Text | Lin groaned softly
Edit | Lin groaned softly
Sources: All statements in this article are based on sources believed to be reliable
Preface
Modi is proud of India's economic growth, and the American media Bloomberg released news that India will surpass China in 2028, and India has decided to attract 100 billion investment in the next 5 years to achieve this goal as soon as possible.
Is Bloomberg fooling India? Can India really surpass China?
Surpass China to become a global engine
On February 29 this year, Modi posted on his social platform that India's GDP grew by 8.4%, and he felt that India must have great potential for future development if it had such a GDP growth rate.
Modi also believes that he has the ability to lead 1.4 billion Indians to a better life, and everyone is familiar with the figure of 1.4 billion people, and the mainland population is also more than 1.4 billion.
The mainland is also often compared to India, for example, when Modi was full of confidence in India's future, Bloomberg released a news release saying that India will surpass China in 2028.
Bloomberg believes that India can not only surpass China, but also become the engine leading global economic growth, and this news was publicized by the Indian media as soon as it was released.
On April 6 this year, Bloomberg released news to strengthen India's belief, for example, they announced that in the past five years, India has attracted an average of 70 billion US dollars per year, and India is also convinced of this data, thinking that they can absorb investment in the past five years, and of course they can also absorb foreign investment in the future.
India has set itself a plan to make the amount of foreign investment it can attract more than 100 billion US dollars in a five-year period, because they do not really understand their ability to attract foreign investment.
Source: Huanqiu.com2024-04-08 "India Sets Target: Attracting Hundreds of Billion US Dollars of Foreign Investment on Average Every Year in the Next 5 Years"
On the surface, India's ability to attract foreign investment in the past five years is not weak, but if we take out the year 2023 alone, India's ability to attract foreign investment is declining compared with the past.
The reason is very simple, India has launched a "pig slaughter" campaign, whether it is a Chinese company, a Japanese company, a South Korean company or an American company that goes to India to invest and build factories, India can "treat everyone equally".
For example, on January 4 this year, Jimu News also emphasized that India froze the mainland company Xiaomi 4.8 billion yuan, in addition to Xiaomi, the companies that suffered losses also include VIVO, ZTE, etc.
There is a reason why India can target these companies, they know that they have already taken root in India and are starting to enter the stage of stable operation and making money.
It means that after a large amount of investment in India, mainland enterprises finally have the hope of recovering costs and achieving profits, and they will not easily leave India unless they have to.
India singled out such enterprises, pointing out that they were guilty of "tax evasion", "fraud", "stealing profits" and other crimes, and brought losses to Chinese enterprises at the lowest cost.
In addition to companies such as Xiaomi, Foxconn has also been cheated in India, but India can still attract large enterprises to invest and build factories there, which has a lot to do with India's innate advantages.
It's right in Modi's hands
India's population has reached 1.417 billion, while the Chinese population is 1.41 billion, and the gap between the two sides in terms of population is not large, but it is an indisputable fact that India has become the most populous country in the world.
The large population means that India has a clear advantage over countries such as the mainland in terms of the number of labor.
Coupled with the fact that India's level of development is lagging behind that of China, the wage level of Indian workers is naturally lower than that of mainland workers.
However, India's land area is not as large as that of the mainland, and the space for them to build factories is relatively limited compared to the mainland.
But Tesla is still willing to risk being frozen by India, and also to invest in the United States to build factories, for example, in April this year, Tesla will build a production plant in India.
Tesla has factories not only in India, but also in mainland China and Europe, so that they can sell their products to more places, and this year they did not hesitate to invest $3 billion in India to achieve this purpose.
Modi also seized on this groundbreaking wealth, so that the country's car production, auto parts incentives to keep up, that is, to retain Tesla's production plants, they also want to attract more relevant manufacturers to invest in India.
Whether it is India's vast market or low production costs, it has attracted Tesla and other companies to rush to India with technology and production lines, to help India replace China and gradually obtain the title of "world factory".
Becoming the "world's factory" is only the first step in a long march, and the question that Indians are more concerned about is whether their economic development level can go up.
We all know that to improve the level of economic development, it is inseparable from industrial upgrading, only the more high-end products produced, the higher the efficiency of making money, but India does not have the advantage of producing high-end products.
So when Modi was busy helping India to attract investment, India's "Business Standard" poured cold water on it, pointing out that India's ability to attract foreign investment is not optimistic, because the whole world environment is not particularly conducive to attracting foreign investment.
If it can't attract too much foreign investment, India still has to do a good job in manufacturing and take its own country to achieve industrial transformation step by step, because industry plays a role that cannot be ignored in India's development.
On April 30 this year, Globo published a news release, referring to a Bloomberg statistical result, which also pointed out the gap between India and the mainland.
Bloomberg believes that in 2028, it will be either China or India that will replace the United States as the world's largest economy, but it remains to be seen who will become the world's largest economy.
On April 28 this year, the "Hindu" newspaper released a message saying that India's dependence on imported Chinese goods is gradually deepening.
Source: Huanqiu.com2024-05-13 "Indian Think Tank: China Surpasses the United States to Become India's Largest Trading Partner Again"
Because in the past 15 years, the proportion of industrial goods imported by India from China, which used to be 21%, has now risen to 30%, and these industrial goods are mainly products that have been deeply processed by the mainland.
In addition to industrial products, there are also textile products and electronic products, and the proportion of goods exported from the mainland to India is generally more than 60%, and some even exceed 90%.
The commodities imported by the mainland from India are mainly mineral products, metals and other products, and these products are not high in added value compared with the products exported to India by the mainland in large quantities.
To put it simply, India spends more money on mainland goods than the mainland on Indian goods, with the mainland having a trade surplus and India having a trade deficit.
Trade between China and India, whether in surplus or deficit, is beneficial to both sides, but India still has a long way to go to solve the problem of India's production capacity hidden behind them.
In the process of development, we will always hear some different voices, but no matter what others say, it will not affect our firm pace of moving forward, and I believe that time will prove everything.
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