really exist? Or is it fictional?
The first point is that how many farmers have sold the 1,500 yuan/mu green reserve? Is it not that everyone has seen this number from the Internet, is it hype? It's worth digging into.
The second point is that in 2022, the opening price of wheat in many places will be around 1.50 yuan/jin, and the highest price of wheat that year will be close to 1.70 yuan/jin. Assuming that the price is calculated at a price of 1.50 yuan/catty, the yield per mu is 1200 catties, and the total income is 1800 yuan.
At this time this year, the price of wheat is only about 1.20 yuan/catty, you can think about it, even if there is a person who collects green reserves, will he still harvest 1500 yuan/mu? For the lodging wheat, even if he is allowed to harvest green storage at 1,000 yuan/mu, it is estimated that he may not be able to harvest it. They are all people who do business, and this account is still very easy to calculate, not to mention that now if the wheat is not allowed to be sold in the green reserves, there will be no people who buy the wheat green reserves.
In April, the agricultural authorities in many places issued an initiative to strictly prohibit the cutting of green wheat and the destruction of wheat, which is a food ration, which is not the same as corn and is directly related to food security. If more green reserves are sold, wheat production will decline, which is not a good direction in the current environment.
Another point, we must know that the green storage is mainly feed, the purchase is limited, in today's relatively sluggish breeding industry, even if wheat can be used as a green storage, how much can it? What's more, the nutrients contained in the wheat itself are not the first choice for green storage, and for the aquaculture industry, it is impossible to spend a high price to harvest wheat green storage.
Now the price of corn has fallen to about 1.05-1.10 yuan / catty, using corn as feed, which is better than wheat green storage. In addition, when the corn green storage can be harvested around August, everyone will calculate this economic account.
After reading the above, are you still thinking about selling wheat green reserves?