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Economic recovery, structural games, focus on AI+ core assets
This round of rebound focuses on both ends, differentiating the core assets of real AI and over-bearish rebound.
From June 8 to the present, in this round of rebound, we can see that the overall structural polarization is very different, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 with a small and medium-sized style are not as high as the CSI 100 and CSI 300 with obvious broader styles, and the ChiNext index is up more than 5%. The rise in core assets and ChiNext can be understood more as a valuation repair after the full release of pessimism. In terms of AI, the differentiation continues to exist, and the recent strong sector has returned to the computing power side, and the overall increase in computing power infrastructure since late May has exceeded 12%. From the indicators of differentiation degree and money-making effect, the earning effect of the top 20 stocks has rebounded more than the degree of differentiation, and the center of differentiation is still lower than the level from the end of March to the beginning of May.
Under the steady recovery, the trading game is strong, and some of the recent market transaction weights are still in follow-up policy expectations and incremental policies. At the successful holding of the 14th Lujiazui Financial Forum, the responsible person of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration said that it would step up efforts to restore and expand effective demand, strengthen financial support for new consumption and service consumption, and promote the consumption of new energy vehicles. The person in charge of the People's Bank of China pointed out that the work of green finance will be resolutely placed in a prominent position. The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said that it will unswervingly follow the road of development of modern capital market with Chinese characteristics, accurately and efficiently support scientific and technological innovation, and adhere to the main business of supervision, and market trading sentiment has been boosted by this. On June 13, OMO was lowered ahead of schedule, and MLF was lowered on the 15th, further benefiting the A-share market. At the same time, the recent rebound of new energy vehicles also reflects the expectation that the National Development and Reform Commission has promoted the introduction of relevant policies and local responses under the main purpose of expanding domestic demand and promoting the consumption of new energy vehicles. Under the composite caliber of multiple broad-based indexes, this round of rebound began with policy protection and confidence boost.
More similar to the steady recovery, PMI rushed back after the shock upward, corporate earnings climbed. From the PMI rush back back to the second shock upward process, there are three comparable intervals in history. 1) 2012-2013: PMI rose from 50.5 in January 2012 to 53.3 in April and began to decline, and began a new round of volatility after falling below the boom-dry line in August; 2) 2016: PMI rose in February-March, fell below the boom-bust line from April to July, and rose again after August; 3) 2019-2020: PMI continued to fluctuate below the boom and bust line after a brief surge in March-April 2019, and the upward momentum was more obvious after the first round of the epidemic in 2020.
Compared with the profitability of all A and non-A in the corresponding range, corporate earnings rose in 2012Q3-2013Q4 and 2016Q3-2016Q4, exogenous forces promoted corporate profits upward, and PMI rose again after rushing back; In 2019, under the circumstances of domestic and foreign trade frictions and liquidity concerns caused by equity pledges, the private economy was damaged to a certain extent, corporate profits were in a downward range, and PMI failed to quickly return to the boom and bust line.
Compared with the common characteristics of the rebound in the above period, the military industry performed relatively well, and the TMT was stronger than the full A overall. In the rebound from December 2012 to mid-February 2013, the defense industry, non-banking and banking performed relatively well, with food and beverages and steel significantly lagging behind the full A, and all four TMT industries slightly outperformed the full A; In the rebound from May 2016 to July 2016, the national defense industry, nonferrous metals, electronics, computers, and communications rose first, banks, real estate, and transportation lagged significantly behind the whole A, the TMT industry diverged, electronics, computers, and communications significantly outperformed the full A, and the media recorded an increase in the bottom 1/3 of all primary industries.
The stage of rebound or continued to rise, policy strength, recovery strength, fundamental hardness may become the follow-up winner. 2013: Stable recovery, moderate monetary policy strength, and no significant improvement in fundamental hardness. In 2013 compared to 2012, due to the stimulation of the "new round" of economic policies, the overall economic situation was marginally improved, the rebound ended earlier, and the subsequent oscillation trend was mainly caused by the early end of QE and two "money shortages". The February 21 FOMC minutes mentioned QE or ended early, somewhat disrupting the strong rally from late 2012 to February 2013. In addition, from the perspective of monetary policy, in June 2013, when some banks had large-scale default deliveries and overnight repo rates rose, we did not see the initiation of reverse repurchase and SLO, and liquidity contraction intensified. At the end of the year, during the rise of Shibor's 7-day repo weighted average rate to the next high after June, the central bank also did not use reverse repo, only SLO. From the perspective of fundamental indicators such as electricity consumption and freight volume, the economic recovery in the first half of 2013 was stronger than in the second half, but monetary policy hedged the pressure of this recovery to a certain extent.
2016: Weak recovery→ strong recovery, strong policy strength under supply-side reform, ROE consolidates the fundamentals of listed companies. The supply-side reform initiated in 2015-2016 has improved the sensitivity and flexibility of supply factors such as labor, land, and capital to the demand side, and further improved total factor productivity. "Three to one reduction and one supplement," that is, to remove the excess production capacity with low profits and high pollution, to deleveraging, to remove inventory, and at the same time to reduce costs and make up for shortcomings, was a high-quality development measure in the context of overcapacity and high leverage at that time. Supply-side reform coupled with the recovery of operating rate at the end of Q2, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises is obviously better, the recovery intensity and the fundamental hardness of listed companies have been boosted, and the valuation system reshaping (buying ROE instead of short-term high growth rate of extension consolidation) perspective, core assets and large-capitalization weighted stocks drive the broad-based index to continue to rise.
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