Margaret Thatcher was the first female Prime Minister in British history and served for eleven years. During her tenure, she was known for her strong diplomatic skills, and the Soviet media dubbed her the "Iron Lady".
But there was a diplomatic setback in her political career that she never forgot, even when she wrote Thatcher's Memoirs years later.
In her memoirs, she wrote that since September 1982, "Britain's world position, and my own position, have changed because of Falkland's victory, and the only setback at this time should be the negotiations with the Chinese Communists on the Hong Kong issue."
From July 1983 to September 1984, formal Negotiations between China and the Uk and The United Kingdom lasted fourteen months, with 22 rounds of talks. Mrs. Thatcher visited China four times to consult with Comrade Deng Xiaoping on some controversial issues.
Before her first meeting in China, she had just won the war with Argentina in the Falkland Islands, retained British control of the Falkland Islands, and her domestic and international status and prestige were no different. So before coming to China, she was actually full of spirit and confidence.
But after more than a decade of negotiations, she finally had to exclaim: "This is not a victory, nor can it be a victory, because we are fighting against an uncompromising superpower with overwhelming superiority." ”
"It can't be a victory", this sentence is Thatcher's self-deprecation after reviewing the entire negotiation process, and it is also a reality at the time. In fact, from the very beginning, Margaret Thatcher did not have any hole cards in her hands that could guarantee the success of the negotiations, let alone the advantage. What she thought of as a hole card at the beginning meant nothing. This negotiation is doomed to be a failure.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="10" > Thatcher's decision to negotiate had no advantage in itself</h1>
Based on Thatcher's past approach to foreign affairs, she has always insisted on tough confrontation to deal with disputes. Whether in the face of the Soviet Union, in the face of the global wave of socialism, or in the face of Argentina's desire to retake the Falkland Islands, Thatcher never compromised.
For Argentina, she chose to directly confront by force and launched a war.
Located in the south of South America, the Falkland Islands, separated from Britain by the entire Atlantic Ocean, faced serious logistical and military support problems in starting a war. But in this situation, Thatcher resolutely chose war. Her foresight and boldness impressed the world, and her style and policies were once called "Thatcherism".
But such an "Iron Lady" did not continue to be tough when faced with the Hong Kong issue.
Margaret Thatcher had two options: to ignore the imminent expiration of the 99-year lease and refuse to return it as she had done to the Falkland Islands, and to take any tough measures, including force and economic confrontation;
Mrs. Thatcher chose the second path with little hesitation.
In the 1870s, according to the 1898 "Special Article on The Expansion of Hong Kong Boundary Sites", the 99-year lease period in the New Territories was facing the fate of coming to an end. Based on some deficiencies in understanding of China, there have been serious waves of immigration and capital flight in Hong Kong in advance, and they feel that Hong Kong's prospects are confused and full of uncertainty, and they are worried that the "Hong Kong phenomenon" in high-speed development will become a bubble.
This has had a huge impact on Hong Kong's prosperity and stability, as well as its status as a trade center and an international financial center. The question of Hong Kong's ownership is on the agenda. To this end, Margaret Thatcher sent The Governor of Hong Kong, MacLehose, to Beijing in March 1979 and first expressed her willingness to negotiate on the Hong Kong issue.
In fact, on the Chinese side, since the founding of New China, Chairman Mao and Premier Zhou and other major leaders have already begun to consider it. Comrade Deng Xiaoping, on the other hand, has been thinking about solutions to the Hong Kong problem since the second half of 1978.
The first is at what time and in what way to resolve the Hong Kong issue; the other is how to continue to ensure Hong Kong's prosperity and stability after Hong Kong's return to the motherland. Although the policy of "one country, two systems" was not very clearly systematized at this time, the basic idea had already taken shape in his mind. In fact, the Chinese side has always been very concerned about the Hong Kong issue.
Margaret Thatcher did not choose to treat Argentina the same way, for the simple reason that in her heart she believed that China was a superpower different from Argentina. Whether it was the original War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, or the invention of atomic and hydrogen bombs later, as well as China's tough attitude toward Western countries, Thatcher felt that she could not act recklessly.
By choosing to negotiate, and by proposing it first, her initiative has vanished. The failure to resolve the Hong Kong issue not only hinders China's territorial integrity and sovereignty, but also greatly affects Hong Kong's economic development and British interests.
Thatcher and Britain's eagerness to negotiate was immediately exposed to the Chinese side, and the opportunity to solve the problem had been lost and the war had been defeated.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="21" > in Hong Kong, Margaret Thatcher has no international allies and is isolated</h1>
After World War II, on the international stage at that time, The United Kingdom and other European countries were no longer the protagonists, and the United States and the Soviet Union became the two giants that dominated the international situation. If Britain wants to gain an edge in negotiations with China, it will inevitably need to seek allies internationally. Thatcher's policy was to oppose the Soviet Union and socialism, and it was impossible to get support from the Soviet Union. Then her only option was the United States.
However, the attitude of the United States in the Sino-British negotiations on Hong Kong was decided in accordance with its own interests. Academia summed up the Attitude of the United States in one word: "Low-profile intervention." ”
What kind of policy is this?
Based on the performance of the Americans, this policy can be summed up in two points: the first is to avoid explicit support for the British side and any Chinese side as much as possible. On January 20, 1984, Eugene Rosen, a senior U.S. Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs, made it clear about the Sino-British negotiations on Hong Kong:
"Despite our great interest in the negotiation process, we do not intend to express our views. We believe it is ultimately possible to reach a peaceful and satisfactory solution to preserve Hong Kong's investment climate and political and economic freedom. Although the United States is interested, we strictly regard it as a problem between China and Britain. ”
In January 1984, when Britain was in a negotiating dilemma, you, the governor of Hong Kong at the time, asked the Americans for help, hoping that they would give support and put pressure on the Chinese side with the British. But this was rejected by Eugene. On June 7, 1984, U.S. Consul General Levin told the Asia Society in New York: "Although the United States has great interests in Hong Kong, the United States does not intend to play any role in the negotiations." ”
The United States has always been an ally of Britain, and after World War II, with the strong rise of the United States, Britain once became a loyal follower of the United States. But even so, the United States has not explicitly expressed its support. The United States did not speak, and it is even more unlikely that other European countries will be able to make their position clear.
Chinese scholar Shen Benqiu pointed out in the paper: "Because the United Kingdom has not found a helping hand in the international community, the United Kingdom feels that it cannot dominate the overall situation in the negotiations on the 'Hong Kong issue' alone, so it gradually adopts an attitude of cooperation with the Chinese side." ”
International isolation has led to Margaret Thatcher's inability to gain an advantage in negotiations with the Chinese side. On April 20, 1984, the British authorities issued a press conference in Hong Kong, in which they said: "It is unrealistic to have an agreement to bring Hong Kong under British rule after 1997." ”
Even the British officials have not seen victory, how can the negotiations be "successful"?
Another point of the US "low-profile intervention" policy is to give appropriate warnings to China, and the so-called "indirect pressure" is also.
On the one hand, the United States exerts pressure through another issue involving China's territorial and sovereign integrity, cross-strait relations. On the one hand, it has consciously or unconsciously expressed its hope that the Sino-British negotiations will give Hong Kong a "secure future". The United States will not intervene in the negotiations between China and the British side, but the outcome of the negotiations must ensure that Hong Kong's prosperity and stability can continue to be maintained and that it will not hinder US interests in Hong Kong. At that time, the Chinese side clearly had an advantage, and these words of the United States were actually spoken to China. It's really putting pressure on indirectly.
Although the United States did not explicitly express its support for which side, its attitude actually helped China and suppressed Britain to a certain extent. This is not to say how friendly and intimate the United States is to China, but to its own interests and policies.
On the one hand, at that time, it was in the period of hegemony between the United States and the Soviet Union, and China was a very powerful developing country, and being able to gain China's support would play a great role in the superiority of the United States in the international situation.
Second, the United States established diplomatic relations with China in the 1970s, and the two countries are now in a "honeymoon" period, and it is unwilling to undermine the foreign policy and layout of the United States because of this incident.
Third, Hong Kong is closely linked to the Chinese mainland, its living materials and water sources are heavily dependent on the mainland's supply, and although its economic status is very important, its strategic position is not very high, and it is not the center of the US layout in East Asia. So hong Kong's return to China, the United States actually does not mind too much.
Fourth, at that time, China's reform and opening up made the United States feel that China's development direction was more and more inclined to them, and China's implementation of the "one country, two systems" policy, retaining Hong Kong's original management model, and insisting on maintaining Hong Kong's prosperity and stability, all of which made the United States very moved. The United States does not want to interrupt this development process in China because of the Hong Kong issue. Moreover, the interests of the United States in Hong Kong will not be harmed. Naturally, the United States does not choose to intervene.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" Data-track="35" > Deng Xiaoping's tough and uncompromising attitude, margaret Thatcher could not find any opportunity</h1>
Richard Evans, the British negotiator at the time, once made a joke to the Chinese negotiator Zhou Nan: "Can diaoyutai really catch fish?" ”
It's a joke, but it shows the british in the negotiations.
In fact, Margaret Thatcher knew that it was impossible to gain sovereignty over Hong Kong, although she insisted on the three major treaties signed between the Qing government and the British on the Hong Kong issue from the beginning. Her initial goal was to raise the issue of Hong Kong's sovereignty through a treaty, and then take a step back in the Chinese bargaining and exchange sovereignty for management rights. She actually wants to take advantage of the loophole in the negotiation and catch more "fish".
But her wishful thinking was completely wrong.
When Margaret Thatcher proposed the three major treaties of British ownership of Hong Kong, Comrade Deng Xiaoping directly stated China's attitude and position: "China wants to reclaim not only the New Territories, but also Hong Kong Island and Kowloon. It was on this premise that China and britain negotiated ways and means to resolve the Hong Kong issue. ”
The one-China principle is a prerequisite for all negotiations.
Regarding the recovery of Hong Kong, Deng Xiaoping expressed an unusual determination. He said to Margaret Thatcher:
"If China does not take Hong Kong back in 1997, 48 years after the founding of the People's Republic of China, no Chinese leader or government can account to Chinese people." If it is not taken back, it means that the Chinese government is the government of the late Qing Dynasty, and the Chinese leader is Li Hongzhang... If it is not taken back after fifteen years, the people have no reason to trust us... There is no other choice. ”
What a determination.
More importantly, China does not just use negotiations as the only means of recovering Hong Kong.
Comrade Xiaoping said: "What if there are serious fluctuations in Hong Kong during the fifteen-year transition period? At that point, the Chinese government will be forced to think differently about when and how to take it back. ”
If you want to fight, he even said directly to Margaret Thatcher that Chinese is not afraid of death.
Deng Xiaoping's tough attitude completely disrupted Thatcher's plans, and when she heard these words, she even suddenly turned pale. At the end of the day, when the negotiations were over and down the steps, due to absent-mindedness, he stepped on the steps and fell to his knees on the ground. It has also become a far-reaching lens in the history of diplomacy.
Later, Margaret Thatcher came up with what she considered the biggest killer, declaring that Only under the management of the British could Hong Kong prosper, and without Britain, Hong Kong would fall into economic stagnation.
Deng Xiaoping had long thought of a countermeasure for this, that is, the "one country, two systems" policy - Hong Kong is still moving forward according to the original path and way, and China will not interfere after it takes hong Kong back. Tang Gong firmly believes that Hong Kong, in the hands of the Chinese government, can also ensure prosperity and stability.
Thatcher's biggest hole card is more like a strong argument, unreasonable and unreasonable, doomed to be the reason why Britain won the right to administer Hong Kong.
The British, seeing that these demands could not be met, began to propose details such as china's inability to station troops in Hong Kong; for example, between 1984 and 1997, China could not establish any transitional structures in Hong Kong. But all this was resolutely rejected by Comrade Deng Xiaoping.
Deng Xiaoping believed that Hong Kong was part of China's sovereignty, so why couldn't China garrison Hong Kong? In order to smoothly complete the transition, China has established a committee in Hong Kong.
After the Sino-British negotiations were reached, the United Kingdom launched an economic storm on September 24, 1984, in order to hinder a smooth transition in Hong Kong. While they released rumors of a breakdown in Sino-British negotiations and operated economically, Hong Kong stocks plummeted overnight and the Exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the dollar fell to its lowest level in history. There has been a frenzied selling of stocks and a run on the dollar in Hong Kong's financial markets. Not only that, there has been a frenzy in the Hong Kong market to buy various commodities such as daily necessities, and merchants have taken the opportunity to raise prices in a big way, and the original 18 yuan a bag of rice has been raised to 23 yuan.
Hong Kong media dubbed the storm a "Black Saturday." At that time, the Hong Kong newspaper commented on the matter: On this "black Saturday", the stock market went crazy, the market went crazy, and the Hong Kong people were also frightened.
In response to this threatening tactic, Deng Xiaoping's countermeasures were still tough. At that time, Deng Xiaoping was meeting with Kim Il Sung, who had come to visit in Dalian, and he said to Kim Il Sung:
"I made it clear to Margaret Thatcher that if this transition period does not transition well, there will be chaos between now and 1997, and to the point where it cannot be passed, China will consider the time and the way to take it back." Time is advance, and the way is force. ”
He believes that if problems arise in Hong Kong during the transition period, affecting its role as an international trade center and financial center, what if there is chaos? Then we had to send the army to garrison in advance, and there was no other choice. At the end, he directly pointed out: China is not Argentina. China is not a country that Britain can do whatever it wants.
Under Deng Xiaoping's tough stance, coupled with the fact that the British cabinet does not want real chaos in Hong Kong's economy, this not only involves their huge economic interests, but also involves the economic interests of the United States.
So this "Black Saturday" was only a Saturday, the situation soon stabilized, and Thatcher's plan was once again frustrated.
When Margaret Thatcher conducted the negotiations on the Sino-British Hong Kong issue, it can be said that she was facing many constraints, and it is not an exaggeration to describe it as "embattled".
Internationally, she does not support the countries, at home, she can not get the full support of all forces, at the negotiating table with China, she does not dare to act arbitrarily like Argentina in the face of this superpower, and she can not find any flaws, can not get any compromises.
It can be said that the operation is as fierce as a tiger, but in the end most of the ideas have failed. The iron lady of steel also had to become soft around the fingers in front of China.