The AI boom remains high, and you catch up with me in various segments, and the technology market is developing in depth. Below, give friends an in-depth analysis of the in-depth market logic, operation context and future trends of this round of technology market, so that we can better grasp the next market.
The story of this round of technology quotes:
The first wave is driven by information and innovation, in the face of external pressure, independent and controllable is the way out, and only core technological breakthroughs can be based on science and technology power.
The second wave is driven by the digital economy, which is the continuation of investment expansion and stable growth, new infrastructure is the starting point, and the digital economy has become the focus of policy.
The third wave is driven by AI, ChatGPT is born, artificial intelligence has become the world's strongest outlet, major technology giants compete for layout, governments vigorously promote development, and the stock market is rushing up, simply not too hot.
"Everything can be AI" has become the industry consensus, and "AI is required when dead" has become the stock market consensus. Without adding AI varieties to the position combination, just like cooking without salt, it will be light and tasteless, and it is easy to fall on the head when walking.
Why? There is no AI in the hand, there is no spectrum in the heart, there is no bottom under the feet, and I am afraid of missing the technology market and being uneasy, isn't this anxiety easy to fall over? Of course, this is a joke, and now we have to get down to business.
--01--
How long can the tech market go crazy?
I study the stock market and have always liked to do reasoned analysis, and the last thing I like is talking about it. So, the point you see in me, whether it is right or wrong, has a derivation process, is logically supported, and is well documented. I think this is more reliable than a full mouth of train-style stock reviews anyway.
The last round of technology market with the Internet as the core began in December 2012 and ended in June 2015, lasting 42 months;
The last round of science and technology market with domestic substitution as the core began in 2018.10 and ended in 2021.7, lasting 34 months;
This round of technology market with information innovation, digital economy, and AI as the core began in April 2022 and has lasted 15 months to run, which is far from the previous two rounds of technology market. This is one of the important reasons why I have emphasized many times earlier that this round of technology market will eventually evolve into a cross-year market.
Let's take another look at the data pattern of institutional hype in history.
The first big blue chip huddle started in February 2016 and ended in January 2018, lasting 24 months.
The second big blue chip huddle started in January 2019 and ended in February 2021, lasting 26 months.
The last round of pro-cyclical huddles began in March 2020 and ended in September 2022, lasting 31 months.
From the duration of the institutional hype, we can see that there is no less than 24 months.
This round of technology market has only been running for 15 months, and there are still 7 months left according to the most conservative 24 months.
No matter how hot the technology market is, it is almost impossible to pull to the head in one go, and there must be a shock wash in the middle, and then the length of the institutional pan shipment time after the hype, and easily a year has passed.
According to our calculations, this round of technology market has at least one year to go. If there are some more "moths" in the international political and economic situation later, some crisis or conflict breaks out, and some waves of major adjustments are added in the middle, then the entire time cycle will rise.
Through my analysis, you should understand that the technology market still has to play from the time cycle, so there is no need to rush to chase up for a while, where is there a market that only rises but does not fall? Later it will definitely give a good opportunity. Investment must be patient, anxious to eat hot tofu, it is not a good habit to take chestnuts in the fire.
--02--
How high is the tech market?
In the last round of the Internet-centered technology market, the Internet rose 15.2 times, software rose 8.8 times, IT rose 7.7 times, and media rose 6.4 times.
In the last round of science and technology market with domestic substitution as the core, semiconductors rose 4 times, chips and components rose 2 times.
In the last round of pro-cyclical huddles, chemicals, nonferrous metals, and coal all rose more than 2 times, and only steel had the worst elasticity, with an increase of 1.6 times.
In recent years, the main sectors have hardly risen less than 2 times.
The biggest increase in this round of technology market is the state-owned asset cloud, which has risen only 1.2 times, and many sub-sectors have risen by about 1 times, most of which are below 1 times.
Taking history as a guide, this round of technology market is far from the craziest time, and there is still better room for growth in the future.
--03--
Is a short-term rally an opportunity or a risk?
Today's science and technology market is crazy again, People's Daily released a commentary: accelerate the development of a new generation of artificial intelligence, Chinese Academy of Sciences: independent development of a new generation of artificial intelligence large model Zidong Taichu came out, two news and blow AI to the cusp.
Although the current technology market is enchanting and moving, as tempting as a red apple, it cannot be gluttonous. There are two reasons for this:
First, most sub-sectors have risen to strong pressure levels.
Taking the communication sector as an example, although it rose sharply today, it has reached the strong pressure level on the monthly line, and it is extremely unwise to chase up this position before breaking back to confirm it.
Another example is the software services sector, which is not much away from the historical strong pressure level.
When many plates in the same theme rush into the strong resistance range, then beware of the main force will take the opportunity to wash the market.
Do not chase up under pressure, do not kill and fall on the support level, this is the basic trading rhythm. If you always chase up and open positions at pressure levels, you will eventually shed tears of regret in the long run, you don't have a long memory, the market will teach you a long memory.
The more crazy the market, the more you have to stay calm. In this situation, there are two solutions:
1. Find opportunities for the stop point of the fall in case of resistance.
2. Look for opportunities when the breakout is back to confirm that it rises again.
Second, after a series of rises, a huge amount of profit orders have been accumulated, and a more adequate pullback is needed to release profit orders.
Although the overall rise of this wave of technology market sector index is not large, many individual stocks have risen very much, and the market has accumulated a huge amount of profit orders, which need a more adequate wash to release profit selling pressure.
In the next two weeks, the technology sector is expected to produce a huge earthquake, and it should not be too enthusiastic to chase up.
Summary: In the medium term, the technology market is not yet in place in terms of time and space, and there is a lot to do, but short-term risks cannot be ignored.
The above content is only a personal opinion and is not instructive.