The full text is 4900 words in total, mainly divided into five parts.
(i) Wagner rebelled, but France fell into civil strife
(2) Whether the French police can shoot if they do not cooperate with the inspection
(3) Internal causes are fundamental, incurable disease migration problems
(4) The economy has stagnated and internal contradictions have become increasingly intensified
(5) External causes are conditions, external causes of great riots
(i) Wagner rebelled, but France fell into civil strife
Under the changes of the past century, the world has become more and more magical. On June 24, I did not believe that the P5 would soon fall into civil strife, and I asserted in the article that Russia would soon be able to resolve the Wagner rebellion.
It wasn't until June 27 that I realized that I had wrongly blamed someone, and it turned out that he was talking about France. On June 27, French police shot and killed a 17-year-old black teenager, triggering a nationwide mass riot.
How outrageous this riot is, let's take a look at the figures released by the French Ministry of the Interior: during the four-day riots in France, there were 6,400 fires (arson incidents), 3,300 cars were burned, and thousands of shops were smashed and burned.
One of the more troublesome is that a gun shop in Marseille was also looted. France also allows guns, so there are gun shops, but France's gun control is stricter than in the United States. After a gun is purchased for zero yuan, it is a huge hidden danger.
Most outrageously, the largest library in Marseille, the second largest city in France, was set on fire by protesters. This library was founded at the end of the 19th century, and there are some cultural relics and ancient books stolen from China.
There is also a concern for the 2024 Paris Olympics, because the aquatic training center site has been burned. Although it can be rebuilt, the speed of France is doubtful, after all, Notre Dame, which burned down in 2019, has not yet been repaired.
For ordinary people, the current situation is a bit self-endangering. Last night, a car forcibly crashed into the home of the mayor of Lehileiros, Vincent Jeanbron, and then set it on fire, injuring Bren's wife and one of her children.
In order to quell the unrest, all 45,000 French police and gendarmes were mobilized. A total of 2,800 people were arrested and more than 300 police, gendarmerie and firefighters were injured in four days, although the unrest continued to intensify.
(2) If the police do not cooperate with the police, whether the French police can shoot
Let's talk about the merits of things. As mentioned earlier, the trigger was that the police in Paris killed a 17-year-old boy who could not be killed. The teenager's name was Nahel, and he could be said to be covered in buffs.
On June 27, Nahel drove a bright yellow Mercedes with Polish license plates to the Golden Arches for breakfast. As he exercised in the bus lane, he was stopped and checked by the police.
Probably because of the weakness of the driver's license (17 years old is not yet old enough to apply for a driver's license), he refused to check and tried to escape, and the moment he started the car, the police opened fire, the bullet pierced through the left arm into the chest, and the 17-year-old soon died.
So can the French police shoot? This has to be said from different angles, the French police have the French police. According to initial police reports, the unlicensed driver tried to drive into police.
But I guess he didn't want to hit the police, he was trying to escape. The video shows two police officers standing next to a stationary yellow Mercedes, one of whom pointed a gun at Nahel and appeared to say, "Watch out I hit your head."
In France, the police have several situations in which they can shoot: first, when their own lives are threatened; second, to prevent another occurrence of murder; Third, they must suppress a person who is trying to escape, and that person may threaten third parties; Fourthly, when motorists refuse to cooperate ...
It is this article 4 that is more controversial. Refusing to check and driving a card will definitely be killed in the United States. So why is the United States so powerful, the police can shoot if they don't agree with each other, and the people have nothing to say.
In China, it's the other extreme. Too merciful to the offenders who do not cooperate with the inspection and punching the card, even if they rush 10,000 bayonets, they will not be killed, generally deduct points and fines and be detained, and up to 10 days 500 yuan.
Even if a police officer was injured or even killed, it was only a few years in prison. There is a blogger on Weibo called traffic police Li Yong, who currently has 32,000 followers, and his latest Weibo post was posted on October 2, 2021, because he died the next day.
A previous Weibo post was posted on National Day, and he said: "I stand guard for the motherland. Wish: the country is strong and the people are prosperous! Long live the Motherland! On Martyrs' Day, he retweeted three tweets commemorating the martyrs, but a few days later he turned out to be a martyr.
On October 3, he conducted an investigation of the driver suspected of drunk driving on the highway, but the driver refused to cooperate and tried to escape by climbing over the railing, but this was on the bridge, and there was a culvert outside the railing...
At this time, out of the Chinese police's instinct to protect the masses, he grabbed the driver, and finally with the help of his colleagues, he dragged the driver up, and he fell down with too much force, unfortunately died. And on that day, it was his daughter's birthday...
What's more, after the driver was rescued, he did not hurry down to rescue his lifesaver, but chose to continue to escape, and was captured a few hours later, and finally was only sentenced to 4 years, at least should be punished as the crime of obstructing official duties, drunk driving and negligence!
Only the Chinese police can leave the hope of life to the target of law enforcement, because only the Chinese police are called the people's police. We should also respect the law enforcement power of the police and actively cooperate with the law enforcement work of the police.
Moving back to France, where drivers can also shoot if they refuse to cooperate with the police, there are already many precedents. In 2022, 13 people in France were killed while driving a car or riding a motorcycle for refusing to cooperate.
But this time the French policeman broke into trouble because the teenager buffed too much: first, minors; second, ethnic minorities; third, black North Africans (Moroccan and Algerian descent); Third, Muslims (Arabs).
(3) Internal causes are fundamental, and the immigration problem is a stubborn disease in France
France's immigration problem has become an incurable disease in France, and various contradictions are intensifying, France has long been put on the powder keg, and this shot of this policeman is the lighter that ignites the fuse.
There are many reasons why this incident developed into a nationwide riot, but they are mainly divided into two categories, one is internal and the other is external. Internal causes are fundamental, external causes are conditions; Internal causes play a decisive role, and external causes must act through internal causes.
Let's start with internal causes. The first is the backlash of French colonialism. France was once a colonial power comparable to the Great British Kingdom, but it could not fight Britain everywhere in North America, South Asia and Indochina, so it had to cultivate Africa.
In order to better win the hearts of the people and resolve the resistance of the colonial people, France introduced the "Naturalization Law" in 1912, allowing people born in the colony, with certain financial resources, who have held public office for more than 10 years or sworn allegiance to France.
This law gave hope to a large number of French colonists, who poured into France, including Arabs in North Africa, Kurds in the Middle East, blacks in West Africa, and mostly Islam.
After World War II, the French government continued to be open to immigration due to low fertility; In recent decades, the White Left has prevailed in France, while the ongoing turmoil in Africa and the Middle East, coupled with the lure of high welfare in France, has led to an influx of African refugees and illegal immigrants into France.
Since France prohibits the registration of ethnic groups, precise data are also not available. In fact, if you think about it, registering ethnic information is a good thing, conducive to management, conducive to adjusting immigration policies, and now France's ethnicity has become a confused account, and the government cannot figure out the details.
Anyway, from the perspective of the football team, the Gallic chicken has become the Gallic chicken. A black humor, in the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, in addition to the goalkeeper, Mbappe turned out to be the whitest of the players on the field.
Most of the main body of this riot are immigrant groups. Nowadays, there are already black anti-customers shouting on the Internet: white people get out of France, black people are the aborigines, and black people provide for France.
Of course, this sentence also makes sense, after all, modern France achieved primitive accumulation by bloody colonial plunder. Now it is just a backlash, which can also be said to be karma (it will have to be paid back sooner or later).
(4) The economy has stagnated and internal contradictions have become increasingly intensified
The second internal cause is France's economic problems. After World War II, Europe, including France, accepted the Marshall Plan of the United States and achieved decades of rapid economic growth, and France's welfare was quite high.
High welfare can alleviate class contradictions to a certain extent. Once the economy stagnates, high welfare will consume a lot of national financial resources, and state management will be unsustainable; Social management cannot keep up, the economy deteriorates further, and high welfare is unsustainable, and various contradictions will erupt in a concentrated manner.
France faces such a problem. France's economy, like Japan's, has stagnated. In 2008, France's GDP was 2.9 trillion, and in 2021 it will still be 2.9 trillion. As the population grew by 4 million (mainly immigrants), per capita actually declined.
Another indicator of France's decline is the value added of manufacturing. In 2008, the value added of French manufacturing was 325 billion US dollars, and by 2021 it has shrunk to 262 billion US dollars, a decline of nearly 20%.
If the economy is not working, it means that the employment situation is not good, which means that there are fewer jobs. If the economy does not work, it also means that fiscal revenue is not good, and welfare is not to be increased, and may even decrease.
So in France for many years, riots have been constant, and it is not just immigration. For example, the gilet yellow movement, or various general strikes, the main body is local whites, such as the March 16 riots.
On March 16, the French government imposed a reform bill on the retirement system, raising the retirement age from 62 to 64, and from 2027, the full pension will only be received after 43 years of service.
This moved everyone's cheese, so thousands of people across the country took to the streets, from demonstrations to violent riots, and then to smashing, robbing and burning zero yuan purchases.
Such riots are the norm in France. After entering 2023, similar chaos continues to play out in France, with multiple rounds of strikes in logistics, energy, shipping terminals, education and other fields. The strike of sanitation workers once led to a mountain of garbage in the city of Paris.
Why did Macron reform? Because after the economic stagnation, high welfare became a heavy financial burden for France. In 2020, France's social welfare spending accounted for 35% of its GDP, most of which was used to pay pensions to the elderly in France.
If the treasury is used to pay pensions, then there will be less money in other areas. Therefore, the space for the government to do something is getting smaller and smaller, after all, it is difficult for a woman to cook without rice. But this is again inexplicable, because the electoral system determines that whoever dares to cut benefits must step down.
Native whites were dissatisfied, as were immigrants. Coming to immigrate, they came with the French dream, and the idea before coming, even if they were engaged in the lowest work, was better than in Africa, so they must squeeze into the car and squeeze their heads to France.
But once you set foot in mainland France, the heartboard effect takes effect immediately. Why can you pagans eat and drink spicy food, while we can only do the hardest, most tiring and dirtiest work at the bottom?
Of course, in the eyes of French employers, these immigrants simply do not have the qualities they need, whether it is education level or vocational skills. So these migrants can't even find jobs at the bottom, and simply engage in prostitution, drug trafficking, gambling, robbery, etc.
Immigrants, whether legal or illegal, often live together because of language, race, and beliefs, and have become many countries within a country in France. In areas where migrants gather, French police are simply afraid to enter to enforce the law. Immigrants, on the other hand, rely on gangsters, rely on religion to maintain community order.
Native French and immigrants, seemingly living in the same city, are actually life separated. In the eyes of the locals, these people have stolen their jobs, and have also caused the deterioration of social security, and the contradictions between the two sides have become increasingly intensified.
So this time the riot was just a different group of people on the streets. Some of them really supported the teenager who was shot, while others fished in troubled waters, taking the opportunity to vent their dissatisfaction on the one hand, and buying for zero yuan on the other hand.
(5) External causes are conditions, external causes of great riots
After talking about internal causes, let's talk about external causes. The external cause is the condition, it is the catalyst. Catalysts we know do not change the properties of chemical reactions, but can accelerate chemical reactions (or drastically reduce them) tens of hundreds or thousands of times.
The first is the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which has made the European economy, including the French economy, even worse. Although the French economy has stagnated, it has to implement sanctions against Russia and China in accordance with the requirements of the United States, but sanctioning others is also equivalent to sanctioning itself.
Second, US hegemonism. The United States has taken advantage of its hegemonic position to engage in long-arm jurisdiction and wield the stick of trade sanctions at every turn, greatly disrupting the world supply chain system and seriously deteriorating the world economic situation.
Third, the American factor. Many people think that the CIA in the United States took the opportunity to engage in color revolutions, and I think this also makes sense. Because one of the great ways for the United States to export color revolutions is the Internet.
After mankind entered the information age, national sovereignty has expanded from territory, airspace and territorial waters to the Internet space. From an Internet perspective, most of the world is a cyber colony of the United States.
Almost all of France's most commonly used apps are controlled by the United States, ranking first is Facebook, followed by WhatsApp, Snapchat, Instagram, Twitter, etc., all of which are all American software.
Almost all of the fermentation of the matter and the spread of all kinds of inflammatory information are through these channels, and the French government is powerless in the face of this Internet tsunami. Discontent swelled online and quickly spread offline.
So French President Emmanuel Macron, bluntly argues that social media has contributed to the unrest online, and he has demanded that relevant platforms take responsibility and remove sensitive content.
He also mentioned online games. He said: "We feel that some of the people involved in the riots are homeless people living on the streets, who are addicted to video games. Of course, Macron is suspected of diverting targets.
One thing is certain, the US government has long required the network giants to connect their servers to the NSA (National Security Agency), and the US intelligence community monitors the network at all times, which can nip riots in the bud.
In addition, once a riot occurs, the US government can immediately order the deletion of posts, the ban, or even the shutdown of the Internet. On January 6, 2021, U.S. internet platforms were instructed to delete and ban certain content and accounts, including Trump's own account.
In this French riot, the US Internet platform is clearly a connivance attitude, which is called freedom of speech. I think this reflects the attitude of the US government, after all, France is a bit disobedient and dares to pursue European autonomy.
In addition, there is another American factor, that is, the proliferation of guns in the United States has also spread to the European continent. American capitalists (or the Department of Defense and the CIA) make money without principle, selling guns to Mexican drug cartels and even smuggling them into Europe.
In this riot in France, there were many banned guns. Even Musk couldn't help but ask, where did the weapons in the hands of the French protesters come from? According to British media reports, French police were shot by American rifles from Ukraine.
It must be recognized that although there are contradictions between the United States and France, they are also internal contradictions, and they are one camp as a whole. I estimate that the United States is just giving Macron a little color, and does not want to completely get rid of Macron.
Because Macron is relatively pro-American, remove him from power, and if it is the pro-Russian Le Pen and the pro-Chinese Mélenchon, it will be even more of a big trouble for the United States, so I estimate that the United States is at most knocking and knocking.
In the final analysis, it is the concentrated outbreak of class and racial contradictions in the context of France's economic stagnation. And these two contradictions are not unique to France, the whole of Europe is similar, so the riots in France are spreading to the surrounding areas.
So the world is magical, the United States and Russia are engaged in military wrestling in Ukraine, China and the United States are engaged in economic wrestling in the field of science and technology and trade, and when we have been observing who falls, France in Europe actually messed up first, and France is indeed the weaker link of developed countries.
This also proves once again that the boss and the second boss wrestle, and the first to fall may be the third and fourth. Europe has already begun to mess up, next is Britain, India, or Japan?